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Macro News

1. In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of month-on-month growth. This also marks a return to the expansion range after running below 50% for five consecutive months.

2. The central bank announced that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, in October 2024, the People's Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan reverse repo operation with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, adopting a multi-price bidding method; to increase the counter-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking system, in October 2024, the People's Bank of China conducted open market treasury bond buying and selling operations, with a net purchase of 200 billion yuan in bond face value throughout the month.

3. Both China and the US had professional, pragmatic, candid, and constructive communications on financial policy issues of mutual concern, including macroeconomic and financial conditions and monetary and financial policies. The Chinese side introduced a package of policies from financial management departments to support stable economic growth, including two tools from the People's Bank of China to support the stable development of capital markets: the Securities, Fund, and Insurance Company Swap Facility (SFISF) and Stock Repurchase and Increase Re-loan.

4. The US core PCE price index for September recorded an annual rate of 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month, and the month-on-month rate was 0.3%, rebounding from the previous month (0.2%).

5. Media reports citing Israeli intelligence indicate that Iran is preparing to launch a large-scale retaliatory action against Israel through armed forces within Iraq, possibly before the US election day.

Global Futures Market Anomalies

1. Domestic commodity futures closed mostly lower in the night session, with energy and chemical products showing mixed results, low-sulfur fuel oil up 1.06%, soda ash down 2.42%, glass down 1.54%. The black series fell across the board, with iron ore down 2.05%, rebar down 1.63%, coking coal down 1.25%, coke down 1.23%, and hot-rolled coil down 1.14%. Agricultural products showed mixed results, with white sugar up 1.23% and palm oil up 1%. Most base metals closed lower, with stainless steel down 1.03%, Shanghai zinc down 1%, Shanghai nickel down 0.87%, Shanghai lead down 0.75%, Shanghai copper down 0.25%, and alumina up 0.72%. Shanghai gold down 1.61%, Shanghai silver down 2.57%.

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with US oil for December rising 2.8%, priced at $70.53/barrel, a monthly increase of 3.46%. Brent oil for January 2025 rose 2.51%, priced at $73.97/barrel, a monthly increase of 3.29%.

3. International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.67% at $2754.1/ounce, and COMEX silver futures down 3.74% at $32.8/ounce. In October, COMEX gold futures rose 3.56%, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.27%.

4. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) major agricultural futures contracts closed mixed, with soybean futures up 0.53% at 996.5 cents/bushel; corn futures down 0.06% at 411.25 cents/bushel, and wheat futures down 0.22% at 572 cents/bushel.

5. Most base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper up 0.09% at $9,547/ton, LME zinc down 1.59% at $3,037.5/ton, LME nickel down 0.51% at $15,735/ton, LME aluminum up 0.38% at $2,626/ton, LME tin up 1.37% at $31,375/ton, and LME lead up 1.65% at $2,037/ton.

Hot Black Series News

1. According to the Steel Logistics Professional Committee of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the steel industry PMI for October 2024 is 54.6%, an increase of 5.6 percentage points month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of month-on-month growth and returning to the expansion range after 19 months. Changes in sub-indexes show that steel market demand continues to warm up, steel mills' production is accelerating, raw material prices have stopped falling and started to rise, and steel prices have surged before falling back. It is expected that in November, market demand will be steadily released, steel production will remain stable in the short term, and raw material prices will slightly decline, while steel prices will remain stable with a slight increase.

2. According to Mysteel, as of October 31, the production and factory stocks of rebar have shifted from increase to decrease, while social stocks have shifted from decrease to increase, with demand continuously declining for the second consecutive week. Among them, the social stocks of rebar were 2.8257 million tons, an increase of 38,300 tons compared to last week, an increase of 1.37%; rebar demand was 2.4068 million tons, a decrease of 28,200 tons compared to last week, a decrease of 1.16%.

Hot Agricultural Product News

1. The fourth quarter until February 2025 is usually a concentrated period for China to purchase US soybeans, but this year Chinese companies have not been active in purchasing US soybeans for shipments after December, mainly due to the uncertainty of the US election results and concerns about escalating trade frictions between China and the US affecting subsequent soybean imports. According to monitoring, by the end of October, Chinese companies had basically finished purchasing US soybeans for November shipment, approximately 6.1 million tons; 1.5 million tons for December shipment, and purchases for US soybeans for January-February 2025 have not basically begun.

2. According to Muxian Technology, the sugarcane yield in Guangxi for the 2024/2025 crushing season is optimistic, with this year's industrial yield expected to be around 4.593-4.693 tons, and the expected crushing volume is around 54.2-55.38 million tons, an increase of about 3.02-4.2 million tons compared to the 2023/24 crushing season. The sugar yield is likely to be between 12.3-13%, and if the weather cooperates, there is a possibility of approaching or exceeding the sugar yield levels of the 2019/2020 crushing season. The estimated sugar production for Guangxi in the 2024/2025 crushing season is between 6.67-7.2 million tons.

3. Data from Brazilian shipping agency Williams indicates that as of the week ending October 30, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 59, down from 68 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at the ports was 2.3218 million tons, down from 2.7037 million tons the previous week. Among the total amount of sugar waiting for export that week, the quantity of high-grade raw sugar (VHP) was 2.1886 million tons. According to the data released by Williams, the amount of sugar waiting for export at the Port of Santos was 1.5922 million tons, and at the Port of Paranaguá, it was 400,800 tons.

4. According to foreign media reports, due to drought and plant diseases leading to a decrease in production, Thailand's Ministry of Commerce has temporarily banned the export of crude palm oil. This restriction is expected to last until December, aiming to stabilize local prices and ensure sufficient inventory levels. Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan emphasized that the current market situation reflects a significant decline in oil palm production, necessitating measures to protect farmers and consumers from rising prices. The deputy director of the department under the Thai Ministry of Commerce, Goranij Nonejuie, confirmed that the currently satisfactory price is 8-9 Thai baht per kilogram, but he emphasized the need to closely monitor the price of bottled palm oil.

5. According to shipping survey agency ITS, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from October 1-31 was 1,624,210 tons, an increase of 11.4% compared to the same period last month, which was 1,457,408 tons.

6. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) released its monthly sugar market outlook report, expecting global sugar consumption to grow by 1.8% in the 2024/25 marketing year and by 1.7% in the 2025/26 marketing year, due to declining sugar prices and stable global economic growth. It is expected that global sugar production will remain flat in the 2024/2025 marketing year, and production in 2023/2024 is expected to grow by 2.6% to 185 million tons, the highest level in seven years.

7. The latest drought report from the USDA shows that as of the week ending October 29, about 73% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought, up from 68% the previous week and 38% the same time last year.

8. The USDA announced data indicating that private exporters reported sales of 150,000 tons of soybean meal to unknown destinations for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year.

9. According to the USDA, as of the week ending October 24, US net sales of soybeans for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 2.273 million tons, up from 2.152 million tons the previous week; net sales of soybeans for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week.

10. According to foreign media reports, before the USDA publishes its monthly soybean crushing report, surveyed analysts estimate that the report is expected to show that US soybean crushing in September may rebound to 5.623 million short tons, or 187.4 million bushels; as of September 30, 2024, US soybean oil stocks are expected to be 1.539 billion pounds.

11. The latest report from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange indicates that Argentina's soybean growing season for the 2024/25 marketing year has successfully started following recent rainfall, with significant rainfall in the central region. Currently, 3.3% of the planned 19 million hectares of soybean planting has been completed nationwide.

12. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of October 25, the number of unpriced cotton ON-call sell orders was 61,803 contracts, an increase of 2,940 contracts from the previous period; the number of unpriced buy orders was 83,160 contracts, a decrease of 1,156 contracts.

Energy and Chemical Hot News

1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the (Cement and Glass Industry Capacity Replacement Implementation Measures (2024 Edition)). It states that it is strictly prohibited to file for new capacity in cement clinker and flat glass projects. If there is a need for new construction or renovation, a capacity replacement plan must be formulated to implement equal or reduced capacity replacement.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of October 31, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6777 million tons, an increase of 27,400 tons week-on-week (an increase of 1.66%), and an increase of 14,700 tons compared to Monday, an increase of 0.88%. Among them, light soda ash was 724,600 tons, an increase of 9,700 tons week-on-week, and heavy soda ash was 953,100 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons week-on-week. This week, soda ash inventory reached a new high, a year-on-year increase of 226.97%, showing a continuous accumulation for nine weeks, but the accumulation speed has significantly slowed down.

3. According to Longzhong Information, there are many unstable external factors, and terminal procurement enthusiasm is poor. This week, PTA spot prices continued to weaken, but the raw material PX performed relatively strong, causing the processing interval to continue to weaken compared to the previous month. As of October 30, 2024, the average PTA processing interval in China was 337.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 4.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.70%.

4. According to the EIA natural gas report, as of the week ending October 25, the total natural gas inventory in the US was 38,630 billion cubic feet, an increase of 7.8 billion cubic feet from the previous week, and an increase of 107 billion cubic feet year-on-year, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, which is also 178 billion cubic feet higher than the 5-year average, an increase of 4.8%.

Hot Metal News

1. According to Mysteel, as of October 31, the total inventory of alumina nationwide was 3.846 million tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from the previous period. This week, the national alumina spot inventory continued to decrease slightly, with some regions recently seeing improved shipments, and the raw material inventory for electrolytic aluminum plants increased compared to last week. Alumina plants have recently begun maintenance, and downstream procurement is not smooth, so the spot inventory of alumina plants remains low. In addition, this week the futures price of alumina has significantly adjusted, with some delivery products concentrated on spot pricing.

2. The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that ×× Company (02688324) group (account group number: B0002528) on October 31, 2024, exceeded the limit for intraday trading volume on the gold futures (AU) 2502 contract for the first time, reaching the exchange's handling standards. Their trading behavior violates Article 16 of the (Shanghai Futures Exchange Abnormal Trading Behavior Management Measures), and the exchange has decided to impose regulatory measures limiting opening positions for 5 trading days on the relevant customers for the corresponding contract.

3. Citigroup believes that there is still room for gold prices to rise to $3000/ounce in the next six months. This is due to the continuous deterioration of the US job market and the increasing demand for gold ETFs to hedge against broader asset price downside risks.

Praise '期' Talk - Unveiling Trading Logic of Varieties!

1. Apple futures continue to rise, are there concerns about delivery and warehouse squeezing risks?

Everbright Futures Analysis pointed out that from the perspective of the basic situation of apples, the market has generally traded apples with abundant production this year, with opening prices lower than the same period last year; in addition, contracts for November and later contracts this year apply to new delivery benchmarks for apples, with market expectations of increased inventory putting pressure on futures prices. However, from the apple warehouse receipts forecast disclosed by the exchange in recent days, the inventory volume is relatively low, with only 690 apple delivery forecasts registered as of Wednesday, with a slightly higher ratio of virtual to actual, raising concerns about warehouse squeezing risks for apple deliveries, causing prices to start following delivery logic, leading to an expanded increase in near-month contracts. Looking ahead, short-term attention should still be paid to apple inventory volume, although the fruit hardness in the western production area is relatively low, and the Shandong production area has quality issues such as fruit rust and cracks, merchants are not strongly reluctant to sell and are active in selling. If the inventory volume increases with rising prices, concerns about warehouse squeezing will ease, and prices may still have the potential to decline.

2. With long and short factors interwoven, what will be the price trend of coking coal in the future?

Galaxy Futures Analysis pointed out that the recent market trading main line is unclear, market sentiment fluctuates, and trading logic switches back and forth between macro expectations and real fundamentals, leading to significant volatility. In terms of the spot market, after the first round of price cuts for coke, it has stabilized, while coking coal shows mixed fluctuations. Fundamentally, the supply and demand for both coking coal and coke have not qualitatively changed, and the supply of coking coal remains relatively loose. The current market expects further specific fiscal policies to be introduced, and even if fiscal policies are implemented, it is expected that the proportion directed towards traditional infrastructure and real estate will decline, making it unwise to be overly optimistic about the improvement in steel demand. Future focus should be on the introduction of subsequent policies and the actual increase in downstream steel demand.

Overview of Today's Important Futures Data and Events

1. On November 1 at 20:30, the US October seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population will be released. Previously, the US September seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population recorded an increase of 254,000, the largest increase since March 2024. If non-farm employment data increases again, it will boost market confidence in the US economy, thereby affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.

2. Pending November 1, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of October 31. Previously, on October 25, Mysteel reported that the total import iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 153.4168 million tons, an increase of 441,500 tons month-on-month, with an average daily unloading volume of 3.2334 million tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons month-on-month.

Article reprinted from: Jinshi Data