2024.10.31 Cryptocurrency Macro and News Analysis:

From on-chain data, stablecoins have been in a state of inflow from October 24 to 30, but have not broken through the previous highs of the past two months. The funds have all flowed into BTC, with no spillover effect to altcoins yet.

From October 28 to today, over 10,000 BTC have flowed out of exchanges.

It seems BTC is still set to rise, but how much of a pullback will it have?

The cost for whales and large capital from ETFs is $55,000, while the current price is $72,000, yielding a profit of 30%. Over the past 10 years, the average annual increase of the S&P 500 index has exceeded 12%. If the BTC price reaches $82,000, their profits will exceed 50%, which is equivalent to achieving a growth rate in BTC that is more than five times that of the stock market index in one year; it's estimated that they will begin to take profits.

So if it rises close to $82,000, BTC may experience a significant pullback. Currently, from on-chain data, BTC is still flowing out, so the risk is not high.

Regarding the U.S. elections, this year's presidential election may be the most closely contested in history. The two candidates are evenly matched, and in seven swing states, polls show their support is nearly equal, with all differences within the margin of error. It is still uncertain who will win.

Last night's small non-farm payroll data recorded 233,000, the largest increase since July 2023, a slight negative. Strong employment affects the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. Tonight at 8:30, the PCE will be released, and tomorrow night at 8:30, non-farm payroll data will be published.

If the non-farm payroll data over the next two days does not cause significant negative impact, BTC may build up strength and potentially break through $74,000.