Bitcoin continued to surge this morning, directly reaching around 71600. Looking at the data for Ethereum above confirms that this wave has indeed lagged behind the market significantly. Therefore, in the absence of a rebound, it's a good time to set up for the future. When the real surge happens, that's when the selling will begin, and the rebound could come at any time.
Bitcoin sets the trend, and the altcoins follow, which is a healthier trend. This is the current leeching market. If all we see are chaotic altcoins, it usually indicates the later stages of the market. Therefore, although the altcoins are in a following state right now, it's considered a normal phenomenon, giving us plenty of time to position ourselves in the altcoins we have confidence in!
Ethereum was initially forming a bear flag on the four-hour chart, but has now produced a surprise candlestick, breaking through the upper edge of the bear flag and also surpassing the previous resistance area of 2560. Therefore, if we get a pullback this afternoon, it would be a great entry opportunity. The theoretical strong resistance is around 2730, so in the larger upward trend, a pullback below 2600 is a good entry point! Long-term investors should ignore short-term fluctuations; there is potential for a year-end surge towards the previous high of 4800. After all, BNB has already broken its all-time high, Bitcoin is doing well, SOL should also reach new highs soon, and ETH has upcoming upgrades for speculation. The ETF hasn’t really taken effect yet, so buying spot right now also has a high cost-performance ratio!
With Bitcoin seeing net inflows from US stock ETFs, even with sell orders around 70K and 71K, the selling pressure is gradually being absorbed. Now we wait for a breakthrough of the previous high at 73777, above which is a vacuum zone with no resistance. Looking at the market trend's continuation signals, it took over three years to complete the cup and handle pattern from September 2021 to October 2024, coinciding with the US presidential election on 11/5 next week.
Bitcoin's market share hasn’t been mentioned for a while. This indicator has always looked at Bitcoin's dominance in the market. It is currently moving steadily in an upward channel, having touched the upper edge of the channel three times. However, it hasn't touched it since the third time, and I estimate it will challenge the fourth time (meaning Bitcoin may still rise). Additionally, referencing the highest percentage of BTC.D from previous years, it needs to reach around 70% before it starts to slowly decline, after which funds will shift to altcoins.
The market share of stablecoins relative to USD has always been correlated with Bitcoin. If USDT.D decreases, Bitcoin will rise. It has already broken a significant support level, which suggests a big move is coming.
The bull flag pattern has consolidated for 8 months and is about to break through. The bull market is just beginning. Currently, the market may be in a favorable situation due to the US presidential election. We can consider whether Trump might be elected, similar to the previous expectations of the BTC ETF passing, where the market reacted by surging to 70k before a false breakout and a subsequent drop. So if we assume a breakout above the historical high of 73777, will there be a sudden long wick down, followed by a pullback and then a rise? That’s also worth paying attention to.
Let's talk about the election. If Harris is elected, will there be a black swan event?
If Trump is elected, it will be favorable for crypto, as he has previously hinted at making Bitcoin a national reserve currency.
This is quite strong; it might change the nature of crypto!
Something that was seen as a scam for decades is suddenly being recognized as legitimate!
This is also the reason Buffett has been selling US stocks like crazy lately. If the capital gains tax is implemented, wealthy individuals will have to sell assets to raise cash for taxes.
Redistributing wealth will undoubtedly trigger a wave of selling!
However, in the current interest rate cut cycle, as long as rates do not quickly drop below 4%, the overall crypto market remains stable! Rest assured!
This expectation allows global assets to maintain a relatively easy profit-making phase!
However! If the Federal Reserve completes interest rate cuts and returns to the most favorable rate of 3%-4%, then we should prepare for a bear market!
So, we need to make good use of this wave of interest rate cut expectations!
Secure the gains from this round of the bull market!
For those feeling confused about the current market, here are a few suggestions!
It has been said that this wave of Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs, and it is still within the expected range. Continue to wait for the breakthrough at the new high.
Most VC altcoins will only heat up once Bitcoin breaks its all-time high, which will be reflected in the continuous surges of VC coins.
Before Bitcoin reaches a new high, altcoins will be tugged back and forth, continuing to be leached by Bitcoin, but there will still be localized hot market conditions.
Do not FOMO, and avoid crowded places.
Hold your chips well and wait for the final performance of the market.
(Currently planning to find some low market cap coins with news to set up for, bringing everyone back to profit. Currently, the market cannot be structured; a quick 30% gain can be taken before moving on to the next encryption layout announcement!!)
