Today's prediction by the Financial Times of London is simply top-notch: If Harris wins, the Federal Reserve will continue to cut rates twice by 25 basis points at the end of this year and then cut rates three more times in the first half of next year, bringing rates down to the 3.5%-3.75% range. Little do they know that compared to Harris, Trump is much more aggressive on the rate cut path, and it wouldn't be surprising to see another 50 basis points cut by the end of the year.
In the evening, the Bank of Canada announced the latest interest rate decision. After having cut rates three times by 25 basis points this year, it decided to accelerate the cut by 50 basis points, bringing the current Canadian federal rate to 3.75%. Following the first rate cut by the U.S., countries that previously could not withstand the pressure have increased their rate cuts, while regions that held out are beginning their unique easing journeys.
Therefore, regarding the waterproof trend that has already landed, there is really no need for excessive psychological worry over the short-term market decline. It can be said for certain that all current pullbacks are psychological deterrents set by the big players before new highs; the more cheap chips there are, the better. It all depends on who breaks through the defense first.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of 87.9 million dollars, while Ethereum spot ETF had a net inflow of 11.94 million dollars. After a previous large inflow, the Bitcoin spot ETF data has begun to slow down, consistent with the current market's high point pullback. However, from the cyclical data, the activity of off-market funds is still very high. Before there are changes in the macro environment, the brief linked adjustment of Bitcoin will continue to rise to new highs without suspense.
In recent days, as the market warms up, there has been a lot of brainstorming among us and the big shots in this bull market; my brain cells suddenly feel insufficient.
Since March this year, the risks in the secondary market are very clear: the unlimited unlocking of large VC tokens has dragged down many quality projects. Unlike the last bull market where projects started with valuations of just millions or tens of millions of dollars, this bull market sees many projects valued over a billion, and in a fully circulating state, there is basically no chance for all projects to explode simultaneously. Therefore, even if the altcoin season comes, it will be difficult for altcoins in the secondary market to experience the widespread surge seen in the last bull market.
The logic from Uncle San is that the altcoin season will definitely come, and it may even explode within a single quarter. Our strategy, especially for altcoins that were deeply trapped with over 50% losses, is to firmly sell after breaking even, even if they continue to rise after reaching the cost line. Every position that does not follow the trading order needs to bear sufficient costs.
Recent DEX projects have once again ignited the market, with AI meme concept coins seeing over a thousand times increase in less than half a month, and their market cap has now surpassed 700 million dollars, rivaling ORDI. As more DEX tokens break the 100 million dollar market cap before hitting CEX markets, it can be anticipated that this bull market will rapidly head towards decentralization. Opportunities and participation in this will be shared in a document tomorrow.
The market has been moving slowly recently, and there won't be any extreme movements before the elections. So if there is a pullback, don't hesitate to add positions and buy the dip; on-chain data tells me that this wave may be the last adjustment before new highs.
BTC: Bitcoin posted a four-hour pullback path a couple of days ago, with the first bottom around 66800 points. It has been adjusting around this support for 24 hours. From the indicators, the current divergence has not been fully resolved. If a deep washout is needed, the technical second support will go to the 63000-64000 point range. This range is worth looking forward to, but don't stare at it completely. Breaking through the 68000 point level means the end of the previous rebound trend, and now is the time to brew reversal sentiment. Overall, the trend is that the four-hour continues to consolidate in a range to digest the divergence, while the hourly level is bearish, and the larger daily trend is still led by bulls. So if there were divergence signals at high positions a few days ago, just wait for support to buy; continue to hold steady for the long term.
ETH: Ethereum is moving down with Bitcoin, the short-term support is at 2500 points. Currently, there are no signs of a reversal in the exchange rate, and Ethereum's independent market situation in the short term still needs observation.
Altcoins: During the day, a sudden delisting of UNFI led to a nearly 30% drop, and the trend has directly reversed. The trends of CFX and SEI do not have structural issues on the daily chart, just pay attention to the short-term pullback risks. Overall, the decline in altcoin trends is much larger than Bitcoin, and they are all near short-term support. Watch for short-term spikes.
The fear and greed index is at 71 today.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
