The market is up, but where is the altseason?

Q1-2: No start

Q3: Still waiting

Will Altcoins Wake Up in Q4?

Here's what the data says

● Total market capitalization

Overall market capitalization declined 8.6% in the third quarter, largely due to weak macroeconomic conditions.

➜ It seems that general uncertainty is keeping institutions and individual investors at a distance.

● Volume

Spot trading volume on major exchanges hit new lows, down 36.8% from the second quarter.

➜ It feels like everyone is holding their breath waiting for the next big move.

Derivatives are the focus of the action right now. As spot volumes have declined, derivatives have taken over, now accounting for 80.3% of total trading volume.

➜ This tells me that traders are hedging more, and not just betting on price direction.

● Domination you $BTC

Bitcoin dominance is up again, to 58.15%. I’ve been saying for a while that in times of uncertainty, people tend to revert to what they trust.

➜ And right now, it's BTC — still the king, after all this time

But what's really crazy is that BTC dominance is increasing despite declining volumes across the board.

➜ It's like people are coming back to Bitcoin not because of the hype, but because they need something solid.

● ETH Performance

ETH, on the other hand, has seen lower market share growth than BTC.

➜ Interesting dynamic here — Ethereum continues to drive innovation, but speculative money is moving more towards Bitcoin for security reasons right now

Honestly, I'm not surprised by ETH's slower market share growth.

With all the layer 2 solutions and alt-L1 competition, ETH has a tougher road ahead to gain attention

● Prediction markets

Here’s an interesting fact: Prediction markets have seen an increase in activity this quarter. This could be due to the growing uncertainty surrounding world events, but more and more people are betting on outcomes.

Makes sense, doesn't it? People look for benefits wherever they can find them.

● Total value locked

Finally, DeFi continues to struggle, particularly in terms of liquidity. TVL has fallen by 15.5%.

Even DeFi giants are being hit as people seek yield elsewhere or simply stay away.

This DeFi drop isn’t entirely negative, though: it’s part of a market cycle. The space is maturing, and with maturation comes recalibration.

We are seeing less hype and more long-term building. I expect DeFi to bounce back when the market finds its equilibrium.

If I had to sum it up, the third quarter was a reset.

Spot trading is down, derivatives are up, Bitcoin dominance is reaffirmed.

The market is maturing, but it is cautious: everyone is waiting for the next catalyst. We are in a kind of waiting phase, but that simply means that opportunities will arise when the trend reverses.

When we look at the chart for $BTC and $ETH, it is clear that Bitcoin has demonstrated strength throughout this cycle, while $ETH and other altcoins remain lackluster.

What could this imply?

I think weak hands are systematically eliminated from altcoins so that big players can acquire as many coins as possible at the lowest prices.

I don't think altcoins are being abandoned; I'm sure they are being accumulated by major players.