Maybe everyone feels that the market is difficult to figure out these days. Not to mention everyone’s specific operations, just the volatility is a bit confusing. Rapid rises and falls are everywhere, and every position holder is worried.

Let me first state the conclusion. I am firmly bearish. No matter how people criticize me, I will remain bearish unless there is an interest rate cut in November and unless the market can remain above 69,000 after the interest rate cut, I will not change my mind.

If you want to criticize, you can start now. The content that follows has basically nothing to do with you.

Now let’s talk about three key points about trend market:

The big triangle structure of the bull-bear cycle has reached the top, but the specific point has not reached the peak value of 69,000. Speculative top-catching is not possible (top-catching at 69,000, break 69,000 and go)

Big whales only make two or three trends a year, and have been shorting since 68,000 (if you want to scold me for saying this, back off, your little tricks can't reach this level)

Whether Grayscale or BlackRock, these institutions need to force the market to fluctuate within a range to facilitate shipment or accumulation. (For the principle of shipment and accumulation, please read Hunter's article. The principle has been explained many times.)

Combined with the above three points, the next action is to reasonably implement the situation——

From the three factors just mentioned by the hunter, we can conclude that the market will fluctuate in a high range, the fluctuation will accelerate, the range will never be broken, the technical indicators will be temporarily invalid, and the manual intervention will be obvious. Looking back at the market from Monday to now, whether it is consistent, whether it is a pull-up to sell, whether it is a high-level range fluctuation after the pull-up, whether it maintains a balance, and whether the long and short fluctuations are intensified.

So the subsequent market is to maintain this range of fluctuations, about 66000-68000. A range that is too large is not good. Retail investors cannot trade at high frequencies, and they cannot help the main institutions collect chips. The smaller the range compression, the more high-frequency transactions there are, and the faster the chip turnover rate becomes. Who will be the winner? It just speeds up the collection of chips.

What is the purpose of this wave of pulling up and selling? Of course, what is sold when the price is pulled to a high level are the bottom long orders. Don’t look at it from the perspective of retail investors, what are sold are the bottom contract long orders and spot.

After the shipment, the next step is to absorb chips. What chips are absorbed? Of course, short positions. Because if it is to absorb long chips, I have only heard of taking long orders at low positions, but have never seen long orders being absorbed at high positions.

The top of the triangle oscillation of the bull-bear cycle is 69,000. However, with the passage of time (the oscillation cycle formed by 7-15 days of delivery and accumulation), the top keeps moving down, and after 7-15 days, the top becomes around 68,000. Then the top will be repeatedly inserted, which puts extreme pressure on the market. This oscillation cycle also puts pressure on whales, because the longer the short position is held, the higher the funding rate cost. Even if it falls later, the profit will be lowered.

Conclusion: Wait, the gods are fighting. If you are shorting at 68,000, you have two options. If you can't bear the pressure of repeated fluctuations in this range, you can run when it falls to around 66,500. It doesn't matter if you are more or less. If you can bear this kind of pressure atmosphere, you can treat it as a top-catching business, all the way to 53,000-50,000. When the chips are collected, the waterfall is coming in an instant. Maybe you want to ask the hunter, what if you are wrong, if I am wrong, I will lose money. If you don't believe it, you just can't bear this kind of atmosphere pressure, just treat it as a short-term business, and I have also given a sure-win stop position. Don't ask me if I will leave or not. I only say one thing, I can die, but I will die on the short side. Only after the interest rate cut in November, the market can stand above 69,000 and break through 73,800 again, I will admit my mistake and change my direction and thinking.