Readers who have read my previous long article (Endgame Thinking: Rate Cut Election and Bitcoin's Tomorrow) should remember that I came to the conclusion very early: the extreme right forces represented by Trump will surely rise, and Bitcoin will eventually hit a record high. At that time, Trump's polls were still behind Harris, and Musk did not publicly support Trump.
I have always been against and disgusted with predicting short-term market prices - this is usually the behavior of scammers or charlatans. As a long-term holder, my crypto investment philosophy is very simple: buy, store and hold. No need to pay attention to short-term fluctuations and market noise. If you can reach this level, I believe that 90% of the "scythes" in the market cannot cut you. In the previous article and the previous series of articles, I made the final prediction on the issue that readers care about most - the price of Bitcoin. Regardless of the model used and which party is in power, Bitcoin will eventually become a universal equivalent without borders, and its price will rise with the strengthening of the consensus base.
As of today, with more than 20 days to go before the US election, we can clearly see where things are going. Trump's approval rating in Polymarket has soared to 60% of his chances of winning, and even in traditional left-wing media polls that the Democratic Party may manipulate, Harris's approval rating is lower than Trump's. It can be said that the overall situation has basically been determined, and the reason is actually very simple.
Trump has Musk's full support, especially after he promised to join the cabinet and be responsible for improving the efficiency of the US government. Musk has staked his entire fortune and reputation - we have to admire the vision and courage of the world's richest man. With the influence of the X platform and Musk's 200 million personal fans, including direct support at the assassination scene in Pennsylvania, and Facebook's promise not to intervene in the election, the situation of traditional media being controlled by the left has basically been reversed. Coupled with Trump's personal Truth Social platform that locks in deep red fans, and Trump's team's superb means of operating new media for many years (such as the advantages on platforms such as TikTok), this time in the entire propaganda media field, the left can be said to have lost miserably, leaving only traditional TV media such as ABC. As the saying goes, "With a pen in hand, you can conquer the world without worry."
Obama and Biden's attempt to cut off the Democratic Party has failed miserably. The practice of bypassing the party's primary election to launch Kamala Harris is not only notorious, but also fully exposes the insidiousness of the white left. The bigwigs in the party are unwilling to stand up for their own political future, so they can only launch an unqualified candidate. Kamala Harris showed her true colors just after the honeymoon period, and performed poorly in the left-wing media many times. Even under the questioning of friendly media, she was unable to explain the difference between her and Biden's policies, and bluntly said that her mind was blank - this is beyond the scope of stupidity. I followed her X account, and she almost posted content attacking Trump personally like a madman. To be honest, as a middle-class voter, I would feel that she seems to have no substantive content except venting her emotions. In contrast, Trump can easily pick up economic data in various conversations and discuss complex issues in depth. Despite his advanced age, his mind is still sharp.
The mishandling of the disaster in Florida exposed Kamala Harris's dereliction of duty as vice president. When the local area suffered a natural disaster, she did not rush to the disaster area to inspect it immediately, but continued to canvass votes in the so-called swing states, obviously not caring about the people. On the contrary, Trump took the initiative to open his estate to disaster victims for free, highlighting the hypocritical nature of the white left. Biden was dissatisfied with being cut off (his son was still under investigation, but he was betrayed), and took advantage of the issue to deliberately not cooperate with Kamala Harris and reduce support for the disaster area, which instead aroused people's disgust with the Democratic Party. After this disaster, the election situation clearly developed in a direction that was favorable to Trump.
Of course there are other factors, such as real inflation and immigration, etc. In general, the left's ability to govern is often disappointing.
I believe that in the next twenty days, as I analyzed before, various "black swan" events will follow one after another and reach a climax on the election day. This period will surely go down in history. The trading advice I gave before is still valid: pay attention to spot and add positions on dips. In the previous article, I also predicted the reversal of the Fed's policy-no matter how Powell whitewashes the peace, the decline of the empire is obvious. Here, I reiterate my final prediction: Trump will win the election by a large margin and be elected president (unless something unexpected happens again), and Bitcoin will enter an explosive growth mode next year. Why is this so?
Those who pay attention to finance should have clearly felt that the world is undercurrent. A financial world war about liquidity is unfolding, and Powell's first interest rate cut statement is the starting gun for this battle. Whether it is the sharp fluctuations in the Chinese stock market, the changes in the Japanese yen exchange rate, or the reactions and subsequent actions of the central banks of major economies, they all show the thirst for liquidity in this difficult period.
We can see that just when China just followed up with a large-scale stimulus, the Fed suddenly made a sharp turn and said it might stop cutting interest rates and even consider raising them. This is obviously not a simple fine-tuning based on domestic economic data, but a determination to stop the outflow of liquidity at the cost of its century-old reputation. As I said before, Powell is now in a dilemma: if he does not cut interest rates, the interest on the national debt alone will be astronomical; if he cuts interest rates, the American people will face inflation, and more seriously, it may cause a sharp drop in US stocks and a depreciation of the US dollar. Due to his close relationship with the Democratic Party, when the election situation is unfavorable, he has to moderately release money to stimulate the stock market, which is a disguised way of "buying votes". But he cannot make interest rate cuts a trend, but emphasizes that every decision must be based on (possibly modified) data - this is also a backhand for the election. This is why Trump recently criticized Powell for cutting interest rates too much.
This battle for liquidity is related to the fate of the empire and the lives of many people, and the key node is the election day. Although no matter who becomes the president of the United States, it will not change the attitude towards Chinese leeks, and from the final perspective, it will not affect the fate of Bitcoin. The only difference is the length of time.
If Kamala Harris reverses the defeat through improper means like Biden did last time, then we are indeed not far from S3. The establishment’s thinking is simple: the dollar cannot depreciate, it must become the world currency, and whoever challenges the dollar will be physically eliminated. Streamlining the military and government will not work, because the military-industrial complex and establishment politicians need huge war expenditures and need to constantly provoke friction internationally. Therefore, printing money on one hand and fighting war on the other hand has become a must.
For the crypto market, it may be driven into the US dollar market in the short term. According to the thinking of the establishment, there is a high probability that a policy similar to the 20% crypto capital income tax will be introduced. In short, they cannot accept things that are not controlled. This may cause Bitcoin to enter a technical bear market in the short term. However, as I said before, the wealth model based on the printing press will eventually be unsustainable. The charm of decentralization is that it cannot be killed forever. Based on the basic supply and demand relationship, Bitcoin will still become a real store of value - and once this happens, it will be a great time for you to increase your position!
If Trump is successfully elected, it will bring new shocks to the financial system of the United States and even the world. He has made it clear that he is the "crypto president", and Vance in his team is also a senior crypto investor, not to mention Musk. The recently released Trump crypto platform further reveals his underlying ambition - to subvert the Wall Street model through crypto finance. Perhaps from now on, the Trump family will have a place in the "new money" family of the world's financial tycoons.
Although the Trump administration has not yet taken office, it is not difficult to see his governing ideas by combining the policies released by his last term and the current team. Externally, he may withdraw from international affairs and increase tariffs, including withdrawing from the Russia-Ukraine war and even withdrawing from NATO. Domestically, Trump may learn from the lessons of his last term - 19% inflation directly ruined his re-election. He may listen to Musk's advice and significantly "slim down" the US government through DOGE (an institution aimed at promoting government streamlining). This is very similar to what the Argentine president is doing: reducing government spending and reducing the need to live on debt. Small government, strong dollar, low inflation - this is a beautiful vision.
Regarding Trump's crypto-friendly declaration, we should also adopt the attitude of "listen to what he says and watch what he does". If it follows this route, the US government may significantly reduce the demand for printing money, thereby locking liquidity in the US dollar. This is not particularly good news for Bitcoin. Of course, I am more inclined to believe that they will continue to print money for short-term political achievements. After all, it is not enough to rely on Musk alone to do all this. At least the Federal Reserve must listen to Trump.
In spot operations, if there is a large correction before the election, you can add positions in batches, and pay close attention to the Trump Index, the trend of US stocks such as DTJ, and bets on ploymarket - after all, betting with real money is much more reliable than street polls. In the general election next month, when Trump wins the election, this liquidity battle will reach a climax. At this high point, if you are not a long-term hold, you can take profits at this time and wait and see what the Trump administration does: one is crypto-friendly, especially the policy of Bitcoin strategic storage proposed by it, and the other is about the operation of DOGE, including personnel changes at the Federal Reserve - if it cannot be effectively implemented, then printing money will be the only choice, and if the streamlining of the administration is successful and Powell is replaced, then we may face a relatively long period of liquidity scarcity in the crypto market, and we must be prepared to be long-term holders until the moment when the afterglow of the empire finally extinguishes.
This battle for liquidity is very much like the Dark Forest in Liu Cixin's The Three-Body Problem. Various economies are watching each other cautiously, fearing that if they release water too early, the liquidity will be sucked away by others. Bitcoin is more like a river running through this forest. I also firmly believe that the model of establishment governments is almost certainly coming to an end. As AI, brain-computer interaction, and interstellar colonization move from science fiction to reality, a new paradigm is quietly being established. When you look back at that time, you will deeply understand the power of decentralization and the value of Bitcoin, and you will also remember this epic election!
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