After the non-farm payrolls, CME's "Fed Watch" showed that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 89.4%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points was 10.6%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points by December was 74.5%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points was 23.7%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points was 1.8%. Before the release of the non-farm payrolls, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by November was 71.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points was 28.5%. The probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points by December is 45.8%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points is 44.0%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 100 basis points is 10.2%.

As I said, a rate cut in September is not necessarily due to poor data, and no rate cut in November is not necessarily due to good data. The November interest rate meeting is just after the election day. Powell's actions are completely playing with political fire.