In the international market, crude oil prices have fallen continuously, and Chinese concept stocks plummeted last night, both of which are due to Trump's transactions. The decline in crude oil is very reasonable. One of Trump's core economic strategies is to increase US crude oil production and suppress energy prices to reduce inflation; but I estimate that if Trump targets China again, he will not swing the knife to the already depressed Chinese concept stocks, but will target China's advantageous industries and cutting-edge strategic fields.
Trump said that if he is elected president, he will impose a 10% tariff on all goods sold to the United States and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods (but most of them are negotiable). If Trump is elected, companies with a high proportion of exports to the United States may be greatly impacted, and Trump may target China's AI industry, which is the most competitive frontier industry between China and the United States. China's AI industry is the only one in the world that can barely keep up with the United States.
What recently led to a sharp reversal in the election situation between Harris and Trump was the Biden-Harris administration's poor response to hurricanes in North Carolina and Florida, which greatly disappointed the American people.
At that time, Trump was at a disadvantage in the presidential election TV debate, but this debate could not completely determine the election, and Trump still had plenty of time to turn the tables.
Over the past month, I have often watched the campaign videos of the two. The 78-year-old Trump's speeches lasted about an hour and a half each time, while the 60-year-old Harris' speeches lasted only 25 minutes each time. Harris is basically a silly woman. She cannot express her policies clearly. She avoids many questions in interviews. Her replies are empty and her slogans are empty and false. She has too many frivolous expressions. In the interview on the Oprah show, there were many famous scenes of her speech being stuck, incoherent, and unclear. She does not look like a monarch. You may still be more concerned about what impact the election of the two sides will have on us?
(1) Harris will basically continue Biden’s path, smiling on the surface but stabbing Biden in the back in secret.
1. Continue to extend Trump’s tariffs, and in some areas, further increase tariffs on top of Trump’s;
2. Restrict the export of advanced chips to China, and join Japan, South Korea and Europe in restricting the export of chip manufacturing equipment to China;
3. Win over allies such as Europe, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia to “de-risk the economy” with China;
4. There will be large-scale conflicts similar to those between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East, forcing China to take sides and fall into the trap of losing no matter which side it chooses;
5. Carbon emissions put excessive pressure on China;
6. Strongly support Taiwan and the Philippines, worsening China’s geopolitical environment;
7. Using human rights issues to smear China;
8. On the positive side, maintain superficial harmony, do not tear each other apart, and maintain decency.
(2) Trump
1. The core is to increase tariffs, cancel China's preferential treatment, and declare a 60% tariff on China, but most of it can be negotiated;
2. The automotive industry must build factories in the United States, otherwise a 100% to 200% tariff will be imposed;
3. The two sides may tear each other apart, especially atypical politicians who can be completely shameless to achieve their goals, which is not conducive to maintaining harmony and decency;
4. On the positive side, Trump will impose tariffs on allies, demand Taiwan pay protection fees (especially chip companies), will not support the Philippines in the South China Sea, and abandon Biden's strategy of luring allies to attack China; declare withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement, announce an end to the war, lower interest rates to promote the economy, increase energy production to suppress inflation; there was no chip export ban on China during the Trump era.
Trump has been clamoring these days that South Korea should pay the United States $10 billion in military expenses every year!
He mentioned many times in his campaign speeches that other NATO countries should pay hundreds of billions of dollars in military expenses to the United States. The naked act of asking for money from allies will push American friends to our side.
In short, America comes first, making money comes first, and not messing around.
Simply put, Trump only wants money and wants to do business fairly; Biden and Harris not only want money, but also want our lives. They will unite all allies and do everything they can to completely lock down China’s strategic space and completely stifle China’s development.
