Bitcoin experienced a double explosion of long and short positions last night (15), with a sharp drop and a sharp rise. First, it soared to nearly $68,000, and then fell below $65,000. Fortunately, it stopped falling and recovered soon after, returning to above $67,000. The shocking highs and lows overnight triggered a large amount of liquidation of leveraged positions, and the futures contract market had a liquidation of more than $300 million.

This round of ups and downs triggered a large amount of liquidation of leveraged positions. The total liquidation volume (liquidation amount) of cryptocurrency market futures contracts in the past 24 hours reached US$302 million, of which about US$180 million came from long positions, while short positions lost US$122 million.

Despite last night’s unsettling moves, Bitcoin is still up 8% over the past week, and the recent surge in popularity of crypto-friendly Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is likely to be the reason for the rally.

At this time, almost all of Tesla's Bitcoin holdings were transferred after two years of silence.

Around 21:30 UTC on October 15, an address associated with Tesla transferred approximately $765 million worth of BTC (11,509 coins) in batches to multiple unknown wallets, which appears to be the company's entire remaining Bitcoin reserves.

In the first quarter of 2021, after Bitcoin rose to a high of nearly $62,000, Tesla sold $272 million worth of Bitcoin for a profit of $128 million. The company also sold $936 million worth of Bitcoin in the second quarter of 2022, bringing in $64 million in gains.

The purpose of the latest transfers is unclear, with some analysts believing Tesla may simply be making strategic adjustments, while others believe the transfers could signal potential sales or the reintroduction of Bitcoin as a payment method for its electric vehicles.

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated upward, soaring to a high of $67,960, the highest since July 29. It then quickly fell to $64,787. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,000, and the next key resistance level was $68,000.

Bitcoin open interest at record levels, driven by institutional investors

Data shows that Bitcoin's open interest is at a record level, and Polymarket's market sentiment believes that Bitcoin has a 64% chance of hitting a new high in 2024, an increase of 9% from last week. This is mainly driven by institutional investors, and the open interest weighted funding rate is currently at a multi-month high, reflecting a bullish outlook in the short to medium term.

In addition, spot Bitcoin ETFs received a total of US$810 million in inflows in two trading days, with Fidelity and ARK receiving larger inflows. At the same time, Ethereum ETH attracted US$17 million in inflows yesterday, mainly contributed by BlackRock's products.

As geopolitical tensions rise and the upcoming U.S. election dominates the headlines, speculative institutional investors such as hedge funds may view gold and Bitcoin as beneficiaries of this trend.

With surveys showing a Trump victory increasingly likely, the devaluation trade could strengthen further as tariffs and expansionary fiscal policy (also known as debt devaluation) related to geopolitical tensions could further weaken the dollar.

Other positives include traditional wealth advisors such as Morgan Stanley being allowed to recommend spot Bitcoin ETFs to clients, MtGox and Genesis creditors halting large-scale liquidations of Bitcoin, and the upcoming cash payout from FTX’s bankruptcy, which could be reinvested into the market.

The market capitalization of stablecoins is approaching its previous peak of around $180 billion (the level before the Terra/Luna crash in 2022). Stablecoin legislation in the United States is likely to appear sometime in 2025, and it is expected that once it is finally implemented, adoption will increase, making stablecoins more mainstream.

The price of Bitcoin "has broken out of a parallel channel (flag pattern, blue line below)".

So while it’s not time to go all out yet, this breakout could signal the next leg up to retest highs of $73,000, be patient and wait for a close to confirm as we have to hold above $65,000 but from a technical perspective, the trend for BTC looks positive.

The current market situation does not talk about technology, support, fundamentals or applications, and is completely driven by news. It is difficult to operate in the short term, so wait and see, and then take action when the opportunity arises.