Although memes are still very popular and the search volume has even exceeded that of Bitcoin, to be honest, I don’t think the meme season will last too long. At least the market value of the meme sector will not be as high as Murad has inflated. After the show ends, the overall copycat market may usher in a bear market comparable to the collapse after the ICO wave in 2017.

This round of bull market obviously does not have enough narrative to attract external funds. Since the development of smart contracts by Ethereum in 2015, decentralized computing platforms and applications have given enough room for imagination. However, the industry has been developing for nearly 10 years. We have dozens of public chains and Layer 2, as well as countless infrastructure, but the number of DAPPs with more than 100,000 DAU can be counted on one hand, and most of them are speculative and trading applications. In the end, everyone did not choose to seriously think about what problems occurred in the industry, but started buying memes after Murad’s call for Token 2049, just because the chips are more "fair" and because memes have no concept of P/E ratio, so there is no ceiling for valuation. Anyway, everyone is not acting anymore. I’m here to make money. Who cares about decentralization or web3?

Meme has its value from the perspective of cultural communication and identity recognition, but when the entire industry participants are talking about memes, and when the first-tier firms list low-market value, high-risk meme tokens for traffic, it means that the industry has fundamentally failed. There have been some problems, and it hasn’t collapsed yet, so everyone can turn a blind eye and pretend it’s nothing. In fact, every participant is thinking about when they can quietly appear in the crowded party. In the last round, Musk also called for Doge, and this round of meme tokens is the currency circle itself competing with each other. Since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and FTX, supervision has become more stringent, making it more difficult to deposit crypto funds over the counter, and the BTC ETF is new There is a big gap between the properties of incoming funds and memes, and the spillover effect of funds is limited. If no new blood comes in to take over, the duration of this meme market will only be shorter than everyone thinks.

Nowadays, memes can be posted on any topic. Communities dig up the names of celebrities' dogs and cats. A concept can be posted on 3-4 chains at the same time. There are also various capitalization disputes. Countless new projects die every day. Is this different from the ICO in 2017 when all concepts had to be used to launch blockchain coins? ICOs at least pretend to publish white papers, find partners, and build a great team. Now devs can issue coins with one click, create a Twitter account and a Telegram group to go to CX. At this rate, retail investors' capital will only be lost faster. A lot of meme liquidity pools with a market value of hundreds of millions are only a few million. I really don't know what the collapse will look like.

After this round of bull market, when the bear market comes, the valuation of cottage industry will most likely usher in a more brutal reshuffle than the bear market in 2022, especially for meme. In the late stage of the bull market, those with the most pattern will die the most miserably, so it is extremely important to exit in time in this round of market.

BTC will be more optimistic, but we should not be too optimistic. If BTC is an AMM pool, the emergence of spot ETFs is equivalent to increasing the liquidity of this pool a lot, and the resistance to pulling up and smashing down will increase. In addition, option ETFs will also be listed later, and the overall unilateral market momentum will definitely decline (those who choose to sell are big brothers with goods, so I won’t expand on this aspect). If Trump is elected next, there will be a direct explosion, and it will not be the same as the rise at the beginning of the year. In the absence of special catalysts, breaking 100,000 is already very good, but similarly, if there is a bear market next, BTC should not be as miserable as the violent interest rate hike in 2022. There is currently no fund like LUNA with tens of billions of dollars that may collapse at any time, and the decline may be milder than in previous bear markets (provided that there is no external black swan).

The warehouse is always full and the eyes are always filled with tears.