The pace of monetary easing in this bull market is significantly slower. It is expected that the Fed will gradually cut interest rates by 200 basis points in the next six months, rather than quickly lowering them to an extremely low point as in 2020. This gradual easing policy makes this bull market more like the one in 2017, and the market will experience a more sustained rise rather than a rapid surge in the short term. From March to September this year, the Bitcoin market performed relatively flat, mainly because the Fed has not yet actually taken interest rate cuts and the market lacks new capital injections, causing Bitcoin prices to continue to consolidate during this period.

From a long-term perspective, BTC's subsequent market still faces the risk of a final decline, which may be an important buying opportunity. From now until the second half of 2025, BTC may enter a slowly growing bull market rhythm, with large market fluctuations, but the overall trend is upward. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. BTC market share and market cycle: BTC's market share has been growing for two consecutive years. As the Fed shifts from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), the market share may peak, and is usually accompanied by a long period of weekly decline. This means that BTC may be under pressure in the short term, but this also leaves room for a strong rebound in the future.

2. Impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle: Historically, the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle is often accompanied by sharp fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, especially before the second and third interest rate cuts, when stock market crashes are more common. As a high-risk asset, BTC is not expected to be completely immune to this impact. Although interest rate cuts may inject more liquidity into the economy, market sentiment is usually more cautious in the early stages of the interest rate cut cycle, which may put BTC under pressure in the short term.

3. The relationship between liquidity and QE: The real factor driving the massive bull market in the cryptocurrency market will be the actual implementation of quantitative easing and the subsequent market reaction. Only after the liquidity brought by QE really flows into the market, the crypto market is expected to usher in a massive rise. Therefore, the second half of 2025 may be the time for BTC to enter a violent bull market and enjoy bubble-like growth. Before that, investors should pay attention to the rhythm of liquidity injection and remain patient.

4. Technical aspects and cyclical fluctuations: From a technical perspective, BTC has completed the three-wave trend at the weekly level and is currently in a rebound phase. This may mean that the market still has room to set new highs, but even so, before BTC breaks through 100,000, it will face the risk of top divergence or weekly rebound not setting new highs, which will trigger a long-term sharp correction. Therefore, before the market continues to rise, investors need to pay close attention to key resistance levels and changes in market sentiment.

Potential altcoins worth watching

1.PEOPLE

PEOPLE coin may be the only election hot coin on mainstream exchanges that has not been fully hyped. The election on November 5 is getting closer, but the market hype about it has not yet started. According to current data, Trump has won 5 of the 7 swing states. Based on past experience, this means that the overall situation has been basically determined. Trump has publicly stated that he wants to make "the people" great again, and this promise also gives the RMB a certain symbolic meaning.

At present, judging from the PEOPLE market, it seems that only a strong "big positive line" is needed to establish the start of the trend. Everything is ready, just waiting for this decisive upward breakthrough. I believe that this critical moment will come soon.

2. CHZ

Chiliz (CHZ) is the leading digital currency in the sports and entertainment sector, exclusively powering the blockchain-based platform Socios. Socios allows users to participate in the management of their favorite sports teams and brands through voting and decision-making functions, thus bridging the gap between fans and clubs.

Recently, CHZ has seen a sharp rise of about 20% in price, mainly due to strong technical analysis indicators and the announcement of an upcoming airdrop. Currently, CHZ is priced at $0.07439, up 7.74% in 24 hours and 17.40% in a week.

A key factor driving this price increase was the news of the expected $PEPPER token airdrop, which sparked strong interest from the Chiliz community. In order to be eligible to participate in the airdrop, users need to meet specific staking requirements, which has stimulated demand for CHZ. With more users meeting these conditions and holding CHZ, this development is considered to be one of the main drivers of the recent price increase.

In addition to the airdrop expectations, CHZ's market performance also shows that it is in a relatively stable state. In the past 30 trading days, there have been 19 trading days with an upward trend, which means that the success rate of the token during this period is about 63%. In addition, compared with its market value, CHZ shows high liquidity, indicating that buying and selling transactions are relatively easy. At the same time, its 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 44.01, which is in the neutral range, suggesting that the price may continue to consolidate at the current level in the short term.

Overall, Chiliz benefits from its unique positioning in the sports and entertainment sectors. Combined with recent airdrop expectations and market performance, CHZ's future short-term performance remains a hot topic.

3.WIF

As the cryptocurrency market matures and competition becomes increasingly fierce, whether the price of WIF (Weed Inu Finance) can soar and break through the $10 mark like SHIB (Shiba Inu) in 2021 has become the focus of investors' attention.

WIF, based on the Solana blockchain, is an emerging memecoin that has gradually attracted investor interest due to its strong upward momentum and whale activity. This community-driven token features a Shiba Inu wearing a pink knitted hat as its logo, fully reflecting the fun and appeal of memecoin. Although WIF is still in the early stages of development, market analysts believe that the token has the potential to achieve rapid growth in the future, and may even repeat the brilliant performance of SHIB in 2021 and move towards the target of $10.

As the market continues to buy WIF, investor confidence is growing. In the short term, WIF may target the price range of $4 and $4.8, and then strive for higher targets. This upside potential depends not only on the market performance of WIF itself, but also on the sentiment and trend of the entire crypto market.

Despite the fierce market competition and potential risks, if WIF can maintain strong community support and market activity, the possibility of its price breaking through historical highs and achieving a substantial increase cannot be underestimated. In the days to come, investors will pay close attention to the movements of WIF to determine whether it can replicate the success of SHIB and become a new market star.