Daily Share

Last night, Bitcoin finally fell below 59800, reaching a low of 58946. The overall 4h-level decline structure is relatively complete, and it has rebounded above 61000. Therefore, it is more inclined to rebound at the 4h level. If it can come out smoothly, it should be able to rush above 66500. Short-term retracement is mainly long. We have already reminded you yesterday that the end of the 4h-level decline can end at any time, and it is not suitable to short at a low level.
 

BTC mid- to long-term

Weekly:

At the weekly level, it is still uncertain whether a new weekly level rise starting from 49000 is currently in progress. It is foreseeable that the weekly level correction of Bitcoin starting from 73777 is about to end or has already ended.

Next two situations:

The first scenario: Bitcoin breaks through 70,000 in the short term, and directly starts a new round of weekly rise, with a minimum time period of 6 months, starting from 49,000 on August 5. Pushing back 6 months, the peak will not be reached until at least February 2025. The worst target is around 90,000, and there is a normal chance to reach 110,000. As for higher, it is not clear for the time being.

The second scenario: Bitcoin cannot break through 70,000 in the short term, and it will have to go through another daily decline. The next daily decline can break 49,000 or not break but get close to it. It is expected that by the end of November or December, the weekly correction starting from 73,777 will be truly ended. Then a new weekly rise will begin, and the peak will not be reached until at least May 2025. The rising target is the same as the first target.
 

Daily Line:

At the daily level, there is currently a daily level rebound starting from 49,000. This rebound should not be over yet, and it is expected that there will be another 4h level rebound. After the daily rebound structure is almost the same, we need to pay attention to whether this daily rise can break through the 70,000 mark. If it breaks through, we can directly see a new weekly level rise, as shown by the blue arrow in the above figure. And the first daily rise target of the new weekly rise is around 80,000. This is the first situation mentioned at the weekly level.

If this daily level rebound fails to break through 70,000, then there is a high probability that another daily level correction will be needed, with the target being around 49,000 or 50,000. After the daily level correction is completed, there will be a real weekly level rise, as shown by the green arrow in the figure above, which is the second situation mentioned in the weekly level.
 

4H：

At the 4h level, there is hope for a new 4h level rebound, which is also the fifth 4h level rebound in the daily level rebound, that is, the rebound indicated by the blue arrow in the above figure. This 4h level rise is expected to run until after October 20, and the expected target is 66500~70000. As for whether it can break through 70,000, it depends on whether the subsequent market is strong.

BTC short term

Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.

1H：

At the 1h level, the current 4h level callback should be normal, the structure is complete, and there is a divergence, so it is expected that it should be in the 4h level rebound. And now it should be the first 1h level rebound in the 4h level rebound. This rebound depends on whether it breaks through 64500. There will be a second 1h level callback and a third 1h level rebound.

Of course, from a rigorous point of view, it is not 100% certain that this is definitely a 4h level rebound, but at least we tend to think that the probability is higher. If the first 1h level rebound can break through 63500, then we can almost confirm that it is a 4h level rebound. Otherwise, we need to prevent the possibility of building a central axis and extending it.

15M：

At the 15-minute level, the first 15-minute level of the 1h level rebound is currently running. Normally, there should be a second 15-minute level pullback here, but the estimated range of the pullback may not be large. Pay attention to around 60,000-60,500 below, and then see whether the third 15-minute level rebound can go above 63,000.
 

ETH

At the 4h level of Ethereum, although it has not fallen below 1310 again, it is relatively close at present, so it can be considered that the 4h level correction has ended. And the third 1h decline divergence has generated a second buy. So there is hope for a new 4h level rebound.

Since the previous 4h-level rebound did not break through 2800, the overall daily-level rebound structure of Ethereum has not been completed. The daily-level rebound of Ethereum still needs a 4h-level rebound to break through 2830. If the current new 4h-level rebound successfully comes out, it is expected to touch around 2900.

However, if Ethereum still cannot break through the 3,000 mark, then it will have to make a daily correction and fall again to test the support of 2030, which is synchronized with Bitcoin's daily decline if it fails to break through 70,000.

At the 15-minute level, it is currently the first 15-minute level rebound in the first 1h level rebound. In the short term, it should go through the second 15-minute level correction. Pay attention to the area around 2370 below, and there will be a third 15-minute level rebound later. The overall 1h level rise focuses on whether it can break through 2521. If it breaks through, we can confirm that this is the 4h level rebound. If there is no breakthrough, then we need to prevent the possibility of the 4h level decline extending again.

Trend Direction

Weekly level: The direction is downward. Theoretically, it is almost around 49,000. Whether it is over or not still needs to be observed, but the probability of a weekly rebound is increasing.

Daily level: The direction is upward, and the range of 67000~70000 should be continued in the short term

4-hour level: The direction is upward. It is expected to start a 4h level rebound, with a target of 66500~70000, but it needs to break through 63500 to get confirmation.

1-hour level: The direction is upward. Currently, there is a 1h-level rebound. Pay attention to the strength of the rebound.

15-minute level: The direction is upward. After a short-term 15-minute level correction, there will be a 15-minute level rebound.