After last week's non-farm data, the strong labor market performance suppressed the possibility of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The US September CPI inflation data was released last night, which almost exceeded market expectations. The overall CPI rose by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, higher than market expectations. The cryptocurrency market fell, and the market generally believed that the Federal Reserve may have to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts.

BTC From the short-term trend of Bitcoin in the 4 hours, we have fallen below the MA200 moving average, and it looks like this line is becoming a resistance level. Bitcoin also briefly fell below $59,000, and the long positions below were further liquidated. Currently, the daily RSI is below the neutral level of 50, further confirming the dominance of sellers

If Bitcoin cannot rebound effectively soon, I think the market's patience may be exhausted, leading to further amplification of short-term selling pressure. For more than 7 months, Bitcoin has been showing a volatile downward trend. It had the potential to hit a higher high before, but unfortunately it was rejected there in the end.

Looking back at the cycle, Bitcoin has fallen back to 60,000 US dollars 4 times. Were they all “luring shorts”?

Bitcoin's daily chart has fallen back to $60,000 for the fourth time, and there is currently no clear sign of a stop in the decline from the bears.

Although it looks dangerous, take a closer look: the bears are not as strong as the previous three times.

On the contrary, the three rises by the bulls all broke the previous high point, which is enough to show that after the market plummeted on August 5, the bulls began to gradually recover.

Currently, Bitcoin is undoubtedly still fluctuating here. Although the price has not broken the previous high, the low point has fallen below 50,000 US dollars, but it quickly recovered.

On the whole, although the trend of Bitcoin gives him a very dangerous feeling, considering the overall trend, BTC is still in a bull market.

It's just that this year's Ox is walking in a very bumpy way; it looks back every three steps, making it difficult for people to build confidence.

This year's copycat trading is the most difficult one to play. It is basically a wave of market conditions that has reached its peak. If you are a little greedy, the previous profits have been largely lost.

But fortunately, there are two pieces of news that are beneficial to the market.

mpGox also postponed their repayment plan, and finally there are 44,900 bitcoins left, which are expected to be repaid in October 2025. From a cyclical perspective, the bull market is almost over at that time, so many people commented that mpGox is helping their customers maximize their profits.
 

The US presidential election is scheduled for November 5th, maybe we will see some positive developments

In addition, there are some signs from the current copycat cycle that the on-chain meme craze will cool down for a while, and the market hot money will slowly flow into the value coins

Look at a set of data

According to Coingecko, the entire memecoin market is worth $53 billion, or about 2.3% of the entire $2.3 trillion cryptocurrency market cap. Pump.fun was launched in January 2024, and about 2.3 million memecoins have been created since then.

How many of these memecoins are “successful” for investors?

The answer is, not much.

According to data from Adam_Tehc in August, 64.7% of pump.fun traders on Solana lost money or at best broke even. Only 3% of wallets made more than a thousand dollars in profit, and only a handful of wallets, 0.0028%, made $1 million on memecoin.

Recently, the chain has gradually become cold, which is also a good thing. In addition, the recent plunge of A-shares has slowly led to the return of funds to the cryptocurrency circle, and the real value coins have ushered in a boom.

Currently looking at several targets

1.LPT

The AI ​​track is the biggest narrative in this cycle. Musk is also vigorously developing AI. At the same time, LPT is also the project with the lowest market value in Grayscale AI Fund. Grayscale has always been the market maker of LPT, and its potential in the later stage is very large.

2.OK

The RWA track is a grand concept. In less than half a year, the assets under management of BUIDL, a tokenized fund launched by BlackRock on Ethereum, have exceeded US$500 million, pushing the total value of tokenized government securities on public blockchains to more than US$1.5 billion.

The key to the future lies in one simple fact: tokenized assets are the best way to represent financial assets

ONDO is a financial protocol in the RWA track. Its main business is to tokenize high-quality assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and money market funds within a compliance framework.

In addition, BlackRock is one of the promoters of ETH ETF, the core of which is to put display assets on the chain + tokenization

3.FTM

This target cannot be viewed in a short-term way. The chips are fully circulated and it is currently undergoing a new upgrade. It is fully compatible with EVM. All rewards are for developers. There are several highlights that are likely to gain more hype at the narrative level.

AC in the FTM team, in short, is the leader of DeFi and is known as DeFi Satoshi, and DeFi has a sense of restart.