The main reason for the decline of Bitcoin last night was that the CPI data was higher than expected, and the market's concerns about inflation have risen again. In addition, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized that it should act according to the data. Now everyone basically expects that the next interest rate cut may be 25 basis points.
In addition, Netanyahu and Biden had a phone call, and the impact was superimposed, and the psychological barrier of 60,000 US dollars was abandoned. This point is still very critical, and it is estimated that it will affect the market trend throughout October.
To be honest, I hate geopolitical risks. There is too much chance, and I am not good at geopolitics, and I am not even interested in geography. If I have to bet, I will bet that crude oil will rise, but this will push up inflation and slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, which is really annoying.
I didn't notice that Biden mentioned that he would not retaliate immediately in his speech, so I specially looked at the details of his call with Netanyahu. Biden's statement is basically useless. The US side just expressed its position, and Israel's response was just "I know." The key is that the US has repeatedly stressed that it will not attack Iran's crude oil facilities, but Israel has not promised at all. I think it is very likely that they will attack crude oil facilities, and Iran may retaliate by blocking the Strait. After all, during the friction in September, Israel ignored Biden's ceasefire agreement, and this time it said not to attack oil production facilities, but the two sides did not reach an agreement at all.
It feels that a full-scale war is almost inevitable. I hope that it will not directly hit the nuclear facilities, which would be crazy.
Let's fight earlier. If it really happens, the market may feel better. After all, like Russia and Ukraine, the repeated torture before the fight was the most unbearable. Once the fight starts, the uncertainty is eliminated, and the market will not be so uncomfortable. The market is most afraid of this uncertainty.
