Gulf states are lobbying Washington to stop Israel from attacking Iranian oil facilities because they fear their own oil facilities could be attacked by Iranian proxies if the conflict escalates, according to three Gulf sources.

To avoid being drawn into the crossfire, Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have also refused to allow Israel to fly in their airspace for any strikes on Iran and have informed Washington of this, three sources close to government circles said.

Israel has promised Iran that it will pay a price for last week's missile attack, while Iran has said any retaliation would be met with a massive response, raising fears of a larger war in the region that could draw in the United States.

The moves by the Gulf states follow diplomatic efforts by Iran’s non-Arab Shia factions to persuade its Sunni Gulf neighbors to use their influence with Washington amid growing concerns that Israel could target Iranian oil production facilities.

Iranian officials and diplomats revealed that during the talks this week, Iran warned Saudi Arabia that it could not guarantee the security of Saudi oil facilities if Israel received any Saudi assistance in launching an attack. Ali Shihabi, a Saudi analyst with close ties to the Saudi royal family, said, "The Iranians have stated: 'If the Gulf countries open their airspace to Israel, it will be an act of war.'"

The diplomat said Iran had sent a clear message to Saudi Arabia that its allies in countries such as Iraq or Yemen could respond if support for Israel against Iran emerged in the region.

Gulf and Iranian sources said a potential Israeli attack was the focus of talks on Wednesday between Saudi de facto ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi, who is on a Gulf tour to drum up support.

A Gulf source close to government circles said the Iranian foreign minister's visit and Saudi-U.S. defense-level communications were part of a coordinated effort to resolve the crisis.

A Washington source familiar with the discussions confirmed that Gulf officials have contacted their U.S. counterparts to express concerns about the potential scope of expected Israeli retaliation.

The White House declined to comment when asked whether the Gulf governments had asked Washington to ensure Israel’s response was proportionate. U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israel’s retaliation in a phone call on Wednesday, with both sides describing it as positive.

“Gulf anxiety is likely to be a key topic in negotiations with Israel to try to persuade Israel to take a cautious response,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy director of national intelligence and now at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington.

Is global oil supply at risk?

OPEC, which is effectively led by Saudi Arabia, has enough spare oil production capacity to make up for any losses if Israel’s retaliatory actions damaged some Iranian oil facilities.

But much of that spare capacity is in the Gulf, so if oil facilities in places like Saudi Arabia or the UAE were also targeted, the world could face oil supply problems.

Saudi Arabia has been on alert for attacks by Iran since the 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco oil fields that cut more than 5% of global oil supply.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have eased in recent years, but trust issues remain. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates all host U.S. military facilities.

Another Gulf source said concerns about oil facilities and the potential for a wider regional conflict were also at the center of talks between UAE officials and their U.S. counterparts.

In 2022, Yemen's Iran-linked Houthi rebels fired missiles and drones at fuel trucks near a refinery owned by the UAE national oil company ADNOC, claiming responsibility for the attack on the refinery.

"The Gulf countries will not allow Israel to use their airspace. They will not allow Israeli missiles to pass through and they also hope that Israel will not attack their oil facilities," the Gulf source said.

Three Gulf sources stressed that Israel could launch attacks via Jordan or Iraq, but using Saudi, UAE or Qatari airspace was impossible and not strategically necessary.

Analysts also noted that Israel has other options, including using its aerial refueling capabilities, which would allow Israeli warplanes to fly along the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, then to the Gulf and back.

‘In the middle of a missile war’

Two senior Israeli officials said Israel would tailor its response and as of Wednesday had not decided whether to attack Iran’s oil fields. The option was one of many presented to Israeli leaders by the defense establishment, according to the officials.

"Our strikes will be lethal, precise and, most importantly, unexpected," Israeli Defense Minister Galant said on Wednesday. "They will not understand what happened and how. They will see the results."

Saudi Arabia, a major oil exporter, and its oil-producing neighbours including the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain all have a keen interest in de-escalating tensions in the Middle East, three Gulf sources said.

"We are going to be in the middle of a missile war," a second Gulf source said. "There is great concern, especially if the Israeli strikes target Iranian oil facilities."

Three Gulf sources said an Israeli attack on Iran's oil infrastructure would have global implications, especially for Harris, who will run against Trump in the November 5 presidential election. "If oil prices soar to $120 a barrel, it will hurt the U.S. economy and Harris' chances of winning the election. So they (Americans) will not allow the war to expand," the first Gulf source said.

Gulf sources said that despite advanced missiles and Patriot air defense systems, protecting all oil facilities remains a challenge, so the main approach remains diplomacy: signaling to Iran that Gulf states do not pose a threat.

Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern studies at Princeton University, noted that Saudi Arabia is vulnerable "because of the proximity and the Iranians can attack these facilities."

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data