Early this morning, the Federal Reserve released important news!
This morning, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September interest rate meeting. The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, but this decision was not unanimous. Most officials agreed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but some officials felt that a 25 basis point cut would be enough. They felt that it should be done slowly, which is more in line with the path of monetary policy normalization.
The minutes said that if inflation continues to move toward the 2% target and the job market remains strong, the Fed may adopt a more neutral monetary policy stance in the future.
As soon as the news came out, U.S. stocks rose across the board, and the S&P 500 index hit a record high. Chinese stocks also rebounded, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index narrowed its losses.
The market now expects that the Federal Reserve has almost zero chance of cutting interest rates in November, and expects a rate cut of about 47 basis points by the end of 2024, which is much lower than before.
The US CPI data for September is coming out soon, and the market expects the year-on-year growth rate to slow down. At the same time, both the US mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield have risen.
Important CPI data in September will determine whether the Fed will cut interest rates
Tonight at 8:30 pm, the United States will release the unadjusted CPI annual rate and the adjusted CPI monthly rate for September. CPI is an important indicator for measuring the price level of consumer goods and services, and its changes have an important impact on inflation and economic growth. If the CPI data is higher than expected, it may cause market concerns about inflation, which in turn will have an impact on the financial market. For the cryptocurrency market, the release of CPI data is also of great significance and may cause drastic market fluctuations.
Today's short-term market will be affected by news. The Americans will announce the CP at 8:30 pm. Short-term players should pay attention to position management!
CPI data will be released tonight. Will it accelerate the bull market? Is 73,000 just the starting point?
First of all, from the current macroeconomic perspective, the data in recent months has been getting better and better, including CPI, dot plot, unemployment benefits, employment, etc. After all, there will be interest rate cuts this year, and the data is definitely expected to develop in a positive direction.
The expected value of CPI this time is 2.3%, and the previous value is 2.5%
Objective analysis meets expectations
If it is lower than the previous value, then it is a small positive.
If it is lower than the expected value, then a big positive line will be arranged directly
Even if the expected value does not exceed the previous value, it is still within the expected range of the market. Whether the market will stabilize at the 60,000 mark or fall below it tonight depends on whether these data are strong enough.
Some analysts also believe that given the strength of the US economy and continued inflation, the Fed may only cut interest rates once more, by a total of 25 basis points, in the remainder of the year.
In general, although there are differences within the Fed on rate cuts, the overall tone of the market on the rate cut cycle has not changed, which is good news for the stock market. At the same time, the market's expectations for future rate cuts by the Fed have cooled, and no significant rate cuts are expected in the short term.
If Bitcoin wants to reach new highs, it needs these 3 factors to boost it!
1: In the US election, the Democratic Party will not win a complete victory.
The US election has a great impact on the cryptocurrency industry. Many people think that Trump is friendly to cryptocurrency, while Harris is not so friendly. But in fact, the Democratic Party’s attitude towards cryptocurrency is not one-sided. There are some who are not very supportive of cryptocurrency, such as Elizabeth Warren, and some who are supportive, such as Ritchie Torres.
The industry has had a tough time over the past four years as Democrats, who are not very supportive of cryptocurrencies, have controlled policy, but if the Democrats don’t win a big election, their attitude toward cryptocurrencies could become more neutral.
Now, even Democrats who were not optimistic about cryptocurrencies before have begun to admit that cryptocurrencies are an inevitable trend. This change in attitude may push the price of Bitcoin to $80,000.
2: 2 interest rate cuts and massive global economic stimulus
Despite the growth of the US economy, the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates, and China has also launched an economic stimulus plan, which has boosted the price of cryptocurrencies. The market is now expecting more stimulus measures. It is expected that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again before the end of the year, and China may also launch new stimulus policies.
3: There will be no major negative surprises for cryptocurrencies
The last thing needed for Bitcoin to achieve new highs is a period without major surprises. No major hacks. No massive new lawsuits. No previously locked-up coins suddenly hitting the market. Unfortunately, the history of cryptocurrency is beset with countless such surprises.
If these predictions come true, the cryptocurrency market could rebound in the fourth quarter.
