After the Fed minutes, the odds of no rate cut in November have increased. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is still the mainstream. Economists believe that as long as the labor market remains stable, the Fed is unlikely to cut rates again significantly. With strong employment, the only factor that can keep the Fed from cutting rates is milder CPI inflation data.
Later today, we will get the US CPI inflation data for September, and the market expects the inflation rate to fall further, from 2.5% to 2.3%, which will also bring volatility to the Bitcoin price.
The current Bitcoin market is really boring, still moving between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It's just that we just fell below the 4-hour MA200. If we can't see a certain degree of rebound, Bitcoin is at risk of falling below $60,000.
It is worth noting that all long positions above $60,000 were liquidated in this wave of decline. $60,000 is a very critical level. If Bitcoin falls below this level next, short-term market sentiment may become more negative.
In addition, if you look at the trend of the total market value of cryptocurrencies, you can see some cyclical patterns by calculating the number of days between the market value peaks. It took 1,402 days from 2014 to 2018, and the historical highs from 2018 to 2021 were only 1,400 days apart.
From the historical peak in 2014 to the final accumulation stage before the peak in 2018, it took a total of 1,068 days. And from the historical peak in 2018 to the accumulation stage before 2021, it also took 1,065 days. We are currently experiencing a similar accumulation stage as in the past, and a new round of bull market may be ushered in next, and the total market value of cryptocurrencies is expected to see a new high.
Judging from the wave chart of realized market value, there is still a lack of more new retail investors entering the market. We saw a small bull top in the first half of the year, and it is expected that we will see the highest point of the cycle of Bitcoin in the next year.
