After the Fed's meeting minutes, the probability of no rate cut in November has increased. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is still the mainstream. Economists believe that as long as the labor market remains stable, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates again. With strong employment, the only factor that can make the Fed continue to cut interest rates is milder CPI inflation data.

Later today, we will get the US CPI inflation data for September, and the market expects the inflation rate to fall further, from the previous 2.5% to 2.3%, which will also bring volatility to the Bitcoin price.

The current Bitcoin market is indeed boring, still moving between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. It’s just that we just fell below the 4-hour MA200. If we can’t see a certain degree of rebound, Bitcoin is at risk of falling below $60,000.

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It is worth noting that all long positions above $60,000 were liquidated in this wave of decline. $60,000 is a very critical level. If Bitcoin falls below this level next, short-term market sentiment may become more negative.

In addition, if you look at the trend of the total market value of cryptocurrencies, you can see some cyclical patterns by calculating the number of days between the peaks of the market value. From 2014 to 2018, it took 1,402 days, while from 2018 to 2021, the historical highs were only 1,400 days apart.

From the historical peak in 2014 to the final accumulation phase before the peak in 2018, it took a total of 1,068 days. From the historical peak in 2018 to the accumulation phase before 2021, it also took 1,065 days. We are currently experiencing a similar accumulation phase to the past, and a new round of bull market may be ushered in next. The total market value of cryptocurrencies is expected to see a new high.

Judging from the wave chart of realized market value, there is still a lack of new retail investors entering the market. We saw a small bull top in the first half of the year, and it is expected that in the next year, we will see the highest point of the Bitcoin cycle.

On the other hand, I have previously reported on Cryptocod’s view that if the Bitcoin up cycle ends at this point, Bitcoin’s whale investors will experience the least gains similar to those in the bull market. From this, it can be inferred that whales will not easily sell their Bitcoins, but may continue to hold and gradually increase their holdings to wait for further market rebounds in the future.

In addition, the Bitcoin Cycle Master Indicator shows that we are still a long way from the cycle peak. We have always discussed the second wave of distribution in the cycle, and the data shows that this process seems to have begun, as the supply share of short-term holders increases, while the supply share of long-term holders is decreasing.

This process always corresponds to a sharp rise in Bitcoin prices. Krytokon's tweet also reported this. We can see that the first wave of large chip distribution in this cycle began at the end of last year, corresponding to the first wave of Bitcoin's price bull market. After six months of sideways trading, those who entered the market to buy Bitcoin in the first quarter gradually became long-term holders, resulting in an increase in the supply share of long-term holders.

Of course, I mentioned before that this has led to an increase in the average purchase price of the long-term holders. Now that the proportion of short-term holders' supply has begun to increase, long-term holders will gradually start to sell Bitcoin, which is a sign of the beginning of the second half of the bull market. So as Lucno said, you must hold on to your Bitcoin at this stage, and even if you do nothing else, you can outperform 90% of people.

I remember in an earlier video, I discussed the bear market bottom in 2026, which is calculated based on the average price line of long-term holders. If this blue line can rise to $40,000 at the end of the bull market next year, considering that Bitcoin tends to fall below this at the bottom of the year-long bear market, my price forecast for the bottom of the bear market at the end of 2026 is between $35,000 and $40,000.

Of course, I will adjust this forecast next year, because I don’t know what level this blue line will rise to when the bull market ends next year. Cryptocond recently tweeted that Bitcoin has never fallen below the cost basis of big whales, which means that the average cost of whales holding more than 10,000 Bitcoins has now risen to $40,000.

Although it seems a bit premature to discuss the Lion bottom at the end of 2026, I think it is meaningful to discuss the big trends.

Glasno released the latest weekly report, and they gave a lot of indicators for reference, but I don’t want to discuss them too much in this issue. One of the indicators we have discussed is the price of active investors in Bitcoin and the real market average price of Bitcoin, which correspond to the red line and the blue line respectively.

The red line represents the price of active investors, which is currently around $52,000. It is worth noting that it is not completely equivalent to the traditional average price line. Instead, the calculation method is more complicated. The purpose is to reflect the average holding cost of active investors, not just the average purchase price of investors. The logic behind it is to exclude those Bitcoin holders who have been inactive for a long time, such as Bitcoin that has been lost or not transferred for a long time, and only consider those investors who are more active in trading in a shorter period of time.

Bitcoin has approached the average cost of active investors twice in previous waves of decline. After the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, a black swan event occurred on August 5, and Bitcoin briefly fell below this level. Even so, the blue line can still support the price of Bitcoin, currently pointing to $47,500.

From a larger historical cycle perspective, it is reasonable to say that Bitcoin is in the middle of a bull market, and we will have another upward trend.

Ethereum seems to have two similar lines, and I always emphasize this point. $1,900-2,300 is a relatively critical price level for Ethereum, and it can also be said that this is a good opportunity to buy in batches. Alei tweeted before that $2,300 is a very important support level, and I agree with this. It’s just that the Ethereum market is indeed sluggish now.

The continued selling by the Ethereum Foundation, the decline in interest in Ethereum, and the poor performance of the spot Ethereum ETF are all factors that have contributed to the weakness in Ethereum prices. Coupled with the surge in layer 2 transactions after the Cancun upgrade, which led to a decrease in fees generated by the Ethereum mainnet and a corresponding decrease in the number of Ethereum destroyed, Ethereum's inflation rate has increased, breaking the previous deflationary trend.

Finally, I would like to talk about FTX. As we know, on October 7, the Delaware Bankruptcy Court approved FTX's bankruptcy repayment plan. About 98% of creditors will receive 119% of the original debt amount.

This means that these FTX creditors will not only receive the amount they hold in FTX, but will also receive an additional 19% interest. It is worth noting that the repayment will be mainly in cash, because current documents show that FTX cannot provide enough assets for repayment in the original form of cryptocurrency.

The repayment amount received by creditors is based on the price of cryptocurrencies at the time of the FTX crash in November 2022. The first batch of repayments to creditors will focus on claims less than $50,000, and payments are expected to be made within 60 days. Those with larger amounts are planned to be repaid in the first or second quarter of 2025.

Although repayment is expected to begin by the end of 2024, this is only an estimate, and it is still unknown whether the funds can be disbursed on time. Most of FTX's assets have been sold in the past 12 months, especially in 2023, and the sale of most assets has already been approved by the court.

For example, earlier this year, FTX sold more than $1 billion worth of Grayscale, and GBTC Salana is also in the process of being sold. Most of the Salana assets held by FTX are still in the storage period and are not expected to be fully unlocked for trading until the next few years.

Nonetheless, FTX has sold these tokens at a discount to large asset managers, and these buyers are taking on the risk that Solana could be worth less when it is unlocked.

It is said that the bankrupt FTX still holds a large amount of FTT, as well as a portion of bit and word, which are the main assets currently known. In addition, there are some relatively small assets. Although it is possible that FTX has other undisclosed assets behind the scenes, the large-scale asset sell-off has been completed before the restructuring plan is confirmed. Some smaller assets are still being sold gradually, and it was reported a few days ago that FTX will start selling its wood tokens.

Regarding the repayment plan, some investors may of course choose to exit the market, while others may reinvest the repayment funds. All of this is still uncertain, and the final market reaction will depend on the repayment situation.

In theory, there are 14 days after the judgment to allow for objections. After that, FTX has about 90 days to submit a final payment plan. The plan clearly states that making payments as quickly as possible is a priority, as the ongoing litigation costs and asset management fees are said to be as high as millions of dollars per day.

However, I am not a professional in this field, but I just feel that this is a bit too expensive. I don’t know if this data is really true. In any case, if the payment time is excessively delayed, these fees will become very expensive. The time when FPX creditors can finally receive funds may be at the end of 2024 or even 2025. It will disappoint some people early, but in the long run, some of this money will drive the demand for Bitcoin purchases.