| The recent good performance of US economic data, with continuous surprises, has eliminated the reason for a sharp interest rate cut, and even confirmed that the sharp interest rate cut in September was not reasonable. Against this background, the Fed's decision-making process in September has attracted much attention.

Early this morning, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting were released, recording a lot of details about the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points - something that was beyond many people’s expectations.

Back to the minutes themselves, this 17-page minutes shows unprecedented divisions within the Fed - more than one person opposed a 50 basis point rate cut (although we only saw one dissenting vote from Fed Governor Bowman). There are three key points in the minutes:

There are three key points in the meeting minutes:

The most critical sentence: Some participants said that they would have preferred a 25 basis point rate cut at this meeting, and several others said that they would have supported such a decision. Traders often focus on the words "several participants" (representing several people), "some participants" (more than a few people), "majority of participants" (representing more than half of the people), and "participants generally believe" (representing everyone) to judge which issues the Fed disagrees on. This time the Fed used the word "some participants", and the officials who supported a 25 basis point rate cut may be just slightly less than half, not a minority. The future remarks of these compromising officials will affect the market, because the employment data temporarily confirms that their views are correct.

Second sentence highlights: Participants also generally agreed that the initial move did not represent a commitment by the Fed to a specific pace of future rate cuts - emphasizing that large rate cuts would not become the norm

Key point of the third sentence: Several participants noted that a 25 basis point cut would be consistent with a gradual path of policy normalization and would give policymakers time to assess the extent of policy restrictions as economic conditions change - this sentence may become a consensus at the Federal Reserve in the future.

All in all, this meeting minutes confirmed our speculation that the decision to cut interest rates sharply in September was made by Fed Chairman Powell using his influence (to persuade certain officials).

Since the minutes were released during a trading period when global markets were not active and many people were not sensitive to the minutes, they did not trigger an instant reaction in the market. However, the hawkish tone of the minutes will remain for some time to come.

It is worth noting that before the release of the Fed meeting minutes, a speech by Dallas Fed President Logan startled the market.

Logan said the Fed should slow down its pace of rate cuts after a sharp rate cut in September. Given the still real upside risks to inflation and the significant uncertainties in the economic outlook, it is hoped that future rate cuts will be smaller.

What Logan meant was a "gradual" rate cut, but because she pointed out the upside risks to inflation, the word "gradual" may mean "intermittent" rate cuts rather than rate cuts at every meeting.

The market believes that the probability of pausing interest rate cuts at the November meeting is 17%, higher than 12% on Tuesday. The great changes have already happened, but many people have not felt it. Gold and US Treasury bonds have already fallen. #BTC #ETH #6万保卫战 #你认为PeterTodd是中本聪吗？ #特朗普当选概率上升