Mini Program: Daily Cryptocurrency Dynamics Summary
1. Goldman Sachs: Bitcoin has risen more than 40% so far this year, but gold wins in risk-adjusted returns
According to CoinDesk, Goldman Sachs analysis shows that Bitcoin has risen by more than 40% this year, outperforming major stock indexes, fixed-income securities, gold, and even oil, which has recently risen due to geopolitical tensions. However, according to data tracked by Goldman Sachs, its outstanding performance is not enough to make up for its volatility. Bitcoin's volatility return so far this year is less than 10%, far lower than the gold industry-leading risk-adjusted return of nearly 20%. Gold has risen by 28% in absolute terms. The relatively low risk-adjusted performance confirms the long-standing view of cryptocurrency skeptics that Bitcoin is too volatile to be a safe haven like gold.
2. Matrixport: Bitcoin earnings stabilize after halving, mining stocks may rebound
Matrixport released a chart showing that since the halving in April 2024, the daily revenue of Bitcoin mining has dropped sharply from US$70 million to US$31 million. However, mining stocks have performed relatively steadily, although slightly worse than Bitcoin, but overall performance is better than expected. As earnings gradually bottom out, mining stocks may rebound. Many mining companies choose to hold Bitcoin inventory and reduce selling on exchanges, thereby easing market selling pressure. This strategy not only provides shareholders with Bitcoin operating leverage, but also increases inventory leverage. Micro Strategy shareholders have received rich returns with a similar strategy.
3. Crypto.com confirms receipt of the Wells Notice from the US SEC and has filed a lawsuit against the SEC
According to official news, Crypto.com confirmed that it had received a Wells notice from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and announced that it had filed a lawsuit against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The Wells notice indicated that SEC staff believed that the company may have violated federal securities laws. Crypto.com said that the notice showed that the unauthorized and unfair law enforcement and regulatory activities of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission continued despite bipartisan statements that the next government would take a more constructive and effective approach to promote the development of encryption technology in the United States. The Crypto.com lawsuit believes that the SEC unilaterally expanded its jurisdiction beyond statutory limits and that the SEC has established an illegal rule that almost all transactions in crypto assets are securities transactions, regardless of how they are sold, while the same transactions in Bitcoin and Ethereum are not.
4. Bitcoin mining revenues continued to decline in September as network hash rate rose
According to The Block, in September, listed crypto miners as a whole experienced a decline in daily revenue for the third consecutive month, while the network difficulty increased, making the situation more difficult. According to a report by JPMorgan, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network increased every month in the second quarter, reaching 643 EH/s in September, an increase of 2% from August. At the same time, the revenue per EH/s of miners fell by 6% month-on-month, averaging $42,100. The total market value of the 14 US listed Bitcoin miners tracked by JPMorgan rose by 4% in September to $21 billion. In September, MARA (formerly Marathon Digital Holdings) produced 705 Bitcoins, an increase of 6% from August; the company did not sell any Bitcoins and currently has a total of 26,842 BTC. Riot Platforms mined 412 BTC in September, an increase of 28% from August, and currently holds 10,427 BTC. CleanSpark mined 493 BTC in September, bringing its total holdings to 8,049 BTC. Bitfarms produced 217 BTC in September, down 7% from the previous month; the company sold 173 BTC but added 44 BTC to its treasury, currently holding 1,147 BTC worth $73.4 million. TeraWulf mined 176 BTC in September, running at an average rate of 8.2 EH/s. Core Scientific mined 345 BTC in September, slightly lower than the 358 BTC in August, and sold 370 BTC. While some miners have seen an increase in overall production, others such as Cipher Mining have taken a different approach, selling 923 Bitcoins in September while mining only 155 Bitcoins. Hut 8 produced 85 BTC, bringing its total holdings to 9,106 BTC.
5. The cryptocurrency promoted by American rapper Cardi B has been traced back to the origin of the scam
According to Cointelegraph, the crypto wallet address shared by American rapper and social media celebrity CardiB when her social account was stolen to promote WAP tokens has been traced to an experienced crypto scammer. An initial investigation by anonymous blockchain investigator Wazz showed that the wallet address shared by CardiB was linked to multiple RugPull projects. Crypto security company Paidun suspected that CardiB's X account may have been hacked by crypto scammers. However, CardiB recently posted several cat-related tweets, suggesting that the decision to reveal WAP tokens was pre-planned. Wazz also refuted Paidun's speculation that the account may have been hacked. Wazz said: "She was not compromised, this was premeditated." Whether this is a scam or a legitimate project, crypto community members have noticed the prevalence of scams and frauds associated with celebrity tokens. Blockchain data visualization platform BubbleMaps found that 60% of the WAP supply was bundled for sale at the time of release. In addition, it also pointed out that within 10 hours after the project was launched, tokens worth about $500,000 had been sold.
6. Report: FTX repayment is not expected to be super positive for the crypto market
According to Decrypt, PrestoLabs released a new report pointing out that retail investors may be too optimistic about FTX's court-approved bankruptcy plan. Analysts questioned whether the $16 billion cash repayment in the plan can flow back into the cryptocurrency market. PrestoLabs pointed out: "It is too early to assume that creditors will directly put cash back into the market. To make such a comprehensive assumption, at least some analysis of the composition of claimants is required, and as far as we know, no one has publicly conducted such an analysis." The research company pointed out that repayments will begin within 60 days of the "effective" date of the plan, but the specific effective date has not yet been determined. This timetable indicates that any potential market impact will not be immediately apparent. At the same time, Kaiko, a crypto data provider, said that although the value of some assets such as SOL, TON and TRX has more than doubled since the collapse of FTX, other assets are facing major challenges. Kaiko pointed out that FTX holds an overwhelming position in certain tokens, such as 99% of MAPS tokens, 97% of OXY tokens and 95% of Serum (SRM) tokens. These positions are particularly problematic when liquidated, as they are likely to cause a price crash. Earlier today, the Delaware Bankruptcy Court formally approved the FTX reorganization plan, which will pay approximately 119% of the allowed claims to 98% of creditors within 60 days of taking effect.
7. UN agency recommends criminalizing unlicensed virtual asset service providers in Southeast Asia to combat online fraud
According to CoinDesk, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) called on Southeast Asian countries to criminalize the operation of unlicensed money service businesses or virtual asset service providers (VASPs). In a report released on Monday, the agency pointed out that some VASPs - including those associated with known criminals - are facilitating transactions for fraud gangs and high-risk gambling websites. According to reports, an unidentified entity has conducted transactions of "at least hundreds of millions of dollars" with criminal activities. These involve gangs directly related to or involved in large-scale drug trafficking, human trafficking, cybercrime and child sexual abuse materials, as well as entities sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) and wallets associated with the North Korean Lazarus Group. "More than ever, governments need to recognize the severity, scale and reach of this truly global threat and prioritize addressing the region's rapidly evolving criminal ecosystem," Masood Karimipour, UNODC regional representative, said in a statement. The agency also recommended increased oversight of organized crime involvement in casinos, charter tours, online scams and other businesses associated with fraudulent activity, and better training for law enforcement on online gambling operations and money laundering methods enabled by advanced technologies, particularly cryptocurrencies. The report noted that while not all scams in the region involve cryptocurrencies, they have become a favored payment method for scammers due to the speed and ease of cross-border transactions, widespread misinformation, a lack of understanding of how cryptocurrencies work, and in some cases, the failure of cross-border law enforcement cooperation, investigations, case acceptance and asset recovery mechanisms.
8. South Korean FSC official: The impact of the cryptocurrency market on financial stability is expected to expand
According to Chosun Biz, at the 2024 Seoul Fintech Week, Lee Hyun-deok, director of the Virtual Assets Regulatory Bureau of the Financial Services Commission (FSC) of South Korea, emphasized that although the impact of the cryptocurrency market on financial stability is still relatively limited, this impact is expected to intensify. He pointed out that South Korea's recent cryptocurrency regulatory measures may trigger further discussions on regulatory details, thereby bringing regulatory uncertainty. This uncertainty may have a potential impact on innovation and development in the cryptocurrency field.
9. QCP Capital: Still maintains a medium-term optimistic stance and expects election-related news to continue to drive cryptocurrency trends
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment agency, said that the rally in China's stock market after a week-long holiday failed to continue as the government briefing did not introduce new economic stimulus measures. The MSCI Asia Pacific stock index recorded its biggest drop in a month. Affected by super-large technology stocks and escalating geopolitical tensions, US stocks also fell overnight, with the volatility index (VIX) rising to 22 points. Interestingly, cryptocurrency volatility remained stable, with the front-end implied volatility trading around 43%, 3 percentage points lower than the 7-day historical actual volatility. Bloomberg previously reported that Chinese investors may have sold USDT to finance stock purchases since the end of September, while Bitcoin remained stable. As the rally in China's stock market fades, funds are expected to be reallocated back to cryptocurrencies, reflecting the growing maturity of cryptocurrencies as alternative risk assets. Given the upcoming earnings season and the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it is foreseen that there are downside risks in the stock market in the short term, which may pose a challenge to its high valuation. Geopolitical tensions further complicate the market outlook. However, QCP maintains a medium-term bullish stance and expects election-related news to continue to drive cryptocurrencies.
10. Standard Chartered Bank: If Trump is elected as the US president, Solana price may increase fivefold by the end of 2025
According to The Block, based on current prices and the potential impact of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election, Geoff Kendrick, head of global digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicts that by the end of 2025, Solana's price could rise fivefold, Ethereum could rise fourfold, and Bitcoin's value could rise threefold. He also said that if Harris becomes president, he expects Bitcoin to outperform Ethereum, which in turn outperforms Solana. He added: "In US dollar terms, we expect Ethereum to reach the $7,000 level by the end of 2025 under Harris' presidency." Regardless of the outcome of the November 5 election, Kendrick expects Bitcoin's price to rise to $200,000 by the end of 2025. Kendrick outlined the specific conditions needed to achieve his prediction for Solana's valuation. He believes that the Trump administration is more supportive of the Solana ecosystem than the Harris administration. He said: "With Trump as president, the launch of the Solana ETF is more likely." Kendrick said: "Indicators show that the market is very optimistic about Solana's future growth prospects, and its throughput is expected to increase by 100 to 400 times." He emphasized that to achieve his valuation forecast for Solana, the network's throughput needs to increase significantly. Kendrick pointed out that the new third-party validator client software Firedancer, which is designed to improve Solana's efficiency, needs to be put into operation, which is designed to increase transactions per second to 1 million times. In addition, he added that Solana needs to establish a dominant position in multiple fields including finance, consumer services, and decentralized physical infrastructure (DePIN), which usually have high requirements for throughput.
11. ARK Invest Bitcoin ETF transferred 2,495 BTC, worth more than $154 million
According to Arkham monitoring data, about seven hours ago, ARK Invest's spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund ARKB 21Shares Bitcoin ETF transferred a total of 2,495 BTC to two unknown addresses, worth approximately US$154.92 million.
12. In September, the overall revenue of listed crypto mining companies declined for the third consecutive month
In September, the overall revenue of listed crypto mining companies suffered a decline for the third consecutive month, and at the same time, the network difficulty increased, making the situation more difficult. According to a report by JPMorgan Chase, the hash rate of the Bitcoin network increased every month in the second quarter, reaching 643 EH/s in September, an increase of 2% from August. At the same time, the revenue per EH/s of miners fell by 6% month-on-month to an average of $42,100.
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data
