What broke people's defense after the National Day holiday was not only the continuous rise of A-share, but also the violent meme on the sui chain. If A-share's strong pull-up relying on policies and ignoring all negative factors is a dimensionality reduction attack on the web3 market, then the ten-thousand-fold increase of Hippo in ten days is a naked mockery of the old leeks in the circle.
Many partners suggested that we interpret the views on A-share market today, let’s have a brief chat about it.
Logically speaking, after the Fed cut interest rates, the central bank followed suit with a large number of loose policies, and directly or indirectly, trillions of yuan were put into place. There is no doubt that the domestic economy will enter a very strong rebound phase in the short and medium term, especially the A-share market. However, for a market that ignores fundamentals and data, the sustainability of policies is often limited.
In the case of respecting objective facts, the spring of the A-share market has definitely come, and it will last for a long period of time. However, in the short term, especially when the intraday high opens and falls back by 300 points, small-cycle adjustments are necessary. It is expected that the high point will continue to reach a new high after a stable fluctuation for one or two weeks. So if you are an old leek who has worked in the A-share market for many years, it is necessary to take advantage of the situation; but if you are a practitioner in the crypto market, cutting your coins to invest in the A-share market is a brain short circuit.
Regional trends and the tide of the times are never comparable in the long run.
The advantage of the crypto market is that it can ignore the market cycle changes caused by many human factors. Even if a short-term black swan outbreak causes the current market to deviate from the normal track, it will return to the established logical trend after a short period of repair. Decentralization is the most simple self-development idea and pursuit of mankind.
Sui's high point during this holiday is close to the previous high of 2.16 points. Its largest market value on the chain, meme coin Hippo, currently exceeds 150 million. It has risen more than 10,000 times in the twelve days since its opening, and there are obvious signals of large-scale pull-ups. The foresight of the market to get rich quickly often requires extreme sensitivity. After the meme wave, there is often another wash of the market. Wait until the noise is over.
On a macro level, yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of 235 million US dollars, while Ethereum data was zero. Last week's US non-farm data showed that the US economy is still very strong, which directly reduced the expectation of a 50 basis point interest rate cut in November. Sanshu believes that the soft landing of the economy will have more benefits than disadvantages for the overall performance of the crypto market in the later period. Between accelerating the bull market process after the black swan and slowing the market, the slow market rise is obviously more conducive to the nourishment of emotions.
Ethereum buying and selling have shown very extreme market performance in the past month. Previously, ICO big players sold more than 45,000 Ethereum in a month, and the amount of Ethereum that flowed out of the CEX platform in the past month exceeded 50,000. The emotional opposition between selling and buying directly led to the short-term disorder of the Ethereum market. The establishment of order between disorder and order means that the market situation will return to normal, and it still needs time.
The market logic of the crypto industry is still quite clear. With the start of the interest rate cut, liquidity is currently being snatched away by other sectors, and market attention is gradually increasing. The establishment of market demand can often be triggered by a thunderclap like the A-share market. Unfortunately, this washout on the eve of the reversal may become the end of many people's journey.
BTC: Bitcoin's trend line bulls showed signs of weakness twice yesterday and today. From a technical perspective, there is a great need for a downward correction. The possibility of a direct breakthrough of the trend pressure of 64,000-66,000 points at the high point is very low. The current situation is likely to continue to return to below 60,000 points to make the next reversal bottom. Therefore, in the short term, under the premise that there is no particularly good news that directly leads to the breakthrough of 66,000 points, it is very necessary to appropriately reduce positions and hedge risks. Conservative medium- and long-term strategies either wait for the breakthrough of the big cake to establish a reversal signal to chase, that is, above 66,000 points, or after falling below 58,000 points to bottom out. The short-term pressure of the daily line is 63,800 points, and the small support is 61,800 points, and the direction is short.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, there is really nothing much to say, just wait for Bitcoin to recover.
SUI: The explosion of the on-chain meme directly led to the increase in the price of the coin. At present, it is close to the historical high and it is not recommended to gamble on the edge. The cost performance is not high at this position. There is no indicator reference for the callback access point. It depends on when the on-chain activity will die down or explode again. If there is spot, it is appropriate to reduce the position and wait for new opportunities.
Bottom-picking targets: Wait until the big bitcoin pulls back before intervening. First of all, it is the public chain sector. SUI is very resistant to declines. Several stocks that have been paid attention to before, such as AVAX, NEAR and TON, can still be paid attention to after the decline. If TIA can reach around 4.5 points, you can pay attention to it with a small position.
The Fear and Greed Index is 49 during the day.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #非农人数大幅升温 #Sui上线原生USDC #美联储11月降息预期升温 $BTC
