A shares have been soaring wildly for five consecutive trading days since September 24, especially on September 30, when all the mobile phones of investors were filled with red. On October 8, the stock price was close to the daily limit as soon as it opened. This is the naked "temptation of money."

Some brokerage firms even set up stalls at night markets, and netizens joked: stocks going to the countryside...

Some young people who just opened an account got on board and made 30,000 yuan in three days; some were trapped, and 500,000 yuan of the 400,000 yuan they earned was their own principal; some used seven times leverage, with a principal of 400,000 yuan and a profit of 600,000 yuan; and some missed out on the opportunity. In this round of market boom, the pain of missing out is probably 10,000 times greater than being trapped, because no one wants to miss the opportunity to get rich overnight.

During the National Day holiday, Hong Kong took advantage of the A-share market being closed and the stock market rose wildly. The most direct stimulus was that people around them made profits. During the holiday, 6 million stock investors applied to open accounts, half of whom were born in the 1990s and 2000s.

Everyone is collecting bullets, but how to use them? Listen, watch and think.

01Young people’s dividend?

After the three top financial regulators launched a "policy combination punch" and the top leadership sent out strong signals of stabilizing growth, A-shares experienced an "epic" rebound. In just five trading days, the Shanghai, Shenzhen and ChiNext indices soared 21.37%, 30.26% and 42.12% respectively, making this a week that will go down in the history of China's stock market.

The trading volume of the two markets on September 30 soared to 2.59 trillion, breaking the record set on May 28, 2015.

When it was at 2600 points, no one was interested.

When the index reached 3,300 points, the whole world was scrambling for it.

Investors' emotions were completely ignited. Securities firms held high the banner of a bull market, shouting that it was the right time to open an account; a large number of new investors born after 1995 and 2000 rushed into the market; old investors also retrieved their passwords and reopened their accounts.

Many people say that the A-share market is the biggest opportunity to change the fate of the grassroots in recent years, and they will rush in even if they have to sell everything they have and borrow money. It makes people feel mixed emotions.

Someone summarized the dividends of our times for several generations:

Self-employed people born in the 1970s, real estate, and the 2007 bull market;

Internet, P2P, real estate, and the 2015 bull market for the post-80s generation;

Bitcoin for the post-90s, the 2015 bull market, and U.S. stocks;

And the super bull market in 2024 for those born after 2000.

Opportunities can be encountered by chance, but once you seize the dividends of the times, the gears of fate have already begun to turn.

And this wave of "bull market" is probably even crazier than that of 2015.

But whether to get on board or not, I advise young people to observe and think carefully before making a decision. If this is a real big trend, it will definitely not end in three or five days.

02Is the bull market here?

Buffett once said a theory, "You can only be rich once."

If a gun has a 50% chance of death and a 50% chance of winning 10 billion, you can take a gamble. But if you win the gamble and become a 10 billionaire, you should never touch this gun again in your life.

This is the principle of "only getting rich once".

When "wealth" is put on the A-share market, it is nothing more than a bull market in stocks.

Buying stocks means buying expectations and the future. Selling is the same. Buy when you are optimistic and sell when you are pessimistic.

And what are the basic elements of a bull market?

You Shanjun believes that there are four main points: first, the amount of funds is large enough; second, there are enough investors; third, the economic situation or external environment is improving, and the future performance of listed companies is promising; fourth, investors have reached a consensus and their emotions are stable.

Comparing these points, do you think the bull market has arrived?

As for opportunities, specifically for the stock market and even more transactions, the best opportunities and the worst opportunities often occur when people have major differences about the future, that is, when there are major changes and turning points.

The next market situation may have reached a new historical turning point. If the "effective bull" can be followed by the "policy bull", there may be a good market situation lasting for several years in the future, and many financial industry practitioners will finally be able to smile happily for once.

In short, the future is bright, but the road is tortuous. Don't be too happy or too sad, stay patient, and remember to maintain awe of the financial market.

03Global scramble for Chinese assets

With the introduction of a series of economic and policy measures, Chinese assets have become the focus of global capital and the target of crazy rush.

On October 7, Goldman Sachs issued another report to express its bullish view on Chinese stocks after raising its A-share rating to overweight. In the report, Goldman Sachs gave the top ten reasons to buy Chinese stocks, and its strategy report even bluntly stated: "If not now, when?"

Looking ahead to the future market, in addition to Goldman Sachs, Wall Street giants such as Morgan Stanley have also given positive predictions for the Chinese stock market.

"Expectations of further fiscal expansion are back on the table, which has investors looking at China from a reflation perspective for the first time in a long time," Laura Wang, the bank's chief China equity strategist, said in an interview. "The last time investors looked at China through this lens was actually after the beginning of last year. At that time, global investors were valuing it at about 12 times the expected price-to-earnings ratio of the MSCI China Index."

Zheshang Securities also released a report pointing out that, taking the Shanghai Composite Index as an observation object, the current A-share market shows characteristics similar to several reversal trends in history: valuations are at historical bottoms, the first round of rapid pull-ups in the reversal trend is underway, and it experienced a exhaustion-like decline before the pull-up.

Similar market windows in history appeared in April 1996, January 2009, and around January 2019. During these three periods, the first round of rapid increases in A-shares were between 30% and 35%. Although the time of each increase was different, the increase showed a high degree of consistency.

A-shares have once again proved with their surge that as long as the sentiment is right, fundamentals are not a problem.

As for your question of how long this stock market carnival can last, it depends on the extent to which fiscal and monetary policies can ultimately be in place.

Economically, China currently has a good hand. Not only is the traditional manufacturing industry complete and very competitive, but emerging industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic products are also rising rapidly. It is a good thing that Chinese assets are leading the world, and it is also something to be proud of. After all, betting on the country's destiny is the easiest opportunity for ordinary people like us to seize.

But at the same time, we should also note that the benefits of rising stock markets are not evenly distributed. Financial institutions, securities firms, fund companies, etc. are well-informed, professional, and have more funds at their disposal, so they naturally benefit the most.

However, ordinary retail investors often lack basic economic expertise and strict investment discipline, and they like to trade frequently. The short-term prosperity brought by the bull market often masks potential risks. Once the market fluctuates, retail investors will be the most likely to lose money.

The money earned by luck can easily be lost by actual strength, so please be sure to plan ahead and act within your means.

If you are a speculator: The worst thing about speculation is to turn it into reality. As Graham said, "It's not that you can't speculate, but the fatal threat is that you speculate and think you are investing. When you speculate, you should be like a gambler who still has some sense, bring only $100 to the casino, and lock the coffin book in the safe at home."

If you are a mature investor, you must always remind yourself to be rational, avoid "confirmation bias" and "blind optimism", and avoid being carried away by market sentiment.

It is said that there is a sentence in the "CIA" manual: "Never walk into a room you don't know how to walk out of."

You are destined to be rich and prosperous, I wish you happiness.