The financial war between China and the United States had ended on the day the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but the United States did not seem willing to admit defeat and reignited the war on October 4.

On August 21, the U.S. Census Bureau announced that the non-farm payroll data for the past year had been miscalculated and needed to be revised down by 818,000. This data stunned people all over the world. You have to know that the U.S. non-farm payroll data is only around 100,000 to 200,000 per month, and a fluctuation of 10% is enough to have a major impact on the economy. Now, a downward revision of an average of 70,000 per month is simply outrageous.

According to the downward revisions by the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. economic situation is very bad and an interest rate cut is urgently needed.

On September 18, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 50 basis points in one go, ending this round of US dollar interest rate hike frenzy.

At this point, the financial war between China and the United States ended. China withstood the dollar tide deliberately created by the United States, and its economy was not blown up. The United States paid huge military expenditures (high interest rates) out of thin air but did not gain any results.

On September 26, China's Political Bureau meeting set the tone and announced that it would "work hard to boost the capital market." Subsequently, the A-share market pulled out five breathtaking big positive lines, and the spectacle of stocks being unavailable for purchase anywhere appeared.

During the National Day holiday, large European and American capital institutions have turned long on the Chinese capital market, and a large amount of funds are ready to flow into the Chinese stock market from Europe and the United States, which makes the Federal Reserve uneasy.

In the financial war between China and the United States, the United States can lose, but it cannot lose so badly, otherwise it will lose face and the presidential election is coming soon.

So the Federal Reserve came up with a new trick.

On October 4, the U.S. Census Bureau released a very "explosive" non-farm employment data, announcing that the U.S. non-farm data in September increased by 254,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 150,000.

At the same time, the U.S. Census Bureau also announced that the employment data for July and August, which had just been significantly revised downward, were due to incorrect statistics and needed to be revised again. The non-farm payrolls in July were revised up from 89,000 to 144,000, and the non-farm payrolls in August were revised up from 142,000 to 159,000.

The newly revised non-farm data for July and August, when put together with the explosive non-farm data for September, prove that the U.S. economy is very strong and that on paper there is no need for a significant interest rate cut.

Before the release of new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the market believed that the Federal Reserve would continue to flood the market with money at its November interest rate meeting, with a 62.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.5% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut.

However, after the release of new data from the U.S. Census Bureau, the market revised its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts to 97.5% for a 25 basis point cut in November and 2.5% for a 50 basis point cut. Some bookmakers even wiped out bets on a 50 basis point cut in November.

The dollar strengthened a bit during the National Day holiday as expectations for the pace of the Fed's rate cuts were weakened.

A-shares continued to surge before the National Day. I thought it was the stock short sellers who were forced to short sell, but I never expected that it was the Federal Reserve that was forced to short sell.

The non-farm data from the U.S. Census Bureau was revised down by 50% and then revised up by 50%. It is obvious that the data is falsified. Even a fool can see that this is definitely not the real data. Those big capitalists are all shrewd people. Do they believe this kind of data?

Of course they don't believe it. How could they believe something that even ordinary people can see is fake data? But it doesn't matter, because the U.S. Census Bureau's public release of such data represents the Federal Reserve's intention. Those big capitals believe that after these data are released, the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, and that's enough.

Therefore, you should not regard the so-called non-farm data from the U.S. Census Bureau as the real non-farm data. It has become a code, a code of the Federal Reserve.

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, China's economic stimulus policies directly triggered an explosive rise in the capital market, which caused great panic in the American political arena.

This kind of sharp and violent surge in prices caused by a short squeeze is rare in the world. Under the United States' tireless propaganda in recent years, the weakness of China's capital market has long become a symbol and evidence of the poor performance of the Chinese economy. Now, a huge surge of this scale represents the complete failure of the US strategy to contain China in the eyes of Americans, which is unacceptable.

As for the success or failure of the financial war between China and the United States, in fact, only we ourselves think that the United States lost. The United States will not admit it. The United States only admits that it did not win, but believes that China is so miserable that it is on its last breath.

But the surge in China's capital market directly proved to the world that the loser was the United States, and the two sides were not even a draw.

On October 5, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers publicly stated: "In hindsight, the Fed's 50-point rate cut last month may have been a mistake."

Therefore, the Federal Reserve urgently needs to take action to prove to the world that it just didn’t win, but definitely didn’t lose.

As a result, there is the spectacle of the U.S. Bureau of Statistics repeatedly contradicting itself by first significantly revising the data downward and then significantly revising the data upward.

What impact will the Fed’s actions have on our country?

It doesn't have much impact. At most, it will slightly slow down the expected pace of US interest rate cuts, but it will not affect the overall situation.

After the Fed's operation, the overseas A50 Index, China Dragon ETF Index and the gains of Chinese stocks listed in the United States were not greatly affected. The market data released by US institutions themselves showed that interest rates would still be cut in November, but the probability was that the rate would be cut by 25 basis points, and the probability of a further cut of 50 basis points was almost zero. However, no one believed that the United States would raise interest rates, and no one even believed that there would be no interest rate cut in November.

A secret code is a secret code, but no matter how strong the secret code is, it cannot violate basic economic laws.

The United States should have cut interest rates a long time ago, but it dragged it out for so long just to wait and see if a miracle would happen. It refused to take medicine for its high blood pressure, but after waiting for a long time, it didn't get what it wanted and fainted from hypoglycemia. It only started to cut interest rates when it couldn't hold on any longer.

A 50 basis point interest rate cut in one go let the whole world know the true strength of the U.S. economy. The market not only believed that a U.S. interest rate cut was inevitable, but also expected the rate cut to be very fast.

As former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers said, the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut last month may have been a mistake.

But this was only said after seeing the surge in China's capital market. Before that, the former Treasury Secretary said nothing. This shows that what the former Treasury Secretary could not stand was not the Fed's first 50 basis point interest rate cut, but the surge in China's capital market.

But will the situation get better if someone else takes charge of the Federal Reserve?

The Federal Reserve has been holding on for a very long time. If it were not for suppressing China, it would have cut interest rates long ago. The reason it waited until September this year to cut interest rates was because the situation had become so urgent that it had no choice but to do so.

As long as the interest rate cut cycle channel is opened, will a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September change anything?

It may be possible to reduce the rise of a few percentage points in China's capital market in the past five days, but it cannot change the general trend of interest rate cuts in the United States, nor can it change the final high point of this round of rise in China's capital market. It has no practical significance for the United States.

Today, it is because of the sudden surge in China's capital market that has caused strong dissatisfaction among American politicians, accusing the Federal Reserve of being too aggressive in its interest rate cut policy, which has led to the surge in China's stock market. This is purely funny and an attempt to shirk responsibility.

If the Fed's policy of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is really so magical, why has the 500 basis point rate hike in the past two years failed to blow up China's capital market?

It is obvious that internal factors are the main factors, and external factors are just a fuse.

It is the United States' blatant manipulation of the non-farm data that fully highlights the Federal Reserve's incompetence in this round of financial war.

In the financial war that lasted for more than two years, the Federal Reserve spent a huge amount of military expenditures (high interest rates), but failed to defeat China. This is fine, after all, the general trend between China and the United States is not something the Federal Reserve has the ability to reverse on its own.

However, China's capital market will surge after the Fed cut interest rates. The Fed could not predict this and was unwilling to accept it after seeing it with their own eyes. This is a bit funny and seriously damages the Fed's professional image.

It is so shameful that they blatantly falsified non-farm data in front of the whole world.

The world once believed that financial warfare was the field in which the United States was best at, and it was the area where the United States was most ahead of China.

That is why the Chinese were so excited when the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, because even the most patriotic Chinese felt that the United States was too strong in the financial field. If China could defend itself against the tide of the US dollar and survive all US attacks with low damage, it would be a great victory.

We never expected that the first financial policy we introduced after the US interest rate cut would throw the Federal Reserve into a state of panic.

This time, the United States has once again significantly revised its non-farm data, turning the behavior of falsifying non-farm data from suspected to confirmed. We cannot say that the Federal Reserve has failed, but it is safe to say that the Federal Reserve has been thrown into a mess by one of our policies.

It is obvious that every policy of the Federal Reserve is within our expectations. We have also made corresponding plans in advance and successfully implemented them, but our policies are not what the Federal Reserve expected. Moreover, the military expenditure spent by the United States in this round of financial war is obviously far greater than ours, because the United States has a high-interest policy and we have a low-interest policy.

If you pay high interest but fail to drain away the funds of your low-interest counterparts, then you are definitely losing.

The financial war is over, and the United States has once again drastically revised the non-farm data to reignite the war, just to ensure that it does not lose face before the election, but it cannot change the general trend.

Having lost all the major battles, the consequence is a crushing defeat. No one in the world will expect the United States to raise interest rates again. It is just a matter of how much and how fast the rate cut will be. No matter how much resistance there is, it will only be at the level of scattered soldiers and brave warriors.

However, China issued a policy before the National Day, which suddenly boosted the Chinese stock market, causing panic in the United States and putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. I very much doubt whether it was intentional.

On the one hand, it will revitalize the domestic economy, and on the other hand, it will disrupt the pace of interest rate cuts in the United States, killing two birds with one stone.

Don’t you want to cut interest rates quickly? Then I won’t let you cut interest rates quickly.

No matter what your opponent wants to do, when you are sure that this is his true intention, the best option is to prevent him from achieving it and disrupt his original plan. There is definitely nothing wrong with doing so.

We are not sure whether this is the policy arrangement, but the results of practice have indeed achieved this effect, and the credit of the US non-farm data has gone from a golden sign to a well-known fake data.

It would be even more outrageous if the policy was not arranged in this way and this effect was an unintentional result.

In theory, the United States should be a strong country in financial warfare, but from this round of financial confrontation, why do I feel that the United States is so weak, and there are huge problems with the timing and scale of the introduction of various policies.

The competition between countries relies on internal strength. It is useless to just rely on data and become a data power.