The interest rate cut has a problem again! I really didn't expect that the conflict in the Middle East could cancel the Fed's interest rate cut. This is simply outrageous!

Sui doubled in two weeks. Will it be the new challenger of Solana? Is it worth buying the dip now?

What are the latest news about Sol, People, BNB and Ethereum? Let’s follow Shuqin to find out.

First, let's talk about the overall market. Some people are confused as to why a Middle East conflict can cause the cryptocurrency market to fall so much. In fact, the problem is not the war. The main thing is that they affected the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This is what the market is worried about. Please see the picture.

WTI crude oil futures have continued to rise due to the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, with the increase exceeding 10%. It should be noted that oil prices are definitely a weight in inflation data. Such a large increase means that the inflation data in October may increase by 0.2% or even more year-on-year.

The Wall Street interest rate market has already reacted very strongly. The probability of a double rate cut next time has dropped from 50% to 29%, so the next time there will most likely be only a 25 basis point rate cut, rather than a 50 basis point cut.

But you have to know that the Fed's interest rate cuts are a major trend. The war can only slightly affect the short-term progress. Its long-term interest rate cut expectations remain unchanged. That is, it will lower the interest rate to 3.25% in mid-next year. A 200 basis point cut in just over half a year is a larger cut than the 150 basis point cut during the 2020 epidemic.

Everyone has seen what the cryptocurrency market has been like in the past 20 years. Against the backdrop of massive global money printing, even pigs can soar to the sky.

And this time it's not just the United States, major economies around the world are all releasing money, for example, the European Union plans to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on the 17th of this month, which will make its cumulative interest rate cut 100 basis points this year. Not to mention China, the recent release of money has caused the market to rise by 20% in a week, which is unheard of.

Therefore, the general environment is very conducive to the formation of a bull market in the cryptocurrency circle, and the negative impact of the war is only a short-term impact. Instead, it is a very good opportunity for you to get on board.

In fact, there is a very famous operation in the U.S. stock market called Buy the Invasion, which means that every callback after the war is an excellent opportunity to buy the bottom.

The whale really did it. This smart money, labeled as the Seven Brothers, bought 28,000 Ethereum yesterday afternoon.

Moreover, this person was particularly cunning. He only bought dozens of items each time and placed hundreds of orders in total, thinking that he could escape Benqin's large-scale monitoring in this way. That was really wishful thinking.

Of course, the whales don’t want to buy all at once, which will directly drive up the price, so they slowly absorb the chips and open their huge mouths to swallow up the desperate chips of retail investors. After all, the Ethereum Prague upgrade will start to be hyped at the end of the year, and ETH will double every time it is upgraded, so I expect Ethereum to reach around 4,000 by the end of the year, and then rise to 8,000 after the upgrade in February next year.

Shuqin knows that some people are very disappointed with the current market situation, but if you compare it with the trends in the past few cycles, you will find that the current Bitcoin is not weaker than the previous rounds of market conditions. Please see the picture.

Bitcoin is still up 366% from its cyclical low of 16,000 in 2022, which is actually similar to the increase in previous cycles. This bull market is mainly due to the Bitcoin ETF at the beginning of the year, which caused BTC to rise earlier than the previous two cycles. Now it has just returned to where it should be.

For the subsequent trend, you can refer to the blue and green bull markets of 2017 and 2021, which started to gain momentum from October. So Shuqin tells you that there will be no surprises this time, whether it is the global money supply just analyzed or the approval of Bitcoin ETF that allows Wall Street to enter the market, these have laid the most solid foundation for the next bull market.

The recent positive factors for various small coins include AVAX's annual summit and hard fork upgrade on the 16th, People's US election on November 5, OM and WLD's mainnet launch in October, and BNB's possible new coin issuance in the near future.

Among them, People should have the largest increase and certainty, while BNB is more stable. It will definitely have new shares, it is just a matter of time.

During the election debate in September, we took advantage of the People's surge and even sold off the highest point on the day of the debate, so People should also have a similar trend before this election.

The same is true for BNB. We can ambush in advance, and then escape the top together on the day when the new coin mining is completed. We can even go short a little and wait for the callback to take it back. I think the winning rate of these operations is very stable. You can also take a look at more real-time operations. Benqin has always opened orders.

Okay, let’s continue.

I see that the on-chain transaction volume is rising abnormally now, and it is even more active than when Bitcoin skyrocketed last week. The transaction volumes of major public chains have increased by 20-30%. So if the surge in Bitcoin and the surge in trading volume on exchanges in the past two weeks were a carnival for retail investors, then the current plunge is a feast for on-chain whales. The turnover is huge, and the chips are being transferred from retail investors to whales.

In addition to the mainstream currencies, Sui is also extremely hot now, and many people want me to talk about it.

His recent popularity is due to the popularity of Tugou coin, which is similar to Solana, but the question is whether his popularity can be sustained? For example, the popularity of Tron and Sun Dog, which were very popular a month ago, gradually faded out of people’s sight within two weeks, so sustainability is what I am more concerned about.

As you can see from the on-chain data we just showed you, Sui’s transaction volume in the past seven days has not increased much, only 14%, and the transaction volume base is far from OP or Arbitrum. Compared with Solana, it is only one-tenth of its transaction volume. However, Sui’s total market value has reached more than 17 billion US dollars, while Sol, which is 10 times larger, is only about 70 billion.

In addition, what I am most worried about is that Sui still has 3 times the current circulation of coins being unlocked, so I am very cautious about this coin, because whether its popularity can be sustained for a long time is still an unknown, but its total market value has reached 17 billion. Look, this is not 1.7 billion, it is 17 billion. Even if the bull market comes, how many times of room does it have? If it is 10 times, then the total market value will be 170 billion, and People only has a market value of 300 million, so you can think about it yourself, whether it would be more stable to deploy other coins.

Overall, I am still very confident about the future trend of the cryptocurrency market, especially with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in early November and the stimulus from the US election, which are both very strong driving forces for the rise.

So everyone should be more patient and wait for the panic of this Middle East conflict to dissipate. The cryptocurrency market will start to rise again. Come on!