Last night, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 254,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 150,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, reaching a new low since June 2024. This strong data undoubtedly gave a shot in the arm to analysts who are worried about the slowdown of the US economy.
Imagine that when everyone is worried that the economy may catch a cold and have a fever, the non-farm data is like a health report telling us that the US economy is not only not catching a cold, but also lifting iron and gaining muscle in the gym. The leisure and hotel industry, healthcare, and government departments have become the main drivers of job growth. It's like saying that although it may be raining and windy outside, the party indoors is in full swing.
But wait, don't rush to open champagne to celebrate. The reaction of the financial market is another matter. Spot gold fell in the short term, the US dollar index soared, US stock futures rose rapidly, and US bond yields also changed significantly. It's like a sudden tornado that blew market expectations and portfolios all over the place.
Bets on the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in November have cooled significantly. Currently, the market believes that there is a 94% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a smaller 25 basis points in November. This is like saying that although the party is lively, the DJ suddenly announces that the music should be slowed down because he is worried that everyone is dancing too crazy.
Overall, this non-farm report is like a wonderful Hollywood blockbuster, full of twists and surprises. It not only changes the market's expectations of the Fed's policy, but also provides new clues to the health of the US economy.
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