Important events for the crypto market on October 4 from the economic calendar. In less than 30 minutes, the crypto market expects increased volatility based on US macroeconomic data:

❗️- 15:30 Kyiv and Moscow time / 17:30 Astana time - Large pool of data on the US labor market for September: Average hourly earnings, Change in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector, Share of the economically active population, Unemployment rate.

- 16:00 Kyiv and Moscow time / 18:00 Astana time - Speech by US Federal Reserve member Williams (a member with “dovish” rhetoric and the right to vote).

Yesterday's US labor market data showed weakness.

- Initial jobless claims: 225K vs. 222K expected and 219K previous.

- Non-manufacturing Employment Index (ISM) (September): 48.1 vs. forecast 50.0 and previous 50.2.

The publication of "weak" macro data today could once again exacerbate fears of a recession. Especially since other macro data released yesterday also indicated a decline in the economy:

- Business activity index (PMI) in the services sector (September): 55.2 with a forecast of 55.4 and a previous reading of 55.7.

- Industrial orders (MoM) (August): -0.2% vs. 0.1% expected and 4.9% previous.

At the same time, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Price Index (September) is 59.4 with a forecast of 56.3 and the previous indicator of 57.3. That is, it is not just that the situation with the labor market is worsening - inflationary factors are also troubling us. And it was precisely to "tame" inflation that the labor market was put under pressure.

Following yesterday's data release, according to #CMEGroup, market expectations for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on November 7 look like this:

- 0% - there will be either a pause or a decrease of 0.25 percentage points.

- 69.5% - there will be a decrease of 0.25 percentage points.

- 30.5% - there will be a decrease of either 0.5 percentage points.

Considering that we are talking about two consecutive reductions by 0.5 percentage points, a third is a lot. Every third market participant assesses the situation as a fire and expects the Fed to put it out.

Let's see how today's macro data will change the situation. But we believe that if the data shows greater weakness in the labor market than expected, risky asset markets will perceive the situation negatively this time.