The latest PCE price index is in line with expectations. Many Federal Reserve officials also said that inflation is declining, and Wall Street investment banks also predicted that inflation will return to the target range early next year.

Suddenly everything seems fine, but this often indicates that there may be a bigger conspiracy behind it.

Especially when something strange happens, we need to pay attention. On October 1, American dock workers began a strike because they refused a 50% pay increase.

50% is not enough to meet the requirement, it is as high as 70%. What does this mean?

This shows that inflation is too severe and not as mild as the data shows.

Currently, prices in the United States are on average more than 40% higher than in 2019.

Two boiled eggs cost 15 RMB, a sandwich costs 100 RMB, and the price of an ordinary fast food meal is close to the 200 RMB mark.

The Big Mac Index in the United States shows that the average price of a Big Mac meal, including a hamburger, French fries and a drink, is as high as US$9.29, and in many places it exceeds US$10, equivalent to RMB 70.

Some people say that prices in the United States are high, but the income level is also much higher than ours.

You might not say that if you knew their purchasing power has returned to the level of 1975. Can you accept our purchasing power returning to 1975?

Therefore, American workers are generally worried that if prices continue to rise, and the wage increase rate in the next few years will not keep up with the price increase, many of them will not be able to pay various taxes and fees, and may even end up on the streets.

Why is inflation still so high even though the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 11 times in a row, bringing the federal interest rate to 5.25%?

The reason is that the inflation in the United States is not only due to the over-issuance of currency, but also has a lot to do with the US trade policy.

The United States has been promoting anti-globalization, decoupling and supply chain severing, launching a trade war and tearing the global supply chain to pieces, and the United States itself has suffered the most serious backlash.

Americans have a lot of dollars in their hands, but they can no longer shop freely around the world. Many times they can only buy expensive things, not cheap things.

This affects not only food and clothing, but everything else. For example, the power company can no longer buy cheap equipment and accessories, so the electricity bill has also increased.

Similar examples are happening in all walks of life.

Of course, excessive money supply is also a very important factor.

The US government is running a huge fiscal deficit, dropping money from helicopters, and providing large-scale industrial subsidies.

Ordinary people are happy to spend a few thousand dollars, but trillions of dollars are printed, and most of them go into the pockets of capitalists, leaving ordinary people with very little.

The US dollar has increased by trillions, and the global supply chain has been broken again, which means that there are more dollars but fewer goods, currency depreciation, and high inflation cannot be stopped at all. Although the CPI and PCE data seem to be easing, in fact, prices in the United States are still rising higher and higher.

The Federal Reserve had no choice but to raise interest rates violently in an attempt to recover dollars, but doing so caused Americans' debt interest to continue to rise and the cost of living to further increase. At the same time, the economy was hit, the output of the real economy decreased, and supply was further reduced.

At the same time, it also caused the unemployment rate to rise.

What we need to be most vigilant about now is not the strike in the United States, but the actual inflation situation in the United States. If prices are getting higher and higher, and inflation is actually still running at a high level, then the Federal Reserve may stop cutting interest rates at any time, or even reverse the interest rate hike.

This is a huge black swan for global finance, but this may just be the Federal Reserve's advance planning.

The Fed will suddenly break the market's expectations of a rate cut, and may even raise interest rates in the opposite direction. The Fed will successfully push the US dollar index up rapidly, so we must be very careful. #加密市场急跌 #伊朗导弹袭击以色列 #9月小非农数据高于预期 #美国8月核心PCE创4月以来新高 #非农就业数据即将公布