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Macro News

1. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on October 3rd local time that since the night of the 2nd, the Russian air defense system has shot down a total of 113 Ukrainian drones in Belgorod, Voronezh, Kursk, Bryansk and other regions. According to the governor of Belgorod, the Ukrainian attack has killed four local residents and injured 24 people. There is no response from Ukraine at present.

2. At 8 a.m. local time on October 3, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement saying that the Houthi armed forces used multiple drones to successfully strike targets in the Israeli city of Tel Aviv. The statement said that the Houthi armed forces will continue to take action until Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon end.

3. According to the Lebanese news on October 3rd local time, in the early morning of that day, the Israeli army launched air strikes on many places in Lebanon. Among them, the Israeli army's air strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon, lasted until about 4 am, with the number of attacks reaching 17. The news also stated that in southern Lebanon, the Israeli army carried out continuous air strikes or artillery bombardments on many places such as Khiam, Kfar Kila, and Magayom Plain.

4. According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of this year, the import and export of my country's western region was 2.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, 4.1 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of my country's foreign trade in the same period.

5. According to CNN, two sources said on Thursday that striking members of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) will return to work at the port on Friday because the union and management groups representing shipping companies, terminal operators and port authorities have reached a preliminary agreement on wages. Sources said that no final agreement has been reached on the full contract. But one source said that the two sides have agreed to extend the contract, which expires on Friday, to January 15 next year and allow union members to return to work until the final details are worked out and the agreement is approved by rank-and-file employees.

6. On October 3, local time, Al Jazeera quoted an Iranian source as saying that the Iranian government told the United States through Qatar that Iran's unilateral self-restraint has ended. In the message delivered to the United States, Iran stated that any attack by Israel against Iran would be met with "unconventional responses", including Iran's attack on Israeli infrastructure. Iran also stressed that it does not want a regional war to break out.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices rose across the board, with the November contract of U.S. crude up 5.15% to $73.71 per barrel, and the December contract of Brent crude up 5.39% to $77.88 per barrel.

2. COMEX gold futures closed up 0.23% at $2,675.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed up 1.17% at $32.295 per ounce.

3. All base metals in London closed lower, with LME copper futures down 1.89% to $9,893.5/ton, LME zinc futures down 1.8% to $3,116.5/ton, LME nickel futures down 1.67% to $17,850/ton, LME aluminum futures down 1.53% to $2,637.5/ton, LME tin futures down 0.27% to $33,800/ton and LME lead futures down 0.28% to $2,145/ton.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.88% to 1046.75 cents per bushel; corn futures down 1.04% to 428 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 1.83% to 604 cents per bushel.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, on October 3, the ex-factory price of Tangshan Qian'anpu square billet resources including tax increased by 40 yuan/ton to 3,390 yuan/ton.

2. According to the Yichang Housing Provident Fund Center, starting from October 8, Yichang City will increase the maximum amount of housing provident fund loans from 600,000 yuan to 800,000 yuan. At the same time, a policy of increasing the loan amount for talents and families with multiple children will be introduced. The first home loan support policy will be optimized, and the requirements of linking with the deposit time coefficient and account balance will be cancelled. The policy of "recognizing housing but not first loan" will be implemented, and the recognition will be based only on the actual number of housing units.

3. The Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced on the 3rd that for Beijing-based families with two or more children purchasing houses, the amount of housing provident fund loans available will increase by 400,000 yuan, with a maximum loan amount of 1.6 million yuan, to better meet residents' rigid housing needs and diversified improvement housing needs.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said on Thursday that it welcomes the proposal to postpone the implementation of the EU Zero Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) by 12 months. In a statement, MPOC said that postponing the implementation of the law is a wise decision to ensure that the supply chain has time to prepare. The EU Zero Deforestation Regulation was originally scheduled to take effect on December 30.

2. Indonesia said on Thursday that the European Commission's intention to postpone the implementation of the EU Zero Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is a positive step, but the more pressing issue is the content of the new rules, not the timetable. Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economics Airlangga Hartarto said the EU should cancel the national benchmark test in the EUDR. "It's not about extension, it's about implementing the rules." He added that it would be better to have a two-year extension instead of 12 months.

3. Asian rice prices fell the most in more than 16 years as supply concerns eased after India eased some export restrictions. Data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association showed that Thai white rice prices plunged about 11% to $509 a tonne on Wednesday. This was the biggest drop in data compiled since May 2008.

4. Traders said that India's edible oil imports in September fell 31% from the previous month to 1.06 million tons, the lowest level in seven months. Palm oil imports in September fell 34% to 530,000 tons, the lowest level in six months. Soybean oil imports in September fell 15% from the previous month to 388,000 tons. Sunflower oil imports in September fell 49% from the previous month to 145,000 tons, the lowest level in ten months.

5. Data released by Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that as of the week of October 2, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 79, compared with 73 the previous week. The amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at the port was 3.3927 million tons, compared with 3.2055 million tons the previous week. Of the total amount of sugar waiting to be exported that week, the amount of high-grade raw sugar (VHP) was 3.2377 million tons.

6. The latest data from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange shows that as of October 2, Argentina's corn planting progress reached 13.7%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points compared with last week, mainly concentrated in Entre Rios Province, eastern Santa Fe Province and central Buenos Aires Province, where there is still surface moisture. The planted area is about 180,000 hectares less than the same period last year.

7. According to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of September 27, there were 61,437 unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton on-call, a decrease of 1,580 lots from the previous month; there were 83,832 unpriced buy orders, a decrease of 2,379 lots from the previous month; the number of unpriced sell orders for the ON-Call contract for the ICE cotton futures market in 2024/25 (August to July of the following year) was 57,363 lots, a decrease of 1,844 lots from the previous month.

8. The latest USDA drought report shows that as of the week of October 1, about 26% of the soybean planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 30% in the previous week and 58% in the same period last year. About 27% of the corn planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 25% in the previous week and 59% in the same period last year. About 25% of the cotton planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 32% in the previous week and 43% in the same period last year.

9. U.S. Department of Agriculture: As of the week of September 26, U.S. net export sales of soybeans in 2024/2025 were 1.444 million tons, compared with 1.575 million tons in the previous week; net sales of soybeans in 2025/2026 were 0.1 million tons, compared with 0 million tons in the previous week; U.S. net sales of soybeans to China in 2024/2025 were 726,000 tons, compared with 870,000 tons in the previous week; net sales of soybeans to China in 2025/2026 were 0 million tons, compared with 0 million tons in the previous week.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) said that Iran will set the official selling price of light crude oil for the Asian market in October at a premium of $1.70 per barrel over the average price of Oman/Dubai crude oil, lower than the premium of $2.35 per barrel in September. In addition, Iran will set the official selling price of heavy crude oil for the Asian market in October at a discount of $0.65 per barrel, compared with a premium of $0.15 per barrel in September.

2. Gazprom said it would continue to supply natural gas to Europe through Ukraine, with the volume reaching 42.4 million cubic meters on Thursday.

3. Enterprise Singapore (ESG): Singapore fuel oil inventories rose by 1.226 million barrels to a two-week high of 16.758 million barrels in the week ended October 2. Singapore middle distillate inventories rose by 935,000 barrels to a three-week high of 10.742 million barrels. Singapore light distillate inventories rose by 851,000 barrels to a four-week high of 15.314 million barrels.

4. EIA Natural Gas Report: As of the week ending September 27, total U.S. natural gas inventories were 3,547 billion cubic feet, an increase of 55 billion cubic feet from the previous week and 127 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. At the same time, it was 190 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average, an increase of 5.7%.

5. Kazakhstan's crude oil production in September increased by 10% from August, exceeding the OPEC+ quota, according to Reuters calculations and sources.

6. Libya's oil minister said Libya will resume oil production from Thursday, a move that could restore hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil per day to the global market. Libyan media reported on Thursday that the eastern Libyan government, which initially ordered a halt to production, has lifted the "force majeure" order, allowing all oil fields and export terminals to resume operations.

Metal Hot News

1. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States rose slightly last week, but Hurricane Helene ravaged the southeastern United States, as well as strikes at Boeing and ports, which may distort the outlook for the job market in the short term. The data released showed that the number of initial jobless claims increased by 6,000 last week to 225,000 after seasonal adjustments. The number of initial jobless claims is consistent with the stable level of the job market, which is supported by the low unemployment rate.

2. Fed's Goolsbee: The Fed has largely reduced inflation; the economy has not been affected by the dock strike; the latest inflation data has reached the Fed's target; the labor market is at full employment. Whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points is not as important as significantly reducing interest rates in the next 12 months to reach a neutral rate; interest rates need to fall a lot in the next 12 months.

Today's important futures data and events at a glance

1. At 16:00 on October 4, the global Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index for September was released. Previously, the global FAO Food Price Index for August averaged 120.7 points, a slight decrease from the revised index in July. Compared with historical levels, the food price index in August fell by 1.1% compared with the same period last year. Pay attention to how the data will change in September.

2. At 20:30 on October 4, the US September seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate were released. Previously, the US August seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls increased by 142,000, which was lower than market expectations, but the largest increase since June this year. Pay attention to the changes in the September data, which may affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

3. October 4th, to be determined, Malaysia's MPOA palm oil production forecast for September 1-30. Previously, according to data released by the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), Malaysia's palm oil production forecast for September 1-20 was reduced by 0.97%. Due to the current weather conditions, the market is concerned about the stagnation or even decline of Malaysia's palm oil production.

Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data