The US economic data is about to be released. If the unemployment rate in September remains at 4.2 or lower, and the non-agricultural data is positive, it is indeed impossible to explain why the US lowered the interest rate by 50 basis points in advance. Powell also said that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points twice in the future. I always know that the United States is a high-level country with long-term planning and strategic foresight. Although it is not clear now, he will find the answer in the future. From the data, the United States is completing the soft road goal of reducing inflation without causing a sharp increase in unemployment. On the one hand, the trend of inflation data steadily approaching 2 has become a reason to support the interest rate cut. At the same time, if the employment data and non-agricultural data have a strong recovery, there is no reason to support the interest rate cut. This situation makes the next trend more and more complicated. For the complex situation, we should remain highly vigilant!

Recently, a complex phenomenon has also appeared. The interest rate cut will cause the US dollar to fall, and the expectation of the interest rate cut will cause the US dollar to continue to fall. It was previously predicted that it would fall to 96-98. Recently, it has not only not fallen, but has risen to 103. At the same time, the price of gold has fallen back and the price of oil has rebounded. It is a relatively certain event that oil will rise in the future. However, the depreciation of the US dollar is a general trend. The decline of the US dollar in the interest rate cut cycle can further promote the consolidation of the US dollar's hegemony and stimulate foreign trade.

The United States is talking about cutting interest rates, while tightening the balance sheet, combined with the appreciation of the US dollar and the positive performance of economic data, which are all going against the grain. The more you don't understand, the more you should be vigilant. It's better to watch than to move! There is a saying that good things must be abnormal!