October 3, 2024

The holiday is going on, but the largest strike in nearly 50 years is happening on the other side of the ocean, causing the port that handles half of the US maritime trade to shut down. It is reported that the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), which represents 45,000 port workers, and the United States Maritime Union (USMX), which represents the employer, failed to reach an agreement on a new round of six-year labor contract negotiations, leading to the strike. In fact, USMX has compromised and is willing to increase wages by 50%, and dock workers will continue to be the highest-paid blue-collar workers. However, the ILA disagrees with the most critical point, which is to require the terminal to cancel related automation projects.

Automation will eventually replace some manual labor, which will eventually affect the core rights of workers, but this is also the general trend, so the two sides did not reach an agreement. This strike will not only cause billions of dollars in economic losses to the United States every day, but will also directly affect the rhythm of the global supply chain. If it cannot be resolved in a short period of time, it may cause employment problems and even inflation. This matter still needs to be taken seriously. After all, it is the largest strike in 50 years, and no one knows the possible impact.

In addition, the first major strike of the ILA worries me the most. Is this a signal that a black swan is about to happen? In the past, the Fed has turned to interest rate cuts, which means that the economy has to land, and more often it is a hard landing, which either triggers economic crises in other economies or economic problems in the country. It is worth noting that the US stock market has been at a high level. Just like my answer, once there is a black swan event that causes a sharp drop in the US stock market, Pie will certainly not be immune. It is just a matter of how much it will fall.

In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin is testing the support of 60,000. The pressure of 65,000 points has not been broken, which means that the downward trend has not stopped, so I did not actively build positions last night. In the absence of fundamental benefits (mainly funds and active on-chain conditions), any unfavorable factors will become the direct cause of the market's decline. This situation may still occur in the short term. Therefore, I will wait for 1-2 days for the positions sold at 65,000. If it can directly reach 55,000, it will be an ideal range for building positions.

Thank you for your attention and likes.