Market Analysis – The Black Swan of the Iraq War reappears, US stocks and cryptocurrencies plummet
Affected by Iran's launch of hundreds of missiles in retaliation against Israel yesterday evening, Taiwan stocks, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies simultaneously fell sharply. BTC also fell by 3.98% yesterday, with the largest drop from the high of $66,000 at the end of September to about 8.7%. , the largest decline in the past month, and other altcoins also experienced declines of more than 5%. This wave of black swans has undoubtedly caused great harm to the market.
After this wave of decline, the famous fear and greed indicator immediately changed from greed to fear, which shows that the market is worried about the market outlook. Especially after the US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by two points in September and Japan announced to maintain interest rates, the market can be said to be open. Celebrating the market, whether it is BTC, ETH spot ETFs or stablecoin issuance, they are moving in an optimistic direction. However, this wave of war between Israel and Iraq has made the market worry about whether the scale of the subsequent war will continue to expand. When yesterday's incident occurred, we judged that Some positions will also be closed urgently to prevent excessive losses caused by uncontrollable subsequent events. The entry will be re-evaluated after the follow-up of the event is more certain.
Regarding the price trend of BTC, the short-term decline stopped in the yellow support range of US$60,000 to US$62,000. This position is more critical. The main reason is that from the perspective of the overall structure, it has risen since the bottom in September. Breaking through this range can be defined as the second wave of rise. , at present, as long as the price can stabilize above this range, the bullish structure has not been destroyed, and it will continue to be bullish in the future, but as long as the price falls below this range, it is likely to mean that this wave of interest rate cuts is over. At present, the short-term is an opportunity to buy low. BTC has oversold. Many altcoins have also been aggressive in this wave, and their prices have fallen to support positions. For example, CRV, IOTA, and TIA have all received support in the short-term, which you can refer to.
China is letting off steam, and A-share prices are rising sharply, attracting capital outflows from the currency circle.
China released a series of measures to stimulate the market last week, causing the Chinese stock market to experience its largest single-day rise in 16 years on September 30. A-shares have accumulated an increase of about 20% so far. As the market turns to a bull market, Chinese stock market investors are laughing and a large number of investors are rushing to invest in A-shares.
On the other hand, the currency circle is relatively bleak. In the past few days, there should even be a lot of talk about the return of A-shares in major currency circles. From the figure below, the negative premium of RMB to USDT over the counter can also be seen. USDT The demand is gradually decreasing and has now reached a long-term relative low. Chinese investors have always played an important role in the currency circle. If A-shares continue to rise, it will undoubtedly have a blood-sucking effect on the currency circle.
Key U.S. data
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released the September manufacturing PMI on October 1, maintaining August's 47.2, shrinking for six consecutive months and lower than market expectations of 47.5, indicating that demand continues to be weak, output declines, and the manufacturing industry continues to be weak. , adding some variables to the prospect of a soft landing.
In addition, the United States will release services PMI (October 3) and September labor market data (October 4) this week. On the job market front, analysts expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 144,000, up slightly from 142,000 in August, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.
Labor market data is a key reference data for the Federal Reserve to measure economic conditions. Deutsche Bank economists pointed out in the latest research report: "While the overall data is important, the upcoming employment data will provide greater confidence for the Fed to We believe the weak trend is stabilizing." Although Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has declared this week that large interest rate cuts will not be the norm, and has predicted that there is a high probability of a 1-cent rate cut in each of the next two months, according to FedWatch data, the market still does not seem to rule out a 2-cent rate cut in November. possibility.
Labor market data will play a key role in this regard. If the data is not as good as expected, it will intensify the market's concerns about an economic recession and force the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates.
Changes in currency market structure
Excluding macroeconomic and geopolitical risk factors, the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is very different from the past.
In the current market environment, targets with rising momentum or that can attract investors to buy mostly revolve around "head projects with sound ecosystems" and "meme coins that grasp topic trends." There may be more than 80% of altcoins in the entire market that are not in these two categories. These altcoins lack narrative and profitability and can only follow the market trend.
Therefore, investors must be more cautious than before when selecting targets and avoid stagnating capital for a long time on altcoins that lack momentum. If you do not have the ability to judge the potential of the project, it is better to abandon altcoins and concentrate capital on leading projects such as BTC, ETH, SOL, SUI, etc., or simply withdraw funds and invest in the embrace of the Chinese stock market and wait for the market to find its narrative direction again.
Binance Copying Analysis
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The yields of "GTRadar - BULL", "GTRadar - Balance" and "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain OKX" in the past 7 days are -20.97%, -7.96% and -8.42% respectively, and the yields in the past 30 days are - 17.75%, -8.51% and -4%.
In the early morning of 10/1, Iran launched an attack on Israel, causing all risky assets to plummet. Because this wave of investment groups were in the early stages of the bull market, the overall proportion of positions was relatively large. Although some positions were urgently sold out at the moment of the plunge, the sudden plunge still resulted in the loss of positions. Substantial losses.
Currently, "GTRadar – BULL" holds a net long position of 20%, mainly in BTC and ETH.
Currently "GTRadar - Balanced" holds a net long position of about 10%.
Currently, "GTRadar - Potential Public Chain" holds about 10% of its net long positions, mainly ETH and SOL.
The long-term returns of a follower who often changes his investment portfolio are not as good as those of a follower who continues to follow a single group. Don’t end the follower easily just because of a short-term retracement. Judging from the curve, the retracement is a good time to start following. In and out, on the contrary, the yield rate will be significantly reduced.
Hot news
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Grayscale update TOP20 watch list: optimistic about SUI, TAO, OP, HNT and other six currencies!
According to asset management firm Grayscale’s Q4 2024 Insights report released yesterday, the firm assessed Ethereum’s year-to-date performance and updated its research arm’s top 20 watch list.
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After being released from prison, Changpeng Zhao promised to continue investing in blockchain and other technology fields and develop Giggle Academy
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The Financial Supervisory Commission opens the possibility of entrusting investment in overseas virtual asset ETFs! But only for “professional investors”
According to the latest announcement, the Financial Supervisory Commission has approved the opening of multiple entrustment investments in foreign virtual asset ETFs. However, considering the relatively high investment risks of virtual asset ETFs, and referring to the recommendations of the trade association, initially only "professional investors" are allowed to invest in multiple entrustment methods. Foreign virtual asset ETFs will be observed and reviewed on a rolling basis in the future.
Coinbase report: Bitcoin set for strong fourth quarter, driven by U.S. interest rate cuts and Chinese stimulus policies
The institutional arm of the U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase emphasized its optimistic expectations for the cryptocurrency market in a report released last week, believing that driving factors such as U.S. interest rate cut expectations and China's monetary stimulus policy may boost Bitcoin (Bitcoin) in 2024. Season 4 performance. Additionally, the exchange also mentioned that Ethereum’s on-chain activity is growing.
South Korea's $30 trillion pension fund clarifies it doesn't own Coinbase, MicroStrategy stocks because of cryptocurrencies
South Korea's private pension fund "National Pension Service" (NPS), with an asset management scale of 1,147 trillion won (approximately NT$30 trillion), invested in the Coinbase exchange and holds a large amount of Bitcoin IT enterprise micro-strategy related to cryptocurrency of stocks. In response, the group emphasized to members of Congress that the move was "not for the purpose of investing in virtual assets" and stated that "cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are not investment targets." The company explained that these stocks were included in the portfolio only because they were included in the benchmark index.
Social media calls for SOL to watch 1,000 mg! But can the selling pressure of 100 million magnesium per day be able to withstand it?
Many institutions and KOLs will publicly share their personal favorite currencies and target prices on social platforms. Solana, as the smart contract public chain second only to Ethereum, naturally has many supporters and bidders, most of whom share target prices ranging from US$300 to US$1,000. However, KOL Evanss6 analyzed the future release of SOL tokens and found that at such a target price, future daily emissions may reach US$35.6 million to US$120 million.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell predicts that interest rates will be cut by 50 basis points before the end of the year. Major cuts will not be repeated again.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at a conference hosted by the National Association for Business Economics on October 1 that the U.S. labor market remains solid despite a gradual slowdown in inflation. He also hinted that there may not be a significant rate cut this month at the Fed's next two meetings.
The Financial Supervisory Commission has announced that the "VASP registration system" is about to be implemented, and all those who have completed the legal compliance statement will cancel the practice!
According to the latest announcement issued by the Financial Supervisory Commission, the regulatory agency previewed the draft specifications and requirements for the "Money Laundering Prevention Registration Measures for Enterprises or Personnel Providing Virtual Asset Services", as well as the "Prevention of Money Laundering and Combating Financing Terrorism for Virtual Currency Platforms and Trading Business Enterprises". Amendments and implementation details of relevant laws and regulations.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice. All data comes from GT Radar official website announcements. Each user may have slight differences due to different entry and exit prices, and past performance does not represent future performance!
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