9.30 Accurate market analysis
Hello, brothers, National Day is coming
At 5 am last night, the market began to pull back. What is the reason?
Analysis of core factors:
In Japan: Shigeru Ishiba, a hawkish figure, was unexpectedly elected as the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. This leader advocated an interest rate hike, which led to a surge in A-shares, while the Japanese stock market suffered a "Black Monday" with a fierce sell-off and a 5% plunge. Japan's interest rate hike expectations: If Japan raises interest rates significantly, its cryptocurrency investors may panic sell like stock market investors.
Macroeconomic background:
PCE data cooling: The PCE data released last week continued to show a cooling trend, and the expectation of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve still has a slight upper hand. Comparison of US and Japanese policies: Although Japan's interest rate hike has a certain impact on the market, compared with the positive impact of the US interest rate cut, the overall positive impact is still greater than the negative impact.
Major trend of cryptocurrency:
In the new round of quantitative easing cycle in the world, the general trend of cryptocurrency is undoubtedly rising. But in this process, it is inevitable to encounter some twists and turns. Other influencing factors: Mentougou's last wave of $BTC selling pressure and war conflicts (such as Hezbollah leaders were almost wiped out by Israel, Israel is preparing to launch a ground attack on Lebanon, which may trigger a larger-scale war) are all small negatives for the currency circle.
Market positive signals:
China's attitude: Zhu Guangyao, former vice finance minister of China, called for attention to the development of cryptocurrency research. International investment: 34% of professional investors in London have invested or plan to invest in digital assets, showing that more and more wealthy people are pouring into this industry.
Investment advice:
Looking at the present in half a year, it is likely to be the bottom of the market. Many altcoins have not yet started to rise. Therefore, it is recommended to maintain a 70% position and hold it patiently without paying too much attention to short-term fluctuations.
In a complex and changing market environment, keeping a calm analysis and grasping the long-term trend are the keys to steady investment. I wish you all a happy National Day and a smooth investment!
