Analysis: Ethereum staking yields may exceed US interest rates in the next year, pushing up ETH prices

Ethereum staking returns are expected to exceed US interest rates in the next year, a shift that could boost Ethereum prices as investors seek higher returns. The spread between Ethereum's composite staking rate and the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) has been negative since mid-2023. But according to crypto trading and institutional brokerage FalconX, the spread is expected to enter positive territory by mid-2025, creating a "double-whammy effect" that will drive up ETH prices.

FalconX pointed out in its investor report that the Fed's recent decision to cut interest rates and expectations of future rate cuts will reduce the yields of traditional assets such as US Treasuries and narrow the spread with Ethereum staking. Currently, Ethereum staking yields are about 3.2%. In addition, as Ethereum blockchain activity increases, transaction fees have climbed to a nearly two-month high, further boosting staking returns.

FalconX believes that the combination of falling US interest rates and rising Ethereum yields will turn the spread positive in the next two quarters, enhancing Ethereum's competitiveness. However, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said that institutional investors may prefer to obtain pledge income through regulated products such as ETFs, and demand may be affected by SEC approval. Although some mature asset management companies and private wealth companies may invest directly, the demand for direct investment by traditional institutions may develop slowly. #美联储11月降息预期升温 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 #BTC走势预测