Hot topics of Master Chat:
Today, I wrote an essay and made a bold deduction that in the next year, Bitcoin and the Fed’s interest rate cut rhythm may resonate at the same frequency.
The specific performance is: 1. The Federal Reserve continues to cut interest rates until the middle of next year or the third quarter. 2. Bitcoin breaks through the previous high in October or November, starting the main upward trend, and reaches the peak of this cycle in the third quarter of next year.
First, let’s look at the pace of the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Now, Fed members have made it clear that the current interest rate level is far higher than the neutral interest rate, so they will take small steps and gradually cut interest rates without disturbing the market.
Until it gets close to what they believe to be the neutral interest rate level, and then they stop to observe the economic data. Based on the current pace, this will most likely be sometime in the middle of next year or the third quarter. At least the market will expect a pause in interest rate cuts at this time.
Speaking of Bitcoin, we have to mention the magical 4-year cycle of Bitcoin. According to this cycle theory, the peak of this cycle of Bitcoin will happen in the second half of next year.
Therefore, based on the above, it is very likely that Bitcoin will resonate with the Fed's rate cut rhythm. Maybe this time next year will be the peak of Bitcoin. I look forward to its performance in the future. This is a record made by Master. I will review this article in a year to help improve myself!
Master looks at the trend:
Bitcoin attempted a trend reversal yesterday, but encountered high resistance after breaking the trend and formed a large black candlestick.
In addition, after reaching 66K, the current large negative line appeared due to profit-taking selling in the adjustment range.
Whenever a long black candlestick is formed, it indicates that selling pressure is greater, so the rebound requires greater buying support, so it may take some time before the next rise.
At present, the probability of falling again after the technical rebound is relatively high. If no lower shadow is formed on the K-line, a continuous downward trend may occur.
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 65200
Second resistance level: 65800
When the technology rebounds, it may rebound to the first resistance level in the short term. However, if there is no trading volume before rebounding to the first resistance level, it may adjust again in the 64.8~64.9K range.
The current psychological support line of 65K has been lost, so the master changed 65K to strong resistance to deal with it.
Support level reference:
First support level: 64350
Second support level: 63700
The current important support level in the short term is near the previous high point support, which is 64.3K, so a technical rebound can also be expected. If 64K is set as the support level, this will be a more ideal profit and loss ratio range.
If the price of the currency falls below 64.3K and the 60-day moving average, it may drop to the 63K range. It is recommended to set support lines in stages and trade gradually.
Today's trading suggestions:
In today's trading, due to the formation of a large black candlestick, we need to be alert to further declines, while we can try to grasp the technical rebound.
We expect the big black candlestick to form a lower shadow, and we can set the psychological support line to 64K. We are optimistic about the entry point with a suitable profit and loss ratio, and we can consider going long.
9.30 Master's short-term pre-buried order:
Long entry reference: 63700-64200 range, long in batches, defense 500 points, target 65200-65800
Reference for short entry: short in batches between 65200-65700, defense 500 points, target 64350-63700
