Today is Monday, September 30, 2024. In the world of Bitcoin, investors are always looking for the best time to enter the market. It has always been believed that mid-to-late September is a good time to buy the bottom. Why is this?
From the historical data of Bitcoin, Bitcoin has often performed well in the fourth quarter of each year in the past few years. Taking the monthly return rate as an example, the average increase of Bitcoin in October in the past few years has reached about 20%, which is a relatively outstanding performance among all months. At the same time, the fourth quarter is also one of the quarters with the highest return rate of Bitcoin.
In September this year, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 20 basis points. In addition, the fourth quarter also has a major event, the US presidential election. Currently, both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are supportive of the development of cryptocurrencies. With the support of these two factors, Bitcoin is expected to break new heights in the fourth quarter.
Looking back at the recent market, the trend of Bitcoin in July and August can be described as ups and downs. In July, Bitcoin fell from a high of 71,000 to 53,000, and then plummeted to 52,000 on July 5. However, from July 5 to July 25, Bitcoin rebounded for 20 days, from 52,000 to 67,500. This rebound was mainly driven by the Bitcoin Conference, Trump's speech, and the slogan of Bitcoin as the reserve currency of the United States. In the end, Bitcoin reached a high of 71,000 under the stimulation of Trump's speech.
In August, Bitcoin plummeted from a high of 71,000 to 48,000, and then began to rebound around August 23. The surge on August 24 pushed Bitcoin to 64,000. The plunge on August 5 hit a lower needle at 48,000, and the surge on August 24 hit an upper needle at 64,000. The bottom and top of this month are basically determined, with a large range of about $16,000 in the middle. The general rule of the anniversary of the plunge is to oscillate and rebound for 15-20 days, and August 23 and 24 are the annual meeting of the global central bank, the Jackson Hole meeting, which is held once a year and is an important financial event. Powell's loosening of interest rate cuts at this meeting further promoted the rebound of Bitcoin.
The decline in August has ended, and the rebound is almost over. There are two possible scenarios next:
No black swan scenario: After the rebound from 48,000 to 64,000, Bitcoin may have a correction. It rebounded by 16,000 US dollars in more than 20 days, and the correction was about 7,000 to 8,000 US dollars, and it fell back to 57,000 to 58,000. If there is no black swan event in September, Bitcoin is expected to rise again from 58,000 to a high of 77,000, and may usher in a big surge in October.
There is a black swan scenario: Currently, the number of personal debt defaults and unemployment in the United States is increasing. Although inflation has been controlled to a certain extent, the unemployment rate is gradually worsening. If the unemployment rate continues to worsen, it may trigger an economic recession or even an economic crisis. Once a black swan event occurs, Bitcoin may fall sharply. Referring to the performance of domestic assets in difficult economic times, Bitcoin may fall by 30% - 50%. If the suspected black swan on August 5 has been rehearsed, then a real black swan event may cause Bitcoin to fall by 40%. Assuming that Bitcoin encounters a black swan after a callback to 57,000-58,000, then Bitcoin may fall to 37,000, and a situation similar to 312 will occur again. But after the black swan event, with the Fed's interest rate cut to save the market, Bitcoin is expected to pull back to a new high and start a 100% doubling market. #BTC☀ #BNB金鏟子 #BTC突破7万大关 #BTC走势预测 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BTC
