on Monday
The "price war" caused the dealers' capital chain to break, and the China Automobile Dealers Association submitted an emergency report to the government departments
The official microblog of the China Automobile Dealers Association stated that in recent times, the association has received feedback from a large number of member companies that the drastic changes in the automobile market caused by factors such as the ongoing "price war" have caused automobile dealers to be stuck in a quagmire and face the prominent problem of extremely tight liquidity. The association immediately carried out extensive research and analysis to fully reflect the current financial difficulties and closure risks faced by automobile dealers as much as possible. Recently, the association also formally submitted to the relevant government departments an "Emergency Report on the Current Financial Difficulties and Closure Risks Faced by Automobile Dealers", analyzing the current problems faced by automobile dealers due to the tight capital chain and the sharp increase in the risk of closure, and proposing relevant policy recommendations, timely reflecting the real problems of automobile dealers, and providing effective basis for government decision-making. The "Report" pointed out that at present, automobile dealers are experiencing large-scale losses in new car sales, and there is a general situation of cash flow deficit operation and increased risk of capital chain rupture, and it is difficult to get rid of the dilemma of survival. There are two major problems at this stage: First, the dual pressure of sluggish consumption and wholesale volume from manufacturers has caused dealers to maintain high inventories. In order to reduce capital pressure and financing costs, dealers are forced to sell at low prices to survive; second, the "price war" has caused a serious inversion between purchase and sales. The more dealers sell, the more they lose. At the same time, they are facing the pressure of difficulties in fulfilling financing contracts. Dealers are facing a cut-off in operating funds and a sharp increase in the risk of a broken capital chain. At present, the time for dealers to maintain their existing working capital has been compressed to the limit. According to relevant data analysis by experts from the association, from January to August this year, the "price war" has caused a cumulative loss of 138 billion yuan in the overall retail of the new car market, which has had a significant impact on the healthy development of the industry.
Malaysia's Plantation Industries Minister has submitted a proposal to revise the palm oil windfall tax to the Ministry of Finance
The proposal to revise the windfall tax for the palm oil industry was submitted to the Finance Ministry last week, the Plantation Industries Minister said. The Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister said his ministry was currently awaiting a response and decision from the Finance Ministry, although details of the proposal were not given. Malaysia, the world's second-largest palm oil exporter, imposes a 3% windfall tax on palm oil priced above 3,000 ringgit ($714.29) a tonne in Peninsular Malaysia and 3,500 ringgit a tonne in Sabah and Sarawak, the country's top palm oil producing states. In November last year, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association called on the government to review the windfall tax, raise the profit threshold level for levy and reduce the 3% tax rate for growers in Sabah and Sarawak back to the previous 1.5%.
Pan Gongsheng attended the Second China-Portuguese-speaking Countries Central Banks and Financiers Conference and delivered a speech
On September 23, 2024, the Second China-Portuguese-speaking Countries Central Banks and Financiers Conference was held in the Macao Special Administrative Region. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, attended the meeting and delivered a speech. Pan Gongsheng said that China's economy is growing steadily, and the People's Bank of China will continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance, increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and improve the precision of monetary policy regulation to create a good monetary and financial environment for China's stable economic growth and high-quality development. Macao has close ties with Portuguese-speaking countries. The People's Bank of China will continue to support Macao in leveraging its unique advantages and bridge role, building a financial cooperation platform between China and Portuguese-speaking countries, deepening cooperation in various fields, and achieving mutual benefit and win-win results. The governors of the central banks of the participating Portuguese-speaking countries exchanged views on topics such as financial cooperation between China and Portuguese-speaking countries, the role of central banks in supporting economic development and financial stability, and financial technology. (People's Bank of China)
The People's Bank of China restarted the 14-day reverse repo and lowered the winning rate to 1.85%
The People's Bank of China: On September 23, it conducted a 14-day reverse repo operation of 74.5 billion yuan, with a winning rate of 1.85%, compared with 1.95% previously. On September 23, it conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 160.1 billion yuan, with a winning rate of 1.70%, the same as before.
National Energy Administration: As of the end of August, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity increased by 14.0% year-on-year
The National Energy Administration released the national power industry statistics from January to August. As of the end of August, the total installed capacity of power generation in China was about 3.13 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 750 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.8%; the installed capacity of wind power generation was about 470 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%.
Tuesday
The two departments: The national cultivated land reserve shall not be less than 1.865 billion mu, and the permanent basic farmland protection area shall not be less than 1.546 billion mu.
The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on strengthening the protection of cultivated land, improving the quality of cultivated land, and improving the balance between occupation and compensation, implementing the cultivated land and permanent basic farmland protection tasks specified in the new round of national land space planning, with the national cultivated land reserve of no less than 1.865 billion mu and the permanent basic farmland protection area of no less than 1.546 billion mu. (Xinhua News Agency)
Pan Gongsheng: The central bank's funding support ratio for affordable housing refinancing has been increased from 60% to 100%.
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that the central bank will optimize the policy of refinancing for affordable housing. The proportion of central bank funds in the previously created 300 billion yuan of affordable housing refinancing will be increased from 60% to 100%, enhancing market-oriented incentives for banks and acquisition entities. (Securities Times)
The central bank announced a rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on the 24th that the deposit reserve ratio and policy interest rate would be reduced. In the near future, the reserve ratio will be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, releasing 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, and it may be reduced by another 0.25-0.5 percentage points before the end of the year. At the same time, the central bank's policy interest rate will be reduced, and the seven-day reverse repurchase operation interest rate will be reduced by 0.2 percentage points, guiding the loan market benchmark rate (LPR) to decline simultaneously. It is expected that this interest rate cut will lead to a 0.3 percentage point reduction in the MLF, and it is expected that the LPR and deposit interest rates will also decline by 0.2-0.25 percentage points, which will remain neutral to the bank's net interest margin overall.
Wu Qing: Six measures to promote mergers, acquisitions and restructuring will be issued
Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said that the CSRC will issue opinions on promoting the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market and six measures to promote mergers and acquisitions. It will highlight the protection of the legitimate rights and interests of small and medium-sized investors, resolutely crack down on illegal and irregular behaviors such as financial fraud and market manipulation, and strive to implement more exemplary cases in representative litigation and advance compensation.
Li Yunze: With the gradual resolution and mitigation of the three risks of real estate, local debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions, financial risks are steadily converging.
The State Council Information Office held a press conference on September 24 to introduce the relevant situation of financial support for high-quality economic development. Li Yunze, director of the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, said that at present, regions where high-risk institutions are concentrated have formed specific reform and resolution plans, and are being implemented steadily and orderly in accordance with one province, one policy. At the same time, guide banking and insurance institutions to actively cooperate in resolving real estate and local government debt risks. At present, my country's financial industry, especially large financial institutions, operates steadily and has controllable risks. With the gradual resolution and relief of the three major risks of real estate local debt and small and medium-sized financial institutions, financial risks are steadily converging, and the Financial Supervision Bureau will resolutely defend the bottom line of no systemic financial risks. (The Paper)
Pan Gongsheng: Lower the interest rate of existing mortgage loans and unify the minimum down payment ratio for mortgage loans
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, announced at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on September 24 that the interest rates of existing mortgages will be lowered and the minimum down payment ratio for mortgages will be unified, guiding commercial banks to lower the interest rates of existing mortgages to near the interest rates of newly issued mortgages, with an average drop of about 0.5 percentage points. The minimum down payment ratios for first and second mortgages will be unified, and the minimum down payment ratio for second mortgages at the national level will be lowered from 25% to 15%. (Xinhua News Agency)
SHFE adjusts transaction fees for natural rubber futures contracts
Announcement of Shanghai Futures Exchange: Starting from the trading on September 26, 2024 (i.e. the night trading on September 25), the transaction fee for closing the current position of natural rubber futures RU2501 contract will be adjusted to 6 yuan/lot, and the transaction fee for closing the current position for hedging will be adjusted to 3 yuan/lot.
SHFE adjusts price limits and trading margin ratios for fuel oil, petroleum asphalt and butadiene rubber futures contracts
The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that after trading on October 8, 2024 (Tuesday), from the closing settlement of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price limit range and trading margin ratio will be adjusted as follows: the price limit range and trading margin ratio of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, alumina, rebar, hot-rolled coil, stainless steel, natural rubber, and pulp futures contracts will be restored to their original levels; the price limit range of fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and butadiene rubber futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, the hedging transaction margin ratio will be adjusted to 8%, and the speculative transaction margin ratio will be adjusted to 9%.
Shanghai International Energy Exchange: The price limit of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts is adjusted to 7%
The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that after trading on October 8, 2024 (Tuesday), from the closing settlement of the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price limit range and trading margin ratio will be adjusted as follows: the price limit range and trading margin ratio of international copper, crude oil, No. 20 rubber, and container shipping index (European line) futures contracts will be restored to the original levels; the price limit range of low sulfur fuel oil futures contracts will be adjusted to 7%, the hedging transaction margin ratio will be adjusted to 8%, and the speculative transaction margin ratio will be adjusted to 9%.
CSPT finalizes guidance processing fee for spot copper concentrate purchases in the fourth quarter of 2024
The CSPT group held a quarterly meeting on September 24 and finalized the guidance processing fee TC/RC for spot purchases of copper concentrate in the fourth quarter of 2024 at US$35/ton and 3.5 cents/pound, an increase from the previous quarter. The guidance processing fee for spot purchases of copper concentrate in the third quarter of this year was US$30/ton and 3.0 cents/pound.
Wednesday
The CPC Central Committee and the State Council: Make high-quality and full employment a priority for economic and social development
Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on implementing the employment-first strategy to promote high-quality full employment. The opinions propose to strengthen the employment-first orientation of macroeconomic regulation. Make high-quality full employment a priority goal of economic and social development, incorporate it into the national economic and social development plan, promote the coordinated efforts of fiscal, monetary, industrial, price, employment and other policies, and enhance the employment driving force of development. Improve the employment impact assessment mechanism, and carry out job creation and unemployment risk assessment simultaneously with the formulation of major policies, the determination of major projects, and the layout of major productive forces, so as to build an employment-friendly development model. (Xinhua News Agency)
Central Bank: Carry out 300 billion yuan MLF operation, interest rate lowered to 2%
On September 25, 2024, the People's Bank of China carried out a medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation of 300 billion yuan, with a term of one year, the highest bid rate of 2.30%, the lowest bid rate of 1.90%, and the winning rate of 2.00% (the winning rate in August was 2.3%).
USDA quarterly inventory report outlook
Reuters forecasts that for the quarter ending September 1, 2024:
① U.S. soybean stocks are expected to be 351 million bushels. As of June 1, 2024, the stock will be 970 million bushels, and as of September 1, 2023, the stock will be 264 million bushels.
② U.S. corn stocks are expected to be 1.844 billion bushels. As of June 1, 2024, the stock will be 4.993 billion bushels, and as of September 1, 2023, the stock will be 1.36 billion bushels.
③ The US wheat inventory is expected to be 1.973 billion bushels. As of June 1, 2024, the inventory is 702 million bushels, and as of September 1, 2023, the inventory is 1.767 billion bushels. (The USDA quarterly grain inventory will be announced at 0:00 am on October 1, Beijing time)
Thursday
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee meeting: my country's economic fundamentals and favorable conditions such as broad market, strong economic resilience and great potential have not changed
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 26. The meeting pointed out that the fundamentals of my country's economy and favorable conditions such as a broad market, strong economic resilience and great potential have not changed. At the same time, some new situations and problems have emerged in the current economic operation. We must look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly, face up to difficulties, strengthen our confidence, and effectively enhance our sense of responsibility and urgency in doing a good job in economic work. We must focus on key points, take the initiative, effectively implement existing policies, increase our efforts to introduce incremental policies, further improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policy measures, and strive to complete the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year. We must respond to the concerns of the people, adjust the housing purchase restriction policy, reduce the interest rates of existing mortgage loans, speed up the improvement of land, fiscal and taxation, and financial policies, and promote the construction of a new model of real estate development. (Xinhua News Agency)
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting: We must promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 26. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to increase the countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies, ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, and do a good job in the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. It is necessary to issue and use long-term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds to better play the leading role of government investment. It is necessary to lower the deposit reserve ratio and implement a strong interest rate cut. It is necessary to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, strictly control the increase in commercial housing construction, optimize the stock, and improve the quality, increase the loan issuance of "white list" projects, and support the revitalization of idle land. (Xinhua News Agency)
Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its $100 per barrel oil price target and increase production, a major shift that has attracted attention
According to the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia is ready to abandon its unofficial price target of $100 per barrel for crude oil and increase production, according to people familiar with its thinking. This is a sign that the country has accepted the current period of lower oil prices. People familiar with the matter said that Saudi officials have promised to resume production as planned on December 1, even if this will lead to lower oil prices for a long time. This change in thinking represents a major shift for Saudi Arabia, which has led other OPEC+ members to cut production several times since November 2022 in an attempt to maintain high oil prices.
Ministry of Commerce: Conducting anti-discrimination investigation on Canada’s restrictive measures against China
According to the announcement of the Ministry of Commerce, the preliminary evidence and information obtained by the Ministry of Commerce show that Canada's restrictive measures such as additional tariffs on relevant electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products imported from China meet the provisions of Article 7 of the (Foreign Trade Law of the People's Republic of China) "discriminatory prohibitions, restrictions or other similar measures against the People's Republic of China in trade". In accordance with relevant regulations, the Ministry of Commerce decided to initiate an anti-discrimination investigation into Canada's relevant investigated measures from September 26, 2024. (Ministry of Commerce)
Friday
Financial Supervision Bureau: Promote the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to further play its role and effectively promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize
On the afternoon of September 27, the Financial Regulatory Bureau held a system video and telephone conference to study and implement measures to accelerate the implementation of policies and measures to support high-quality economic development. The meeting stressed that it is necessary to vigorously promote the implementation of key tasks and to fully support and ensure the completion of the annual economic and social development goals and tasks with tangible work results. Promote the further role of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, continue to optimize real estate financial policies, and effectively promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize. Promote the implementation of the coordination mechanism for supporting small and micro enterprises' financing, and orderly implement the policy of non-repayment of principal renewal loans to help small, medium and micro enterprises overcome difficulties. Steadily and orderly expand the pilot of equity investment in financial asset investment companies, and strive to form replicable and popularizable practical experience and institutional achievements. For other key tasks, actively cooperate with relevant departments to strengthen policy coordination to ensure that efforts are made in the same direction and a joint force is formed.
CITIC Securities responded that "short orders" were customer behavior, and institutional seats in CITIC Futures lost more than 6.6 billion
Today, rumors about CITIC Securities' "short order explosion" have attracted great attention from the market. A person related to CITIC Securities responded to the reporter that the "short order" rumored in the market is a customer behavior and has no direct relationship with the company. The specific transaction situation needs to be asked to CITIC Futures. Afterwards, the reporter called CITIC Futures as an investor. The company's customer service said that relevant data statistics have not been made yet, and there is no information on customer short order explosions for the time being. The specific situation depends on the later data statistics. According to data from Eastmoney.com, on September 27, in the profit and loss list of institutional seats, CITIC Futures ranked first in losses, with a loss amount of 6.632 billion yuan. (Yicai)
Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Loan Launches Second-hand House "Transfer with Mortgage" Business
The Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced that in order to further reduce the transaction costs of second-hand houses, improve the convenience and timeliness of second-hand housing transaction loans, and enhance the service level of housing provident funds, starting from September 27, 2024, Guangzhou Housing Provident Fund loans will launch the “transfer with mortgage” business for second-hand houses.
my country's international trade surplus in goods in August was the best since statistics were available.
The latest data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange shows that in August 2024, my country's international balance of payments imports and exports of goods and services reached 4.18 trillion yuan, up 4% year-on-year, with a surplus of 420.3 billion yuan, a monthly record high since 2021. Among them, the surplus in goods trade was 572.4 billion yuan, achieving "six consecutive increases" this year, the best level since statistics were available. The scale of imports and exports of services trade increased again, and the deficit remained stable.
Will Shenzhen lift restrictions on home purchases? Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Center: No notification received yet
There are reports that Shenzhen will cancel the remaining important restrictions on home purchases. A staff member of the Shenzhen Housing Provident Fund Management Center responded that they have not received any relevant notice yet, and there are still home purchase qualifications for purchasing ordinary residential properties in Shenzhen. In addition, there are reports that Shenzhen will cancel restrictions on home purchases for non-local residents. The staff member responded that for non-local residents who purchase homes in Shenzhen, they have not received the latest policy adjustment notice and are still following the (Notice on Further Optimizing Real Estate Policies) issued by the Shenzhen Housing and Construction Bureau on May 6 this year. (China Securities Taurus)
Will the remaining important restrictions on home purchases be lifted? Shanghai Real Estate Registration Center: No adjustments have been made at this time
Some foreign media quoted relevant sources as saying that Shanghai and Shenzhen are expected to cancel the remaining important housing purchase restrictions. In this regard, the reporter called the Shanghai Real Estate Registration Center at 962269 and the Shenzhen 12345 government service hotline respectively. The relevant staff all said that the current relevant property purchase restriction policies have not been adjusted and the original policies are still maintained. It is worth mentioning that the cities that currently have purchase restriction policies only include Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin and parts of Hainan. Previously, many industry insiders predicted that the purchase restriction policies in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are likely to be further optimized and adjusted in the future. Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the E-House Research Institute, said, "It is very likely that first-tier cities will adjust, but it is hard to say whether they will be adjusted to a complete release, but the scale will definitely be large." (Blue Whale Finance)
Rumor has it that private equity quantitative neutral strategies have gone bankrupt? Futures professionals: Some products have triggered the risk of forced liquidation
During the trading session on September 27, stock index futures continued to rise. Among them, the CSI 1000 stock index futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, and CSI 500 stock index futures, which are commonly used hedging tools for private equity neutral strategies, once hit the daily limit, with an increase of 10%. The basis changed from discount to premium. According to relevant personnel of futures companies, the back-end trading terminal showed that due to the rapid rise of stock index futures during the trading session, some private equity products that did not have time to replenish margin triggered the risk of forced liquidation. "But today's premium basis is a good opportunity for many private equity funds that opened positions today." Many market participants said. In addition, regarding the subsequent strategy adjustments, the head of a 10 billion private equity fund in Shanghai said, "This does not involve adjustments in strategy. What can be done now is to replenish margin in a timely manner, because the basis fluctuations of futures are mean-reverting and will stabilize in the future." In addition, according to securities dealers, the current DMA business inventory is not large, and there is only two times leverage, which is limited by the fluctuations of neutral strategies. (China Securities Taurus)
Shanghai Stock Exchange delays transfer of funds to stock index futures
In the morning of September 27, the Shanghai Stock Exchange's trading system crashed and funds were transferred to stock index futures. Many people in the futures industry told reporters that the Shanghai Stock Exchange's stock auction transactions in the morning showed an abnormality of slow transaction confirmation, which had an impact on the trading and pricing of stock index futures. "After the Shanghai Stock Exchange's trading system appeared abnormal, under the bullish market, some investors would turn to buy Shenzhen stocks or stock index futures because they could not buy Shanghai stocks, so the increase in stock index futures would be relatively larger, and the basis would be raised more." Guotai Junan Futures Chief Researcher Yu Kan told reporters. There are also senior people in stock index futures who said that after the Shanghai Stock Exchange stocks could not be traded, more funds were placed through stock index futures, and the underlying stocks of stock index futures were affected. (Yicai)
The central bank lowered the 14-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.65%
China's Central Bank: Today, a 14-day reverse repurchase operation of 278 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning rate was 1.65%, which was 1.85% previously.
Unica: Sugar production in central and southern Brazil in the first half of September 2024 was 3.124 million tons
According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association (Unica), in the first half of September, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil was 3.124 million tons, compared with 3.126 million tons in the same period last year. The sugarcane crushing volume was 42.933 million tons, compared with 41.903 million tons in the same period last year. Ethanol production was 2.435 billion liters, compared with 2.132 billion liters in the same period last year. The sugar content of sugarcane was 159.52 kg/ton, compared with 153.41 kg/ton in the same period last year. 47.86% of the cane juice was used for sugar production, compared with 51.04% in the same period last year.
Fed mouthpiece: The Fed's preferred PCE index is not far from the Fed's target
Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece," said the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), showed that the index rose 2.2% in the 12 months ending in August, not far from the Fed's 2% target. A year ago and two years ago, this indicator was 3.4% and 6.6%, respectively. Core PCE (excluding volatile food and energy items) rose 2.7% year-on-year in August. The core inflation rate for the 12 months a year ago was 3.8%, and two years ago it was 5.4%.
Saturday
Biden instructs the U.S. Department of Defense to assess the situation in the Middle East and adjust the military posture if necessary
On September 27 local time, the White House said that after Israel attacked the Lebanese capital Beirut, US President Biden has instructed the Department of Defense to evaluate this and adjust the US military posture in the Middle East if necessary. The White House said that Biden received several briefings on the situation in the Middle East on the 27th and instructed his team to ensure that the US embassy in the region takes all appropriate protection measures.
CFTC releases speculators' net positions in corn, wheat, soybeans
According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) supplemental report, speculators made the following adjustments to CBOT wheat, corn and soybean futures and options positions in the week ending September 24:
1. Wheat: Speculators increased their net short position in wheat by 713 lots to 64,893 lots.
2. Corn: Speculators reduced their net short positions in corn by 1,074 lots to 131,333 lots.
3. Soybeans: Speculators reduced their net short positions in soybeans by 37,102 lots to 88,909 lots.
CFTC releases speculators' net positions in cotton, cocoa, raw sugar and coffee
According to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) supplemental report, speculators made the following adjustments to ICE cotton, cocoa, raw sugar and coffee futures and options positions in the week ending September 24:
1. Cotton: Speculators reduced their net short cotton positions by 9,632 lots to 36,933 lots.
2. Cocoa: Speculators increased their net long position in cocoa by 1,262 lots to 17,678 lots.
3. Raw sugar: Speculators increased their net long positions in sugar by 36,182 lots to 31,933 lots.
4. Coffee: Speculators reduced their net long positions in coffee by 1,982 lots to 41,649 lots.
Fed's Musallem: Fed should cut rates 'gradually'
According to the Financial Times, St. Louis Fed President Musallem said the Fed should resume its "gradual" approach to rate cuts after a larger-than-usual 50 basis point cut earlier this month. Musallem said the U.S. economy could respond "very positively" to looser financial conditions, stimulating demand and extending the time it takes the Fed to get inflation down to 2%. "For me, it's about easing the brakes at this stage. It's about gradually reducing policy restrictions," Musallem said. He is one of the officials who expects rate cuts of more than 25 basis points for the rest of the year, according to forecasts released at this month's meeting.
Israeli army says it has killed Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Nasrallah
The Israeli Defense Forces issued a new statement today saying that the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an airstrike. Lebanon's Hezbollah has not responded to this for the time being. On the evening of September 27, local time, a violent explosion occurred in the southern suburbs of Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Hagari said that the Israeli army launched an airstrike on the headquarters of Lebanon's Hezbollah that day. Israeli and American media reported on the same day, citing Israeli sources, that the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah himself, was the target of the attack.
Sunday
26.3% of the crops have been harvested, and the national autumn grain harvest is accelerating
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' agricultural situation dispatch shows that all regions are accelerating the autumn harvest, and 26.3% of the country's autumn grain has been harvested, 2.1 percentage points faster than the same period last year. At the same time, autumn grain purchases have also been launched. The National Grain and Material Reserves Administration expects that the purchase volume of autumn grain during the peak season this year will be around 200 million tons.
US media: The US believes that Israel is preparing and may launch a "limited ground invasion" against Lebanon
After Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike, CNN and ABC reported late on the 28th that according to US officials, the US believes that Israel is preparing and may launch a "limited ground invasion" against Lebanon. However, US officials stressed that Israel does not seem to have made a decision on whether to launch a ground operation against Lebanon. As of press time, there has been no response from the Israeli side to the relevant news. (Global Times)
The pig-to-grain price ratio on September 25 was 8.05, down 1.59% from September 18.
According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of September 25, the national live pig output price was 18.83 yuan/kg, down 4.08% from September 18; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.34 yuan/kg, down 2.5% from September 18; and the pig-to-grain price ratio was 8.05, down 1.59% from September 18.
The winning rate of the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was lowered to 1.50%
China's Central Bank: Today, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 182 billion yuan was carried out, with the winning rate being 1.50%, compared with 1.70% previously.
The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to promote the "two new" work and achieve greater results
On the morning of September 29, Zhao Chenxin, deputy convener of the inter-ministerial joint meeting and deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, organized a plenary meeting of the inter-ministerial joint meeting to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in, reported the progress and results of the work of increasing support for the "two new" work, studied the current situation and problems, and deployed the next key work. The meeting required that we should enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency to do a good job in the "two new" work, form a joint force for work, and vigorously promote implementation. Strengthen the dispatch of key tasks and focus on solving the problems of blockages. Strictly manage funds and projects to ensure that funds are effective. Strengthen product quality and price supervision to create a good market environment. Smooth the recycling of waste materials and accelerate the promotion of standard improvement actions. Carry out in-depth publicity and interpretation, respond to social concerns in a timely manner, and solidly promote the "two new" work to achieve greater results.
State Council Executive Meeting: Study and deploy the implementation of a package of incremental policies
Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council on September 29. The meeting studied and implemented the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech on the current economic situation and economic work at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and studied and deployed the implementation of a package of incremental policies. The meeting emphasized that it is necessary to implement the clear policies and measures, effectively implement macroeconomic regulation, promote the coordinated efforts of various policies, and make a good combination of punches to focus on solving outstanding problems in economic operations and strive to complete the annual economic and social development goals and tasks. Each policy must clarify the division of responsibilities and speed up the pace of implementation. Policies that are relatively mature should be launched immediately, and policies that need to be further refined and improved should speed up the relevant work and launch them in batches as they mature. At the same time, new incremental policies should be studied in a timely manner according to changes in the situation. (CCTV News)
The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China holds its third quarter 2024 regular meeting
The meeting believed that since this year, macroeconomic control has been intensified, and the prudent monetary policy is flexible, appropriate, precise and effective, firmly adheres to a supportive stance, strengthens countercyclical adjustments, optimizes and improves the monetary policy framework, and comprehensively uses interest rates, reserves, re-lending, and treasury bond trading. and other tools to effectively serve the real economy, effectively prevent and control financial risks, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for economic recovery. The reform of loan market quoted interest rates has achieved remarkable results, the market-based adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates has effectively played its role, the transmission efficiency of monetary policy has been enhanced, and social financing costs have continued to decline. The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market are basically balanced, the current account surplus is stable, foreign exchange reserves are sufficient, the RMB exchange rate floats in both directions, expectations are stable, and it remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level.
Central Bank: Increase financial support for large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-ins of consumer goods
The People's Bank of China's third quarter regular meeting in 2024 pointed out that it will promote the use of refinancing for technological innovation and technological transformation, and increase financial support for large-scale equipment renewal and old-for-new consumer goods. Accelerate the formation of a diversified relay financial service system covering the entire life cycle of technology-based enterprises, help build a strong country in science and technology and achieve high-level scientific and technological self-reliance. Adhere to and implement the "two unshakable" principles, continue to provide financial services to support the development and growth of the private economy, and further clear the bottlenecks and blockages of financing for small, medium and micro enterprises.
The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued opinions on strengthening the clean and efficient use of coal
The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments recently issued opinions on strengthening the clean and efficient use of coal. It is mentioned that by 2030, the green and intelligent development capacity of coal will be significantly enhanced, the production energy intensity will gradually decrease, the storage and transportation structure will continue to be optimized, the quality of commercial coal will steadily improve, the efficiency and clean level of coal use in key areas will be comprehensively improved, and a clean and efficient coal utilization system that is compatible with ecological priority, conservation and intensive, green and low-carbon development will be basically established.
Yemen's Hodeidah hit by intensive airstrikes
On September 29, local time, Hodeidah, Yemen, was hit by intensive air strikes. It is not clear who initiated the air strikes.
Shanghai: The minimum down payment for commercial loans for the first home is adjusted to no less than 15% and for the second home is adjusted to no less than 25%.
According to Jinshi Data on September 29, Shanghai issued a notice on further optimizing the city's real estate market policies and measures. The minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first home in Shanghai is adjusted to no less than 15%; the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the second home is adjusted to no less than 25%; the minimum down payment ratio for second home loans in areas with differentiated policies is adjusted to no less than 20%.
The People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Bureau today issued four financial support policies for real estate
The People's Bank of China and the Financial Regulatory Bureau today issued four financial support policies for real estate:
1. Announcement of the People's Bank of China on Improving the Pricing Mechanism of Commercial Personal Housing Loan Interest Rates (Announcement of the People's Bank of China [2024] No. 11) and answers to reporters' questions;
2. (Notice of the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision on Optimizing the Minimum Down Payment Ratio Policy for Individual Housing Loans);
3. (Notice of the General Office of the People's Bank of China on Optimizing the Requirements for Refinancing of Affordable Housing);
4. (Notice of the People's Bank of China and the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau on extending the term of some real estate financial policies).
In addition, the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism was released today (on the initiative to batch adjust the interest rates of existing mortgage loans); all commercial banks will issue corresponding announcements.
The central bank responded to how the interest rates on existing mortgage loans will be lowered
Relevant officials of the People's Bank of China said that the market interest rate pricing self-discipline mechanism will issue an initiative to guide commercial banks to carry out a batch adjustment of existing mortgage interest rates before October 31, 2024. All commercial banks will issue relevant announcements and batch adjustment details, uniformly reduce the margin of mortgage interest rates on the basis of LPR, and provide convenience for borrowers as much as possible. The vast majority of borrowers can complete the "one-click operation" through online banking, mobile banking and other channels, without having to go to commercial bank branches to handle it. For details, please pay attention to the relevant information released by the official platform of the lending commercial bank in a timely manner. After the batch adjustment is completed, the borrower and lender can also independently negotiate and dynamically adjust the existing mortgage interest rates based on market principles in accordance with the Announcement No. 11 of the People's Bank of China [2024].
Article forwarded from: Jinshi Data