Is there a high probability that BTC will surge in October?

1. Seasonal factors:

According to the monthly return rate of BTC from 2013 to 2023, BTC rose in October in 9 out of 11 years, and 8 of them were surges; the other 2 years were declines; seasonal factors will give traders a strong trend hint, driving the rise of BTC in October;

2. FTX compensation fund repatriation:

FTX plans to distribute more than 160 to its creditors 100 million US dollars, according to the progress, distribution will start in mid-October; after receiving the stablecoins for compensation, creditors will most likely reinvest in cryptocurrencies;

3. Incremental funds from the global interest rate cut wave:

After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time on September 18, it started a trillion-dollar flood this week; the central banks of the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, South Korea, India and other countries will also follow up to accelerate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter. Under the flood, scarce assets such as "water buffalo" BTC will appreciate rapidly;

4. The main uptrend will start in the sixth month after the halving;

Referring to the previous rounds of bull markets, BTC will start the main uptrend 5-6 months after the BTC halving day every four years;

5. The shock wash is sufficient and the accumulation of funds is completed;

From March to September this year, BTC has been inhumanely washed in the 50,000-70,000 range for 6 months, and the car is already very light; according to the on-chain data, the whale's accumulation of funds is close to completion and is ready to go;

In summary, BTC is likely to rise sharply in October this year! There may be some sluggishness in early October, but the performance will be outstanding in the second half of October.