Daily Share

In the market of the past month, the 4h level structure of Bitcoin fluctuated greatly. It first hit 65,000 on August 26, and then made a 4h level correction. My personal prediction at that time was that if the rebound did not exceed 65,500, it would make a 4h level correction to around 55,000 or below, and finally adjusted back to the lowest level around 52,550 and stabilized.

Then on September 7, there was a 4h level rebound from 52550. Initially, I predicted that it would rebound to the range of 60600~62000. After breaking through 62000, our goal was to adjust to 65000, and we thought that if it broke through 65000, it might go to around 66500. The overall rhythm has not changed much for the time being, but we are not very smooth in judging whether the 4h level rebound has ended early.

The market is like this sometimes. Sometimes we see that the structure is almost there and the indicators need to pull back, but after a slight pullback, it continues to rebound upward, making the original rise extend. In this process, the market is ahead of everyone, and we can only passively follow it.

At present, it still needs to be observed whether the 4h level rebound has ended. There is a need for a 4h correction. After all, there is a potential divergence inside. However, whether it can successfully come out depends on the market itself.

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BTC mid- to long-term

Weekly:

Recently, some readers asked me why the weekly direction is still downward at the end of your article. In fact, the upward or downward direction here is just a simple mark. From a rigorous point of view, the weekly direction here cannot be 100% confirmed to be upward, that is, an upward move at the weekly level, because the conditions for confirmation are not sufficient. Of course, from the actual market, there is indeed a high probability that the weekly line will rise from 49,000, that is, the weekly line is likely not to be lower than 49,000, but it has not yet been strictly confirmed.

15476~73777 is a weekly level rise, which took 478 days. From 73777 to 49000 is a weekly level correction, which took 144 days. If it starts from 49000 and is indeed on the third weekly level rise in the figure, then we can see the target of 95000 or 100000+. It is just that it is not completely certain that 49000 is the starting point of the weekly level rise.

 

Daily Line:

At the daily level, as shown by the white arrow on the left, Bitcoin has already gone out of the three daily level structures of down, up, and down, so the weekly level decline starting from 73777 can end around 49000, but this is not 100% certain.

The rebound indicated by the yellow arrow in the above picture is a daily rebound currently in progress. The daily rebound has temporarily rebounded from 49,000 to around 66,000. If the subsequent daily rebound continues to extend upward and breaks through 70,079, then we can confirm that this should be a weekly rebound. That is, the third weekly rise from 49,000 to 90,000 or even 100,000+ is almost certain. As shown by the blue arrow in the above picture.

However, if the current daily rebound cannot exceed 70,000, then we need to pay attention to the strength of the next daily level pullback, which may fall back to 58,000 or lower, as shown by the green arrow in the above figure.

 

4H：

At the 4h level, the third 4h level rebound is currently running, and this is also the third 4h level rebound in the daily level rebound. The first 4h rebound was 49000~65000, the second 4h callback was 65000~52550, and the third 4h level rebound was 52550~current 65986.

Whether the third 4h level rebound has ended here still needs to be observed. If the 4h rebound here cannot break through 66500, then in the short term, we will see a 4h level correction, focusing on 62000, and continue to be bullish after the correction. If the 4h level rebound continues to extend upward and breaks through 66500, there may be room above, and we need to continue to see the extension of the 4h rebound.

 

BTC short term

Due to the rapid changes in the short-term market, the article can only predict the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest changes in the market and use it as a reference only.

1H：

The internal structure of the current 4h-level rebound from 52550 is shown in the figure above. It has the structure of aAbBc, that is, it has formed a two-center upward trend. It has already formed the second center's departure segment c, and segment c is currently in a potential divergence. In other words, if there is a 4h-level callback here, it can come out at any time because the internal structure is complete and has also diverged. Unless the 1h-level rebound here can directly rush to 70,000, there will be no divergence.

To determine whether there will be a 4h level correction here, we can pay attention to the upper edge of the center at 64000. If it falls below this level again, it is believed that there will be a 4h level correction. If it does not fall below this level, the correction will only be at the 15-minute level or 1h level at most.

15M：

At the 15-minute level, the 1h-level rebound that started at 62670 yesterday morning has now gone through three up, down, and up strokes. In the short term, it is expected to have a 15-minute level correction in the early morning. If the correction falls below 64600, it is very likely to have a 1h-level correction, as shown by the blue arrow in the above figure. If the 15-minute level correction does not fall below 64600, it is likely to consolidate a 15-minute level center in the short term, and then continue to rush to 66500.

 

ETH

For Ethereum, my original expectation was that the current third 4h-level rebound would not break through 2800, and then there would be a 4h-level correction to consolidate a 4h-level center, and then the fifth 4h-level rebound would go up to around 2900~3000, starting from 2111 as a whole, and there would be a daily-level rebound to test the resistance of 3000.

Therefore, the current 4h level resistance is in the range of 2700~2800, and it depends on whether it will reach 2800. If it fails, there will be a 4h level correction in the near future.

The current 1h level rebound starting from 2554 also needs to be observed to see whether it can consolidate a 15-minute level center and continue to rush upward to 2700. If the 15-minute level correction does not fall below 2615, there should be another 15-minute level rebound to continue to rush upward. If it falls below, then we should see a 1h level correction.

Trend Direction

Weekly level: Downward direction, extension of weekly decline, theoretically around 49,000, the limit is 45,000~48,000, whether it is over or not still needs to be observed

Daily level: The direction is upward, and the range of 67000~70000 should be continued in the short term

4-hour level: The direction is upward. If it stays above 64,000, it will continue to rebound at the 4h level. If it falls below, it is considered to be a 4h correction.

1-hour level: The direction is upward, and there is a possibility of further upward extension. Pay attention to the short-term 15-minute level callback strength.

15-minute level: The direction is upward. If the short-term 15-minute level correction does not fall below 64,600, it may consolidate and continue to move upward.