Market puzzle and economic warning after rate cut
The Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, and the loose policy has caused heated discussions: Is it a return to normal, or a precursor to recession?
Risk assets are revelling, Bitcoin leads the rise, and the market sees the rate cut as a signal of normalization.
But economic warnings are frequent, and bulls need to be cautious. Unemployment rates have risen in many states, and income and consumption may be under pressure.
LEI has fallen for six consecutive months, and the recession signal is strong. Leading and lagging indicators diverge, warning of historical lows.
The gold-to-crude oil ratio has soared, and risk aversion is strong. Signs of economic slowdown are evident, and investment needs to be cautious.
