The two key data are:
Initial jobless claims are released tonight.
Final value of real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the second quarter.
There often needs to be a specific reason for the market to fall. Many times, macroeconomic factors are often overlooked, but every sharp market move, whether it is up or down, is supported by news. This is why it is so important to pay close attention to these key economic data.
The upward trend of the bitcoin price is a bit lacking in momentum.
The current market does not have much momentum. In fact, we can see from the price trend that it has been fluctuating around the current $63,000 for five days and the price has not gone up or down. On the one hand, the liquidity is worse, which can be seen from the trading volume; on the other hand, no matter whether it is macro or information, there has been no data that can affect the price recently, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has also come to an end. In fact, the inflation data for August has been estimated almost the same. For the Federal Reserve, the unemployment rate data is more important. I don’t know how many friends still remember it. For many friends who don’t want to look at the macro data, just look at one data, that is the unemployment rate.
Looking back at the data on BTC on the chain, the turnover rate is still very low. Investors have no interest in joining in at the current price, both buying and selling, so it is the same today. The main force participating in the turnover is still short-term investors, especially those who bought the bottom last week and are still leaving the market quickly, while investors who have held positions for a longer time are still indifferent.
Many friends have asked whether $64,000 to $69,000 has become a resistance level for the rise in BTC prices. Judging from the current on-chain data, $64,000 to $69,000 is not a resistance level yet, because it has been observed for several months. This range has dropped to a freezing point due to the sell-off in the past month. For example, in the past 24 hours, the BTC turnover in this range was less than 7% of the total turnover rate. It is a bit of a stretch to say that this is a resistance level.
The main reason why prices cannot go up is that investors’ motivation to buy is too weak and they are afraid of any information changes.
This Friday, September 27th, option delivery date
BTC options are also a very important derivative and an important indicator for us to assist in judging market trends. The principle of options is very simple, namely bullish and bearish, but it is mixed with many complex trading logics.
On the last Friday of every month, the largest Bitcoin options trading platform, Derbit, will have a large number of monthly options deliveries. Tomorrow is the last Friday of this month, and there are also a large number of options waiting to be delivered.
Let's take a look at how the market reacts before and after options delivery.
The biggest pain point means, in plain words, that among all the options that are about to be delivered, whether they are bullish or bearish, the point where the buyer makes the least money, and conversely, the point where the seller makes the most money. Seeing this, you should be able to associate something with it.
In conclusion:
The global crazy money printing and flooding mode has started again. At the current time period and price level of the market, there is not much time left for Bitcoin to linger. The second wave of interest rate cuts in November is just around the corner.
Therefore, in the future, if there is a pullback, especially when the daily RSI is below 30, just boldly add positions in batches. There is no need to hesitate. You will not be trapped for long. We are now at the tail end of the mid-term adjustment and the most difficult period has passed.
