SEC Approval of IBIT Options Is One of Bitcoin’s Historic Moments


Bitcoin will extend unique price and narrative support through its own attributes more quickly. For example, gold attributes and technological attributes correspond to different risk preferences. Many "labor-saving" "pseudo-rules" will be broken. For example, Bitcoin follows U.S. stocks and breaks the dollar cycle. It is also a key turning point for traders to reshape the logic of Bitcoin trading. The investment framework needs to be adjusted in time with important moments.


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In short, what will change after this passage:


1. When the U.S. stock market encounters a black swan/panic, you no longer have to sell ETFs directly, but can choose to buy put options for hedging, thereby enriching the original liquidity and reducing selling pressure to some extent.


2. This will be a big step forward for the Crypto market, no less than the launch of contract trading by exchanges. Originally there was only spot trading, but now there is better hedging. BTC has officially become a commodity that can be traded long and short in the regulated market.


3. "Deribit trading is still too complicated and has not been widely used. CME futures require more active management (monitoring)" Hedging positions is too troublesome, and now Bitcoin has ushered in a truly large regulated market, which greatly accommodates liquidity, which means that "the synthetic notional exposure of Bitcoin can be multiplied" (i.e. the face value of the option), which will greatly amplify leverage and liquidity.


4. After this launch, the 2x and 3x long BTC ETFs will be approved faster in the future. When ETH passes this type of derivative ETF, I will also put aside my prejudice against #ETH


5. Due to the constraints of the regulated market, the large fluctuations of BTC may be suppressed, and people will no longer have to worry too much about the risk of a market crash.


Market Analysis


Bitcoin has been rising for several days. It is the weekend so there will not be any big fluctuations. Only when Bitcoin rises and then goes sideways at a high level, will Ethereum and other altcoins have a chance to rise. Yesterday, Ethereum rebounded and some altcoins followed suit. However, Bitcoin made a small correction today and many altcoins fell again!


At present, it is confirmed that the market has reversed. After the interest rate cut cycle begins, liquidity will gradually ease. It will be smooth sailing after breaking through 65,000. What everyone should do is hold the currency. After adjusting for more than half a year, it is not our style to run away after making a little profit. October is the beginning of the fourth quarter and the beginning of the market. The general rise is coming, don't short it blindly.


BTC


Bitcoin is currently starting to pull back at the 4-hour level. Pay attention to the position of 63145 today. Only when the 4-hour closing line stands firmly above this position, will this wave of pullback be considered over. Pay attention to the upper targets/pressure levels near 63765-64500-65150!


If the decline continues today, please pay attention to the support levels below: 62355-61677-61050!


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ETH


Ethereum made up for the rise yesterday. At present, the bulls are fluctuating sideways at the 4-hour level, and the small level has begun to pull back. Pay attention to the position of 2545 today. As long as the 1/2 hour level stands above this position, the small level pullback will be completed and the market will start to rise. Pay attention to the upper targets/pressure levels near 2587-2635-2690!


If the small level continues to pull back today, the support level below will be around 2520-2490-2468 (if it falls below 2520, the 4-hour level will start to pull back)


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After the Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the market did see a round of gains, but it was far from a frenzy. When will the frenzy come?

Current signs show that the frenzy has not yet arrived:


1. BTC’s market share is approaching 59%, but has not yet broken the 60% mark. Funds are diverting to altcoins


2. Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, it did not implement an easing policy. The expectation of loosening monetary policy needs to wait until the economic policy becomes clear after the election. The current rise is mainly driven by optimism. The market generally believes that a rate cut is a positive, which drives up prices.


3. Technical analysis: If Bitcoin can stabilize around 65,000 on a daily basis and continue to stay above 62,850 next week, the trend may turn.


4. Japan maintains interest rates, and the market may see a short-term rally, but this move may be coordinated with the United States to pave the way for capital to be shipped at a high level, so as to support government bonds with the return of funds.


The real bull market may have to wait until the dust settles on the US election, the new government takes office and introduces loose policies, or even when the US economic bubble adjusts.