The following are the research reports of several futures companies exclusively compiled by Jinshi Futures APP, for reference only

Rebar

Trading logic: The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and market expectations for easing are rising; with the National Day holiday approaching, a wave of inventory replenishment is expected to drive demand to pick up; the traditional peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" has increased the stocking demand of downstream steel-using enterprises

Risk factors: This week, rebar production continued to increase, surface demand fell month-on-month, and inventory destocking narrowed; the recovery of steel mill profits led to the continued resumption of production of long and short process steel mills

Focus on events: downstream demand performance; blast furnace hot metal production; steel mill maintenance plan, resumption of production progress; rebar production, table demand changes; steel export data, etc.

Shanghai Gold

Trading logic: The Fed cuts interest rates by 50 basis points; the Fed lowers its 2024 US GDP growth forecast to 2.0%; the Fed's interest rate cut cycle begins

Risk factors: U.S. jobless claims fell slightly last week; Fed Chairman Powell's dovish signals weakened

Focus on events: Changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy; geopolitical events in the Middle East; the US presidential election in November; changes in global gold supply and demand, etc.

Coking coal

Trading logic: Most coal mines maintain normal operation, and the supply side has basically recovered to a relatively high level; the market's expectations for the increase in coking coal supply in the second half of the year are relatively sufficient; blast furnaces resume production slowly, and the increase in molten iron production is weaker than expected

Risk factors: Mainstream steel mills in Hebei, Shandong and other places have raised their tenders for coke purchase prices; the National Day holiday is approaching, and steel mills have a need to replenish their stocks; expectations of domestic monetary easing policies have re-emerged; the number of vehicles passing through customs for Mongolian coal has declined, and subsequent imports are expected to shrink

Focus on events: blast furnace resumption progress; inventory replenishment before National Day; environmental protection policies and safety inspections; price changes in the international coking coal market, etc.

Soybean meal

Trading logic: The U.S. soybean harvest is progressing rapidly, and the output is expected to be very large; the U.S. soybean harvest rate is 6%, exceeding the market expectation of 4%; the drought in Brazil's producing areas continues

Risk factors: The United States raised tariffs on Chinese exports, and Sino-US trade frictions re-emerged; oil mills are facing large-scale maintenance needs, and soybean meal supply pressure is expected to decrease; U.S. soybean weekly net export sales were 1.748 million tons, higher than market expectations; the drought area of ​​U.S. soybeans expanded compared with last week

Focus on events: weather in the main producing areas of the United States and Brazil; the operating rate of domestic oil mills and the arrival volume of imported soybeans; whether soybean planting in South America will go smoothly after September, etc.

soda ash

Trading logic: The overhaul of soda ash plants has gradually ended, and the industry's operation has increased; the output of soda ash is 661,800 tons, an increase of 6.16%; the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.3988 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.58%

Risk factors: The inventory of soda ash in the social sector has decreased in the past two weeks; some companies have received export orders; market rumors that soda ash plants have called for joint production cuts have not yet been confirmed.

Focus on events: the accumulation speed of soda ash inventory; changes in the overall sentiment of the macro and commodity markets; changes in downstream production levels, glass maintenance conditions; soda ash enterprise operating rates; downstream procurement conditions before the two holidays, etc.

Glass

Transaction logic: The cold maintenance of glass production lines slowed down, and the high supply performance continued; the total inventory of sample float glass enterprises nationwide was 74.789 million tons, an increase of 3.3% month-on-month; some manufacturers made concessions on shipments, and the focus of local transactions shifted downward

Risk factors: The national float glass production was 1.1685 million tons, a decrease of 0.46% from the previous month; one production line was shut down for maintenance this week, resulting in a decline in weekly supply; the market's expectations for further stimulus policies in China have increased.

Focus on events: changes in market sentiment and capital trends; the follow-up cold repairs on the supply side and the progress of improvement on the demand side; the strength and intensity of real estate policies, etc.

Disclaimer

The information in this article is compiled from public sources. This article strives to provide accurate and reliable information, but no guarantees are made as to the accuracy and completeness of this information. This article does not constitute personal investment advice. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions based on this information.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data