Some friends asked if the Black Swan is coming soon? I personally think that everyone has entered a misunderstanding. The Black Swan is caused by a sharp drop in the market, which then gave rise to a negative news, so people think that this event is a Black Swan. In fact, subconsciously, people use the decline to calculate the Black Swan. CZ was arrested at that time. If the market plummeted that day, then CZ’s arrest was a Black Swan event, but it didn’t happen. Moreover, Black Swan events often occur during the washout interval in the middle of a bull market. So it is better to say that it is a Manhattan leverage than a Black Swan. It is a matter of entanglement whether it is a Black Swan or not.