According to a recent poll, trust in the media in the United States is now at its lowest point in the past 50 years. In view of the decrease in trust in the media, Grayscale launched a research report pointing out that blockchain prediction markets like Polymarket have the potential to become a source of truth for the new generation.
Media trust continues to decline, raising the issue of "truth"
Gallup's poll shows that Americans' trust in the media has dropped to the lowest point in the past 50 years. In fact, Trump had a conflict with the media in 2016 over the issue of trust. Grayscale’s report further pointed out that as cases of false information continue to increase, nearly three-quarters of American adults believe that the news media has contributed to political polarization, and nearly half express their opinion on the media’s ability to report news fairly and accurately. Almost distrustful.
(Source: GRAYSCALE)
This trend raises several questions:
Is it possible to have truly unbiased information?
How to encourage fact-based reporting?
How do we solve the problem of profit-driven one-sided reporting?
Grayscale directly pointed out that prediction markets like Polymarket have the potential to become a platform for discovering the truth. In fact, during this election campaign, Bloomberg integrated Polymarket’s forecasts into its terminals.
(Strengthening political analysis and forecasting! Bloomberg integrates Polymarket US election data into the terminal)
Monetary incentives stimulate collective wisdom, and the theme of the prediction platform is all-encompassing
Users predict the outcome of events through smart contracts, and Polymarket’s events cover almost any topic, such as politics, sports, pop culture, science or macroeconomics. Prediction markets typically offer binary options (such as yes or no) for a specific outcome. For example, participants bet on whether a specific candidate would win an election. If the candidate's likelihood of winning increases, the value of "yes" shares increases, and if the candidate's likelihood of winning decreases, the value of "no" shares increases.
These dynamics create market-driven odds of specific events occurring, reflecting the collective intelligence of participants. Regardless of personal biases, participants are financially incentivized to provide accurate predictions. Because correct predictions lead to profits, while wrong predictions lead to losses.
Prediction markets date back to 1503 with betting on the next pope. By 1884, election betting became a major activity on Wall Street, and modern prediction markets were born within the past few decades. These include traditional platforms like PredictIt and Kalshi, as well as blockchain-based options like Augur and Polymarket.
(Afraid of affecting Polymarket? CFTC appeals the prediction market Kalshi ruling to pursue concerns about election market manipulation)
Despite concerns about manipulation in prediction markets, these markets are often self-correcting given the role of economic incentives.
Dynamic adjustment capabilities are better than traditional polls, and traditional media began to quote data
Taking the 2024 election as an example, Polymarket’s transaction volume has grown from $7.3 billion in 2023 to $1.37 billion in 2024. It has also become a data source cited by reporters such as The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and Bloomberg.
This year's U.S. presidential election fueled interest in Polymarket and demonstrated the ability to predict dynamic adjustments to the platform, such as an assassination attempt by Trump or Biden dropping out of the race to support Harris Harris. As shown below, the market for the winner of the US presidential election on the platform reflects the fluctuations in odds based on these political events, generating $776 million in trading volume as of September 4.
(Source: GRAYSCALE) Blockchain technology is beneficial to the transparency of prediction platforms and governance communities to decentralize decision-making.
Polymarket is built on the Polygon chain and records each event-based contract and its solution on the chain by cooperating with the oracle machine. If disagreements arise, the oracle will find a solution through community voting, which is also recorded on the chain. This mechanism ensures that market disputes are resolved without interference from centralization, arbitrariness or potential bias.
In addition, the permissionless and 24-hour operation of the blockchain allows people around the world to use the Polymarket platform without any barriers and at low cost. In contrast, many Web 2 prediction platforms may have identity restrictions. However, this is also why Polymarket faces regulatory risks in some areas. . Taking Taiwan as an example, there are cases of violating election laws by predicting the presidential election.
(Polymarket election gambling scandal, how did I get caught?)
Implementing user-friendliness, is Polymarket the key to diversion in this round of currency circles?
On the other hand, Polymarket’s intuitive user interface makes it accessible even to non-cryptocurrency native users. This is a common problem in most blockchain applications. People without relevant knowledge background have a very high cost to become familiar with on-chain operations. In addition, Polymarket has done something that most blockchain applications cannot do, attracting the attention and mainstream credibility of traditional institutions and media. Perhaps Polymarket may be the key to adding outside liquidity to the blockchain in this cycle.
It’s worth noting that Polymarket focuses on the product itself, rather than the business value of tokenization. At the same time, users use the service without knowing that the backend uses blockchain technology, and it also implements its user-friendly concept.
This article Media trust is gone! Grayscale Report: Blockchain prediction market has the potential to become a source of truth first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
