The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on the 19th. That night, the U.S. stock market rose and fell, and Bitcoin was also affected. After the U.S. stock market closed, Bitcoin began to strengthen and pulled out a positive line. Due to Powell's speech after the interest rate meeting, the market generally interpreted this rate cut as a positive. After the U.S. stock market opened high on the evening of the 20th, it also had a stable trend.
Judging from the current trend of Bitcoin, due to the previous decline, there is a divergence between the large and small cycles. Coupled with the recovery of news, it will maintain a mild upward trend in the short term, with upper pressures of 64,000 and 67,000.
Let's focus on altcoins. Most of them have experienced a sharp decline and are basically at the bottom range of the weekly level. They have fallen a little bit and can't fall any further. Therefore, altcoins are relatively strong in this Bitcoin rebound. Many of them have pulled out more than ten points of big positives, and they will continue to maintain a strong momentum in the next few days. Like the Bitcoin ecosystem-related varieties we mentioned earlier, several meme varieties have risen well. The most eye-catching one is ckb. With the news of listing on the largest exchange in South Korea, the highest increase has been nearly 3 times, which is really amazing!
At present, some varieties in everyone's hands are still trapped, and the market of copycats will go for a while, so just hold on! Japan's latest interest rate decision on the 20th. The last time Japan raised interest rates, it triggered a big crash. This time, 53 analysts including investment banks such as Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg surveyed unanimously agreed that the Bank of Japan will remain on hold on September 20 and maintain the policy interest rate at 0.25%. If so, the 20th will also be a calm day. As long as there is no such black swan outside, the big pie can go on for a short while with peace of mind.
Looking at the market in the long run, is the bull market coming? I don’t think so. A 50 basis point interest rate cut is a relatively radical intervention plan. The US economy is probably not as good as Powell himself said… And the precedents of a 50 basis point interest rate cut are basically hard landings. Most of the time in the future, there will be a financial tsunami. We have to guard against this! It’s just that no one can predict the time node, so we can only take it one step at a time. After all, Mr. Buffett is also holding a huge amount of cash for risk aversion, so we have to keep this string in mind. We estimate that there will still be a big drop, and then the bull market will really appear with the blessing of the US printing press!
To sum up, it is recommended that short- and medium-term players reduce their positions when the price reaches around 67,000, and keep cash on hand to deal with future uncertain risks. Long-term players should do a good job of position management. If there is a big decline in the market, they should have capital reserves to cover their positions. They should be prepared for both offense and defense. Never do contracts, as it is easy to fall before dawn!
