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Macro News

1. Jin Xiandong, director of the Policy Research Office and spokesman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that it is necessary to speed up the full implementation of the determined policy measures, coordinate the "hard investment" of project construction and the "soft construction" of policies, planning, mechanisms, etc., promote the construction of government investment projects such as "double heavy" as soon as possible and form physical workload; promote the implementation of the "two new" policy measures as soon as possible to ensure that the real money benefits reach enterprises and people. At the same time, strengthen policy pre-research and reserve, and launch a batch of incremental policy measures that are highly operational, effective, and accessible to the people and enterprises.

2. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point rate cut at each meeting from November 2024 to June 2025, compared with its previous forecast of quarterly rate cuts in 2025.

3. Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, compared with its previous forecast of a 50 basis point cut, and maintains its forecast of a 125 basis point cut in 2024.

4. US media: The United States no longer expects Israel and Hamas to reach a ceasefire agreement before the end of Biden’s term.

5. U.S. Senate Majority Leader Schumer: The Senate will submit a temporary bill to avoid a partial government shutdown.

6. The Ministry of Finance reported on cases of accountability for hidden debts of local governments: for illegal and irregular behaviors such as new hidden debts and false debt repayments, the Ministry of Finance has implemented the policy of "once discovered, investigated and held accountable".

7. The Ministry of Natural Resources introduced that in 2023, 4 billion-ton oil fields and 4 100 billion cubic meter gas fields were newly discovered in China. The dominant position of tungsten, molybdenum, antimony, crystalline graphite, phosphate and other minerals was further consolidated, and major breakthroughs were made in the prospecting of lithium, cobalt, nickel and other minerals. From January to August this year, a total of 868 prospecting rights were transferred nationwide, an increase of 194.1% year-on-year.

Global futures market changes

1. Domestic commodity futures closed at night, energy and chemical products rose across the board, low sulfur fuel oil rose 3.26%, fuel oil and PTA rose more than 2%. Black series generally rose, iron ore rose 3.24%, coke, hot coil and coking coal rose about 2%. Most agricultural products fell, soybeans fell 2.34%, soybean meal fell 1.81%, rapeseed meal fell 1.69%. Basic metals closed up across the board, Shanghai lead rose 1.65%, Shanghai tin rose 1.14%, Shanghai copper rose 1.03%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.71%, and alumina rose 0.7%. Shanghai gold rose 0.47%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.49%.

2. International oil prices rose across the board, with the November contract for U.S. crude up 1.77% to $71.12 per barrel, and the November contract for Brent crude up 1.52% to $73.99 per barrel.

3. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.5% to $2,611.7 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.36% to $31.105 per ounce.

4. The main agricultural futures contracts of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower across the board, with soybean futures down 0.07% to 1013.25 cents per bushel; corn futures down 1.7% to 405.75 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 1.61% to 566.5 cents per bushel.

5. London base metals closed higher collectively, with LME copper futures up 1.47% to $9,539/ton, LME zinc futures up 1.85% to $2,939.5/ton, LME nickel futures up 0.63% to $16,335/ton, LME aluminum futures up 0.14% to $2,540/ton, LME tin futures up 1.29% to $32,000/ton and LME lead futures up 2.21% to $2,082.5/ton.

Black hot news

1. According to Mysteel, as of the week of September 19, rebar production increased for the fourth consecutive week, factory inventory turned from decline to increase, social inventory decreased for the eleventh consecutive week, and the surface demand turned from increase to decrease. Among them, the rebar production was 1.9423 million tons, an increase of 63,100 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.36%.

2. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in August 2024, China's steel bar production was 12.553 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.3%; the cumulative production from January to August was 129.685 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%. In August, China's iron ore production was 73.637 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.0%; the cumulative production from January to August was 696.496 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%.

3. According to Mysteel, the total inventory of imported sintering powder of 114 new steel mills was 26.043 million tons, down 54,600 tons from the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintering powder was 1.1504 million tons, up 13,300 tons.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. According to foreign media reports, Indonesia plans to reduce the export tax on palm oil at the beginning of next month in order to support the country's farmers as demand decreases. This will be of great benefit to Indian importers, especially after the Indian government raised the import tax on crude soybean oil, crude palm oil and crude sunflower oil to 27.5%.

2. According to the China Feed Industry Association, in August 2024, the national industrial feed output was 27.83 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. The proportion of soybean meal in compound feed and concentrated feed was 12.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points.

3. According to the National Grain and Oil Information Center, the soybean import arrival volume in September-November is expected to be 7.6 million tons, 7.3 million tons and 7.5 million tons respectively. As the imported soybeans decrease, the operating rate of oil mills and soybean oil production will decline.

4. Data released by sugarcane company CTC showed that as of the end of August, the sugarcane yield per unit area in central and southern Brazil in 2024/2025 fell 7.4% year-on-year due to dry weather and fires in sugarcane fields.

5. According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises of Shanghai Steel Union, the daily output of live pigs by key breeding enterprises nationwide on September 19, 2024 was 241,859 heads, up 6.02% from yesterday. The market enthusiasm for selling pigs is generally high, the short-term supply is sufficient, and the output volume shows a month-on-month upward trend.

6. According to foreign media reports, Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to decrease in 2024 because the country's increase in biodiesel blending will increase domestic consumption. Fadhil Hasan, head of the trade and promotion department of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association, said during the Globoil conference that the country's exports in 2024 may fall by 2 million tons from the same period last year to 30.2 million tons.

7. The Indonesian Ministry of Finance issued new palm oil taxation rules. According to the latest regulations of the Ministry of Finance, the tax rate for crude palm oil is set at 7.5% (instead of 6%), which is based on the government's reference price.

8. The International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its forecast for global wheat production in 2024/25, as the downward revision of EU production was largely offset by improved prospects in Australia. It estimated global wheat production in 2024/25 to be 798 million tons, down 1 million tons from the previous forecast. The IGC maintained its forecast for global soybean production in 2024/25 at 419 million tons.

9. The latest USDA drought report shows that as of the week of September 17, about 33% of the soybean planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 26% in the previous week and 53% in the same period last year. About 26% of the corn planting area in the United States was affected by drought, compared with 18% in the previous week and 58% in the same period last year.

10. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. net export sales of soybeans in 2024/2025 were 1.748 million tons, compared with 1.474 million tons in the previous week; the net sales of soybeans in 2025/2026 were 8,000 tons, compared with 0 tons in the previous week.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of September 19, the total inventory of sample float glass enterprises nationwide was 74.789 million TEUs, a month-on-month increase of 2.391 million TEUs or 3.3%, rising for six consecutive weeks to a one-and-a-half-year high. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.3988 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons from last Thursday, an increase of 3.58%.

2. According to the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ), Japan's commercial crude oil inventories fell by 59,000 kiloliters to 11.21 million kiloliters in the week ending September 14, while gasoline inventories rose by 95,000 kiloliters to 1.59 million kiloliters. As of the week ending September 14, the average operating rate of Japanese refineries was 77.3%, compared with 75.9% in the week ending September 7.

3. According to Enterprise Singapore (ESG), Singapore's fuel oil inventories rose by 1.69 million barrels to a two-week high of 18.545 million barrels in the week ended September 18. Singapore's middle distillate inventories fell by 680,000 barrels to a 10-week low of 10.239 million barrels. Singapore's light distillate inventories fell by 1.014 million barrels to a six-week low of 14.085 million barrels.

4. According to Argus, an independent international energy and commodity price assessment agency, on the evening of September 19, India's RCF issued a new round of urea bidding, with the bid opening date on October 3 and the validity period until October 14, and requiring the goods to be shipped from the loading port before November 20. The recent strong monsoon rainfall has boosted India's domestic urea sales and increased India's import demand.

5. The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China's soda ash (sodium carbonate) production in August was 3.188 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 27.4%; the soda ash (sodium carbonate) production from January to August was 25.600 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. China's synthetic rubber production in August was 791,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%.

6. According to Wind data, as of September 19, the methanol inventory in East China ports was 498,400 tons, compared with 580,900 tons in the same period last week, a decrease of 82,500 tons from the previous month.

7. According to the EIA natural gas report, as of the week ending September 13, total U.S. natural gas inventories were 344.5 billion cubic feet, an increase of 58 billion cubic feet from the previous week and 194 billion cubic feet from the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. At the same time, it was 274 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average, an increase of 8.6%.

8. The production and supply of natural rubber have been hampered by typhoons, rainfall and other weather conditions. Malaysia, once the world's largest natural rubber producer, currently has an annual output of less than one-fifth of its peak. Data shows that in the past month, the average price of Malaysian rubber has risen by more than 5%.

9. According to CNOOC, the simultaneous commissioning of Asia’s first cylindrical offshore oil and gas processing plant “Haike No. 1” and Asia’s first deepwater jacket platform “Haiji No. 2” located in Shenzhen waters can extend the exploitation life of the Liuhua Oilfield by 30 years.

Metal Hot News

1. The latest data released by the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) shows that the global zinc market supply surplus will drop to 14,000 tons in July 2024, compared with a surplus of 36,400 tons in June. The global lead market supply surplus was 1,500 tons in July 2024, compared with a shortage of 5,200 tons in June.

2. According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the national alumina weekly operating rate fell by 0.1 percentage point from the previous week to 83.41%.

3. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time unexpectedly fell last week, indicating that job growth accelerated in September. In the week ending September 7, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people fell by 14,000 to 1.829 million, falling from the more than two-and-a-half-year high reached in July.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Macroeconomic factors at home and abroad have disturbed the price of rebar. How should we view it in the future?

CITIC Futures analysis shows that steel mills' profits are expanding, especially rebar profits are relatively rich, production has recovered normally, hot-rolled coils are near the break-even line, and production is slightly lower than the same period, and the overall supply pressure is not great. Affected by typhoons and holidays, this week's surface demand has declined. It is expected that there will be a wave of replenishment to drive demand recovery as the National Day holiday approaches. The current inventory of building materials is low and is being rapidly reduced. There is a shortage of specifications in some areas. The phased mismatch between supply and demand and the relaxation of domestic policy operating space brought about by the Fed's interest rate cut will lead to a strong short-term operation.

2. The fundamentals of glass are still weak. Will there be a rebound opportunity in the short term? ​

Everbright Futures analysis pointed out that in terms of supply, production has declined, but inventory is still increasing. Last week, the daily output of float glass in China was 167,000 tons, down 0.4% from the previous month. The total inventory of sample float glass enterprises in China was 72.398 million tons, up 1.3% from the previous month and 73.8% from the previous year. In terms of demand, the downstream real estate market has improved slightly, and the current demand for glass is mainly rigid. Overall, the fundamentals of glass are still weak, but after a sharp drop in the previous period, it is worth paying attention to whether there is a rebound opportunity in the short term.

Today's important futures data and events at a glance

1. At 9:00 on September 20, the People's Bank of China released the September loan market quotation rate (LPR). Previously, the 1-year and 5-year LPR were lowered by 10 basis points respectively in July. Zhang Yi, president of China Construction Bank, said at the bank's 2024 mid-term performance conference that major banks have lowered their deposit rates at the same time, which can effectively offset the negative impact of the decline in LPR this year, and the impact on the full-year net interest margin can be said to be minimal.

2. September 20th is to be determined, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of September 19th. Previously, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports as of September 12th was 153.8354 million tons. The black series has stopped falling and fluctuated recently. Pay attention to whether the iron ore inventory at the ports can decrease and boost the black series.

3. September 20th is to be determined, and a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil will begin.

4. September 20 (tbd) The International Aluminium Institute (IAI) will release the August global primary aluminium production report. In July, global primary aluminium production was 6.194 million tonnes, compared with 6.048 million tonnes in the same period last year.

5. September 20th (tbd), ITS/Amspec/SGS announced Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 20. According to Malaysia's independent inspection agency AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 to 10 were 412,771 tons, a decrease of 5.2% from 435,413 tons exported in the same period last month. Pay attention to whether the trend of decreasing palm oil exports will continue. If it continues to decrease, it may be bearish for palm oil prices.

The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data