As we can see, the first rate cut by the Fed was not 25%, but 50%. From the tough stance of continuing to raise interest rates before the year, to no rate cuts in the middle of the year, to only one rate cut, to only two rate cuts, to three rate cuts with a range of 100 basis points, to a 25 basis point cut in September, and now a 50 basis point cut. I believe that even people with little financial knowledge will question: the beacon of world civilization, the most powerful elite in the world, why do Fed officials look at macro issues so casually? Could it be that the macro situation can reverse in two levels within a few months and make completely opposite decisions? $BTC $ETH
People all over the world have also understood, oh, it turns out that this is possible. The Federal Reserve also knows that this kind of play damages its credibility. As the saying goes, it is ugly. In the past, when the situation was good, it pretended to do something and made up the data. Now it is too lazy to do anything and just makes fake data. Because the liquidity of US stocks and US bonds, including the currency circle, is not enough, it can only repeatedly adjust expectations, release interest rate hikes and rate cuts, increase positions in the futures contract market, and alleviate its liquidity problems. In fact, it is not afraid of your long or short positions, but it is afraid that you hold the money and do not bet.
However, joking aside, you have to admire the Fed's ability to manipulate the market, that is, no matter how you bet, there will be reasons to make you lose convincingly, and you will not doubt that it is the casino's problem. This wave of 50 basis points, once it dropped so quickly, it fueled the FOMO sentiment of those who wanted to take advantage of the current high interest rate to take advantage of the future interest rate spread and were ready to take over long-term US bonds. However, I estimate that there will not be too many people who dare to take over the long-term US bonds, given the expectation of future dollar depreciation. The main battlefield is still in the US stock market.
The situation of the cryptocurrency market is similar to that of the U.S. stock market, both of which are at historical highs. I think this 50 basis point recession expectation is bound to be hyped. As far as I know, there are many people in the major groups who are fully invested in altcoins. It is very likely that there is a considerable part of the funds that are still in a state of risk aversion and wait-and-see. But rest assured, as long as a +5% large positive line is pulled up, the price of Bitcoin will reach the range of 68,000-70,000, and these funds will basically be fully delivered to kill in. At this time, the last wave of inducement will be made, and then the negative news of the possible interest rate increase of 0.25-0.5 in Japan's interest rate meeting will be killed, and the last wave of panic and leveraged funds will be killed. And this speed must be fast, otherwise it will not work. It is predicted that the price may test the previous low and may come to around 48,000. It is not ruled out that the extreme panic will come to 42,000, and then it will rise in V. At that time, the positions of altcoins will basically return to zero. Those who still don't sell are real warriors, and these people should make money.
This is also the last wave of washout before the bull market, because retail investors are not afraid of you smashing the market again, knowing that you will cut interest rates and release a lot of money later, and the effect will be greatly reduced at that time. After this wave ends, it can basically be said to be a real main rising wave, but these people still can't make any money. They may sell their chips at any position of 6w, 6w4, 6w8, 7w after experiencing a ghost story, and then continue to take over at a high position. But this is also the charm of the market. High certainty means low returns, and high returns correspond to uncertainty. When no one doubts whether this is a bull market, it means that the market is about to end and the returns will disappear.
As prices continue to rise, more and more smart money will begin to deploy short positions, but because market optimism has not yet reached its peak, funds continue to leverage and buy at all costs, pushing prices higher. At this time, the main force that has completed shipments adds the final fuel to the fire, pushing prices higher. In this process, the liquidation of huge short positions is superimposed again, and traders are forced to buy and close their positions at high levels. Therefore, prices will further rise rapidly and frantically to an exaggerated position.
For short-term traders, perhaps the real money-making opportunity is often the tail-end market that accelerates to the top. Because this period of market has a large increase, high volatility, and a short time, especially for high-leverage contracts, there is a high probability that if you guess the direction correctly, you will become rich overnight. One thought to heaven, one thought to hell, one day in the cryptocurrency circle, ten years in the human world, the epic is staged again after 4 years. Whether it is a sudden wealth or a sudden death, it depends on your performance. #BTC #token2049 #新币挖矿HMSTR #币安上线NEIRO #美联储宣布降息50个基点
