Entering September, the domestic soybean meal market was frequently disturbed by news, the negative impact on the supply side weakened, and the demand rebounded temporarily, and the spot price rose slightly from the bottom. Zhuochuang Information believes that the short-term market supply and demand contradiction is still the main factor suppressing the continued upward trend of spot prices. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate in late September.
The spot price center moves upward and the basis is further repaired
With the gradual realization of the expectation of bumper harvest, the negative impact showed signs of weakening, and the soybean meal price began to rebound from the bottom in mid-August. According to Zhuochuang Information data, as of September 14, the average spot price of 43% soybean meal in China was 3,078 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton from the low of 2,861 yuan/ton on August 14. The spot basis also showed a further recovery trend, with the basis in Northeast China and North China turning from negative to positive, and other regions gradually approaching flat water.
Holiday stocking demand boosts transaction and delivery, which has improved temporarily
Entering September, the transaction sentiment in the domestic market has improved. On the one hand, the purchasing enthusiasm has increased under the influence of the terminal's buying sentiment and not buying falling sentiment; on the other hand, as the National Day is approaching, downstream feed mills have a demand for stocking up, and the inventory of feed raw materials has increased slightly. Judging from the factory pick-up data, since late August, the factory's daily pick-up volume has increased to more than 180,000 tons, which further confirms that the soybean meal market has ushered in a phased improvement in demand. According to Zhuochuang Information data monitoring, the raw soybean and soybean meal inventories of key domestic oil mills have declined from a high level. As of the week of September 20, the factory's raw soybean inventory was 6.694 million tons and the soybean meal inventory was 1.26 million tons. Judging from the data, the factory inventory is still in a high range, and the short-term inventory pressure still needs to be further digested.
The international market is bullish and supports prices
After the release of the September USDA report, the key data of the US soybean market did not change much, among which the yield data was stable month-on-month, and the ending inventory was reduced by 10 million bushels month-on-month, which basically met the market's previous expectations. The smooth landing of the September supply and demand report also indicated that the US soybean bumper trading has come to an end for the time being. The focus of the market has gradually shifted. At present, the Brazilian production area is experiencing the most severe drought in 40 years. Affected by this, the new season soybean planting has not yet started. In addition, the drought has caused the water level of the main rivers for grain transportation in South America to drop to a historical low. Although the US soybean report did not make any adjustments to the production of Brazilian new season soybeans, the market is still quite worried. In the future, attention will be paid to the improvement of weather in the Brazilian production area and the growth period of late-sown soybeans.
In the United States, the central region is also facing the problem of drought. The water level of the Mississippi River has dropped, pushing up barge freight rates. According to Zhuochuang Information data monitoring, the premium and discount quotes for CNF shipments in the US Gulf in October/November/December are 275/270/250 cents/bushel, up 20-35 cents/bushel from August, and the discounts in recent months remain strong. Judging from the sales of US soybeans, the recent procurement progress has accelerated, but the procurement gap from November to February of the following year is still large. There are potential positive drivers on both the cost side and the supply side of raw imported soybeans.
In summary, the domestic market inventory pressure still needs to be further digested in the short term, the negative impact of international market supply has gradually faded, and the potential positive driving force has emerged. Zhuochuang Information believes that the spot price of soybean meal will fluctuate in late September. With the easing of inventory pressure, the upward momentum in the fourth quarter may be further enhanced. Risk factors: The anti-dumping investigation in the rapeseed meal market may cause a series of chain reactions to disturb the soybean meal market; the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut policy in September may boost the commodity market.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
