The Mid-Autumn Festival has passed, and I haven’t updated any articles in the past few days. I took this opportunity to give myself a holiday.
If you ask me if I have adjusted my state, the answer is of course no. It is easy to go from frugality to extravagance, but difficult to go from extravagance to frugality. I was very happy when I was having fun, but when I got back to writing, I started scratching my head again.
But now the condition is much better than before. This is Thirteen's job and he must stick to it.
Today is a very important day. Each of us should remember this history. We really have no right to forgive the invaders on behalf of our ancestors.
Especially for those of us in the cryptocurrency circle, although we have many dissatisfactions with some things, it is undeniable that some things abroad are actually worse.
We must look at a problem from all aspects, and not just focus on one point and think that it is not okay.
So many people from Hong Kong went to the UK back then, what’s the situation now?
Being in such an environment, we have no ability to change it and can only avoid it, avoid anything illegal and non-compliant from happening to us.
For example, reduce the number of deposits and withdrawals, protect your bank card and do not lend it to others.
Don't tell others that you are in the cryptocurrency circle and how much money you have made. The more you earn, the more cautious you should be.
The world is full of unknowns, and we are powerless to do anything about most things. We can only protect ourselves carefully.
Don't have a heart of a saint and be angry every day. It is responsible for you and your family to avoid being involved in cause and effect as much as possible.
If cause and effect come knocking on your door, please use the weapon of law to protect yourself. Although the process will be difficult, there are still thousands and millions of ordinary people standing behind us. Media communication + law are enough to protect us.
2，
The final interest rate decision will be announced at 2 a.m. tomorrow.
Is it 25 or 50 basis points? The whole market is guessing, and the two have different effects on boosting the market.
This wave of increase can be seen as the early digestion of 25 basis points of positive news. If it was only 25 basis points, the market might have sold the news.
Thirteen people think that 25 basis points is more likely, because interest rate hikes also need to be rhythmic. The Federal Reserve cannot use too much force right away. What if it uses too much force?
After all, such a huge economic price has been paid to raise interest rates and reduce inflation, and it has now been finally brought under control. If the interest rate is lowered too drastically, it is likely to cause harm to the market.
Therefore, Thirteen predicts that they might test the waters with 25 basis points first, see the market reaction, and then act accordingly.
If it is 50 basis points, the market will experience a surge in the short term.
Friends who have orders in hand just need to continuously move up the take-profit position.
But risks still exist. The investment market is not 100% safe and no one can predict the future, especially something that the whole world is paying attention to.
Looking at history, every time there is a rate cut in a rate hike cycle, the market always responds with a wave of pullbacks. Will history repeat itself this time?
Let's wait and see.
3，
Many people say, Thirteen, you have said so much, as an ordinary investor, how to face the uncertainty after the interest rate cut?
Since rises and falls are unpredictable, we can only protect ourselves to the best of our ability.
We can control our positions. Shisan has told everyone in the circle before that we should try to hold enough cash on hand and separate long-term positions from short-term positions. Long positions should not be moved, and short-term positions can be used for volatility arbitrage.
At present, the chips we received at around 58,000 have now moved the stop-profit level up to 59,000. Even if the market falls sharply in the future, we still have enough cash in our hands.
I used to be a loser, and I know that everyone’s biggest pain point is laziness. After buying, they are reluctant to sell, and after selling, they hesitate and dare not buy again.
All you can do is watch the risk come upon you!
I can only watch the opportunity slip away from my fingertips!
As long as we have 30% to 40% cash positions in our hands, it is enough to face any risks. Friends in the Thirteen Circles mainly hold spot and mainstream currencies.
Therefore, the bigger the wind and waves tonight, the more expensive the fish will be.
The more it falls, the cheaper our bargaining chips will be, and the greater our profits will be in the future bull market.
If the market goes up, 60% to 70% of our positions will be enough for us to make money.
If there is an extreme plunge in the market, at the right position, we can even increase leverage on Bitcoin and Ethereum. When the time comes, we will notify everyone in the group.
4，
Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night.
Thirteen will set the alarm and observe the situation at any time.
However, no matter how volatile the market is tonight.
These are all short-term behaviors. In the long run, the probability that Bitcoin will reach a value beginning with 8 by the end of the year is very high, so there is nothing to worry about.
Judging from the current situation, the market has started to fall, indicating that it is not optimistic about a 50 basis point interest rate cut.
When you reach the take-profit point, you must resolutely take the profit and don’t be reluctant.
There are many opportunities to make money in the cryptocurrency circle, and even more opportunities to lose money. As long as we can survive in this circle for a long time, we will be the final winners.
Judging from the current on-chain data, major institutions and whales have been deploying at low levels for a long time. Retail investors see the gains and losses of a city or a place, while they see the transition between the bull and bear cycles. From this point of view, it is reasonable for retail investors to lose money.
The only way we make money is to dance to their tune.
If you pay too much attention to short-term market conditions, you are destined to be a loser in the cryptocurrency world.
If Shisan was not a self-media person, he would even drive around and not pay attention to anything. He would come back to sell when the bull market comes and wait for the next bear market to continue bottom fishing.
It is actually possible to make money in a bear market as long as we go short in the opposite direction. This requires a lot of skills and experience.
At that time, there will be various different voices in the market. Having just experienced a crazy bull market, many people do not think that a bear market is coming.
The market will also fluctuate and continue to fall, and finally the bull market will end amid wailing.
At that time, we will not touch the bad luck in the thirteen circles. Only when the downward trend is confirmed, we can open a small position with a low multiple.
Then you can make a spot layout at a low level, or you can add leverage...
Of course, this is a later story. The most important thing now is to overcome the difficulties ahead.
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